Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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This storm alarms me mostly because it did weaken somewhat. People seem to be breathing a collective sigh of relief, that or feeling the weakening will become a trend. I would love nothing more than have this hurricane dissolve, sadly, that is not going to happen. Right now, I think the nightmare scenario would be to start moving due west with shear relaxing, slide over the warmer waters and and hit even further left.
Keep in mind, at this point, nothing is really out of bounds for this storm, It's behaving exactly the way it should, as someone said on here last night, it's just we don't have the tools to understand what it's going to do yet. So it looks like the storm is misbehaving from our imperfect understanding.
Also, A thank you of graditude to all the Mets who have tried their best to understand this storm. Even with all our fancy tools, weather forecasting is problematical at best. (maybe I should go back and get a Masters Degree and join on somewhere LOL... it could be fun....or a nightmare of stress on days like this)
Hang in there everyone...and once this one is done, take a deep breath and we'll start looking at .
Is it December yet?
and knowing this year... We still might have something brewing!
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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clark
with the recent changes on how long before you can give us the inside scoop on what is going on??
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Storm Cooper, Good to see you posting again. I have noticed quite a few models (Ukmet, , and ) all bring as a Strong TS or Minimal hurricane very close to our area (Panhandle). Yet still keeps the storm over land into Georgia. Not that I disagree with them but I've only seen the with that solution. Havent seen any other models except the ones I mentioned. So what are your thoughts? Im not as concerned here as you probably should be, but I've been very intrested in hearing your thoughts about where a possible second landfall may be, if there is one. Thanks
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TinaLee
Unregistered
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Channel 6 is using a forecase model.
This model shows another path that moves the storm along the coast instead of making landfall near Vero Beach, Fla.
According to them, the model would keep the strong winds in the storm's northern quadrant away from Central Florida. I think it's wishful thinking on their part, but that's just my call.
Can anyone else who is more knowledgeable explain this model they are using that seems so divergent from all others right now?
TinaLee
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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WMKG in Orlando always does that.. They always adjust the track to be different. Hoping I guess one time they will be right.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
he probably has a real job and hasn't had time to do it. nobody is paid here, and when most get a chance they will add their input.
Yeah! By day, President of the largest property management staffing company in America, but by night... !
Skeetobite is a hobby. Maps are updated as info and time becomes available.
Be safe everyone-
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The storm is going to move with some wobbles through the islands. Despite their small size, they do have some affect in a frictional nature. I still have the thought in the back of my mind of a stall.
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TinaLee
Unregistered
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Skeeto-
I have to say your images are absolutely amazing! I can hardly wait until the new ones come up.
That said, the latest one seems harder for me to understand. Is it because it is size adjusted, more 'close-up' on the state?
Keep them coming - from here in Orlando they offer me a real look at what's coming.
TinaLee
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jester
Unregistered
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I saw an interview with max mayfield(dir of the miami) on NBC 6 last night in south florida. He said they were using the for their official track. i'm not sure if that has changed today, but that might be why their track goes to georgia rather than the panhandle.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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it's 20 miles wide and open to the SW
but it is there...
Not what I want to hear.
Mark
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edwardecfl
Unregistered
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channel 6 was still calling for 40-60 mph winds in kissimmee during charlie before i lost power-this was as 80mph winds were blowing down trees in my yard !
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I'm not really concerned as S FL is where the real problems will be. As for us up here, I'm just patient. Also keep in mind how many times the track has changed. I'll keep watching and see what will verify.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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hope i didn't step on toes but it frost my a$$ when people criticize those of you that go out of your way to make this a great board. same goes for you jason.
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Alex.K
Unregistered
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yep, it looks like the eye is peeking out again from under the clouds.
I predict little change in strength before landfall.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Clark, That was an excellent observation and analysis of what caused the weakening. It makes total sense to me. Is this upper low what was causing the SW shear and providing all the dry air being entrained into ? Looking at the satellite I dont see and upper low around anymore so Im assuming its been destroyed? I guess alittle strengthening could occur then if this is the case but its not occurring at the moment as the pressure is now 960mb. Oh well, its another wait and see day.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Unfortunately, I disagree on the explosion...The visible shows a loss of convective activity near the center and that is confirmed by the IR which shows warming of the tops...I think I see dry air wrapping all the way around into the center
I don't think this looks healthy at all.
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doug
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Skeeto-
I have to say your images are absolutely amazing! I can hardly wait until the new ones come up.
That said, the latest one seems harder for me to understand. Is it because it is size adjusted, more 'close-up' on the state?
Keep them coming - from here in Orlando they offer me a real look at what's coming.
TinaLee
Important
The latest image was adjusted to show the true scale of the hurricane (red line) and tropical storm force (blue line) wind fields at the time of the last advisory.
Make no mistake folks, this thing is huge, regardless of intensity at landfall, if you live in the USA and are south of Georgia and east of Texas, you will get up close and personal with soon.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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With regards to this model some have mentioned a newstation in orlando area is using is probably just a copy of the ETA model. Because if you look at latest 12Z ETA it has storm staying just offshore and moving north. This looks to do to ETA weakening the ridge in upper levels, but looking at latest analysis 17z it looks as though ETA is weakening rdge too much.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just got thru reading everyone's posts. Great stuff as always. mentioned she's currently weakening and DEFINITELY has taken an almost due west path (showed it on the visual with the little white line).
Keep up the great stuff...now that I'm caught up I'll see what I can do about finding stuff you guys request.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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pressure at 2pm up to 962 mb
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