eligrace
Unregistered
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Do you think this just a jog west or a trend?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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If you have access to Digital TV broadcasts [usually considered to be done via a High Definition reciever], the following info is showing on these sub-channels. WFTV 9-2 in Orlando is showing a continuous one hour time lapse loop of the long range radar in Miami. WFLA 8-3 out of Tampa changes between showing forecast models, Miami long range radar with lighrning tracking. WKMG 6-2 in Orlando has NOAA Weather radio for audio with various displays from their system, including radar and sattelite loops.
Edited by Rasvar (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:35 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm gonna go a little wild here and guess that Channel 6 is an NBC affiliate? Channel 8 here in Tampa is an NBC affiliate and is using the model, too, and it shows the storm staying offshore.
My thinking is this: if it isn't being used by the , I'm not going to use it. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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At this point (I also posted this last night), please do not ask me to make any meterological decisions...I'm not a met and I don't want anything I say to result in a decision that could affect the life and limb of anyone out there. Sorry. Maybe Rabbit or JK or Clark or Scottsvb or ED can field this one.
I'll report what I see or hear, but I will let you decide...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:32 PM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Frances tracked much more WNW from 11am to 2pm than she had in over 24 hrs. It was a movement of .2 degrees north and .5 degrees west. Obviously it was only in a 3hr timespan, and by 5 o'clock we'll be able to tell if that might be a trend more westward starting. However, yesterday she tracked much closer to NW than she ever had, and any movement that's more west than north needs to be monitored very closely. On the infrared maps it looks like an eye is still somewhat visible to the SE of Great Abacao, but it sort of "disappears" as the storm tracks WNW, and the convection sort of dies out. This is more of a snapshot of current conditions though and shouldn't be marked as a trend.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:33 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I was going to post with some thoughts, but Clark did such a good job that I can find nothing to add that is either pertainent or relevant at this time (gratitous Sportscenter reference).
I do concur with Clark's analysis (I miss my GEMPAK!!!!)...sharp work my friend.
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Jason Kelley
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Thank you for that understandable explanation. All the helpful people here are outstanding in their own way - it helps to get the 'whys' behind the 'when and where'. Our local mets here are mostly echoing - but fox was doin the 'up the east coast of FL with the eye just offshore' as of 9pm last night. Uising some model they like to use here on severe weather.
<minirant>The guy from Good Day Live actually said today that could intensify to a Cat IV or V by landfall... I wish someone would tell him that his guesses are not helping people who get all the news from tv! </minirant>
Quote:
Essentially, had lunch yesterday afternoon, ending up with an upset stomach. Now that it's had time to digest the low, it is back to strengthening over the open waters near the Bahamas.
OK ... that just got my funnybone... ty!
'shana in Austin
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"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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The pressure is going up slightly...because it is encountering portions of the Babamas...and is busy wiping out trees and huts.......it will intensify and hammer the southern Florida coast soon enough
Rick...KNOCK IT OFF! Even if you happen to be right, choose better terms to describe possible future events.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:38 PM)
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alizzabeth
Unregistered
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Channel 9 mentioned a potential turn toward Daytona....
:?:
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I thought the example of eating lunch yesterday and having an upset stomach was just priceless....
BUT, I'm still concerned about Mon & Tue.....Here in Atlanta they are calling for heavy rain and winds for about 48-60 hours. Jason or Clark, anything in the futurecast to dispel that forecast, or should I be looking for an old man with a whit beard leading animals down Peachtree St?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Ok, just saw WKMG's deal. I don't think they are wrong in giving the scenario. What they displayed is a worst case situation, IMHO. I thought the on air met made it very clear that it was just another possibility from the official. Not saying it was going to happen. If public saftey is the issue, then it fair to give such information just to keep folks further north from getting complacent.
Personally, I do see the validity in what they are saying and there are other models that go along with it. The comments they made seem proper.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am not really getting this northerly jog/motion thing...SHORT TERM we are seeing mewhat of a west wobble...but I am got getting what everybody is pointing to for some sort of radical north motion. Of course no one at has explained it in the Disco's...I am assuming that modelling is just being blindly followed again.
Clark, still there? Do you see anythig in the analysis fields that leads to a significant northward motion?
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Jason Kelley
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RedFred9
Unregistered
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Did predict the sudden gig that brought on shore at Punta Gorda or are they just blowing smoke up their own A$$e$ ? here in Tampa it seems they cant go 20 seconds without running their little commercial stating they were first. I don't remember particularly them being the leader.....
I am new to all this, still a hurricane virgin so to speak, but I can't help noticing that all predictors, professional and amateur tend to bend the potential track towards their own location. It was especially noticeable this morning on the radio when the DJ went to weather men in the different cities that the show is syndicated. Those in Miami had the storm heading due W, Tampa followed the , straight through the middle of their market, and Jacksonville had it hugging the coast and coming ashore just south of them, even Atlanta had the storm dumping rain all over them. I don't mean this as criticism, its just an observation, but it seems there is some kind of perverse need to bring the storm closer to ones location, I thought perhaps that it might be just the media trying to sensationalize, but the same kind of thing happens here too.
Great site BTW, I am waiting for my ID to be processed 
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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NORTH  Why does this loop make it appear to be going west-southwest, if anything ? It's hard to tell since no eye is visable; is it just reformation or is this really indicative of a total change in direction ?? 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I was on the design team at Baron Services prior to my job here, and I am intimately familiar with and how it works...
Yes, (or more accurately the custom version of the that is displayed on ) it anticipate the more rightward motion of about 24 hrs prior to landfall. I was running the model and I actually have video of me, the night before, calling for a Ft Myers landfall based on this. While the stations that had did have this information, not all of them used it..or didn't use it well.
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Jason Kelley
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I may be wrong on this and Jason may be able to pipe in on this from his standpoint if he wants or has time. I think that the local stations will highlight the possible dangers to their viewing area. Therefore, information that highlights a possible danger to the area, that seems to be a reasonable option, will also be highlighted. I think that it is normal and probably the correct thing to do. I would sure hope that the person I am watching is giving me as much information as possible about what could happen. I am a firm belieiver in giving out the worst case situation. If you prepare for the worst case, most times you will be ready.
Back to , this slow speed opens up so many possibilities. Just really have to keep an eye on her. Use the extra time to get ready. I think I will go cut my lawn now before it becomes a swamp.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I believe is going to go due west or even slightly south of due west. I see high pressure to the SW and to the NE of the storm. is looking for that weakness across Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties to avoid the 2 highs. Lowest pressures in that region all the way across the state to Naples. The old Hebert's box thing may just come true.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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ThirdRay
Unregistered
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I watched Channell 8 NBC exclusively for Charlie and they only mentioned the VIPER trac AFTER the turn just like everyone else. Steve Jerky and that commericial are why I will be watching this board and ABC from now on. If they predicted Charlie 3 days in advance like they say, why did they tell eveyone watching to evacuate to the area where it HIT ???? It is clear they BLEW it (no Pun intended) and just blatently lie about it afterwards. I do not know if VIPER is any good or not, but I certainly know WFLA is TERRIBLE.
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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I agree. Even in the absence of a discernible eye, the latest frames idicate a reforming in a westerly, even WSW direction.
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crm9501
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Boca Raton
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I am in Boca Raton and the wind speed is picking up and the sky looks very dark. We have lost and gained power twice so far. They told us to expect these bands thoughout the day. Anyone know or have an idea of where it might make landfall and when? I have not had time to read all the posts as of yet. I'm very new to this so any technical talk will blow right over my head (LOL)! Keep safe everyone!
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