Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
which is why I wonder if there is a natural time table to these things....which is to say...can they really sustain themselves as strong 4-5's very long. Wonder about that...
Nature abhors a vacuum....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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A stationary storm is something I do not want to see. Many differnt things can happen while stopped. Including a bit of house cleaning. While it is hard for a storm in condition to spin back up, it is not impossible. At this point, I just want her to move and get on with it. The wait is worse then the actual event.
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spook
Unregistered
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I would say hooray if it contiues to weaken,i realize alot of time and money spent,but nothing compared to the costs of a cat.4 or 5.reminds me of lily,a cat 4 storm then died to cat2,in hours,but still alot of headaches for some people.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I am at the end my rope here hanging and i cant touch the ground. Just get it the hell over with im not allowed out, i cant go and surf. Im locked up in my marina right now drinking a beer and they say its stalled.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Good deal Phil, Im not dissapointed at all she's weakening, if my post came off sounding like that I didnt know it. But I know how ya feel, We wanna see the worst mother nature can bring, but when the worst comes our way, its not very fascinating anymore and gets personal.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey Robert,
I was wondering about the surf...TWC said all those who went out today got frustrated (maybe you can explain, undertoe, rip currents?) Went to Jones Beach (LI beach) today and while it was very rough, there didn't seem to be any swells or breakers...just little crests breaking right on shore. And there were those damn "clear" jellyfish which I abhor...how come this bad girl isn't creating good surf conditions (and I am being TOTALLY serious).
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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southflahappygal
Unregistered
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this killing time is killing me!!!!!
at least you'll die happy... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:49 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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still think this will continue to weaken--as it stalls, it is upwelling cooler waters, and still fighting shear and dry air
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Glad to see it weakening! Still not 100% it won't gather just a little more strength before coming in, but hopefully not. Here on Merritt Island the wind slowly picked up today and is currently gusting in the low to mid 30's. The forecast from the NWS office says gusts to 120 here tomorrow night - yikes! Glad to have hurricane shutters!
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Joe B. just finished talking on FOX. He gave two possible paths. One is a slow drift NW until it gets over the Grand Bahamas, inland to Cape Canaveral and a abrupt west track through Florida and then tracking NW again. The other is to hug the coast up to Jacksonville north. The stall now attributed to the high to the NE of waiting to be built in to force a move to the west.
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Go Boilermakers
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I just noticed that is looking and moving similar to Isabel last year in the same location and time of year, and they are both "I" names...
they don't have a lot in common. current motion or solution. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM)
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southflahappygal
Unregistered
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Quote:
still think this will continue to weaken--as it stalls, it is upwelling cooler waters, and still fighting shear and dry air
Thats a welcome thought. I am only about 40 miles south of west palm beach. Have felt behind the eightball for days.
Thanks for all your posts everybody. They have helped educate me and passed some time
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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In South Florida the beaches are all locked down. The police are not allowing anyone out there. All the barrier island bridges are blocked. There are also curfews in effect in the mandatory evacuation zones.
Bill
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gailmm
Unregistered
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I couldn't agree more. As someone who feels like there's a bullseye on the roof of my house (Satellite Beach, barrier island, due east of Melbourne) I hope the freakin thing goes out in the ocean someplace and dies. And the evacs are a small price to pay considering what could have happened. Even if this thing landfalls a cat 1, there's no doubt in my mind that the evacs will have saved a life or two.
I want to thank all of you experts here. I am a lay person and have gotton great comfort from visiting here the last few days. The not knowing is so hard. This has really ignited my interest in weather, which was lurking in the background always, and I'll probably become a regular visitor in the future.
I know this isn't over and there could be more bad news coming, but for now its nice to savor the hope that we might actually get out of this thing with some missing shingles and broken tree limbs.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Seriously...where are all of the mets (or near mets) on this board? Ed is probably trying to secure his premises & Jason must be on air...
Anyone (Rabbit, Scottsbv) want to take a shot at this? I'm being PMed by a bunch of users who want to know the threat and I'm afraid I can't respond (even if I have a met head's up) because they might take what I say as gospel...I have no idea (well, I have an idea, but not one I would advise people to evacuate on)..
So..please...anyone who can guide the boards...please do so!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Bryan Norcross was just speaking with Max Mayfield. Max said last night winds on San Salvador Island were recorded at 152 mph when the anemometer blew away. WOW!!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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centauratlas
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
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The weakening seems to be due to the dry air west and north-west of the storm which is being sucked in on the west side, which is why S. Fl has been seeing fewer rain bands than one might expect. Once that clears out a little more - ~ < 24 hours - if the storm is still over water it will have the potential to intensify.
The things I don't like about the official forecast tracks:
1. People tend to put to much faith in them, and then get hammered. This is not the 's fault, but a poor explanation by people presenting them.
2. The models could be split (as earlier today) with, for example, a group showing north and a group showing west. The official track (usually) averages those and presents a NW track. To me that is non-sensical: if no models project it is going in that direction, why average it to that? It is like saying "there are either 3 people in the room or 1 person in the room" and then projecting that there are 2 people in the room. Obviously all the modelling is full of error, but don't compound the error. One solution would be to keep the probablity graphics, but remove the center track, or perhaps don't make it a line of points track, but a wide path.
3. People also don't seem to appreciate the uncertainties, particularly with stalled or slow moving storms. For example, if stalls out there for 24 horus, the assumptions showing it moving as projected today will have changed. So, people preparing based on that may be disappointed.
Edited by centauratlas (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:13 PM)
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Ashley.m
Unregistered
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This is a really scary thing for most people and it is for me to. My cousins live in Florida.. My mother just got off the telephone with them.. at that time my cousin told my mom that there windows are boarded up and his children had cabin fever already.. Im scared for all of them.. I send my love out to all the family's that have the same issue as mine do.. Good luck.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That goes to show that even reconisance from an airplane can not predict what the land and surrounding water will do to wind. That is why the experts say to take the precautions as "IF" because Tornados can blow one house away and leave the one next to it standing. Wind speeds can be different everywhere and even next door to you. The information cited on air is a general trend not what every one is experiencing all at once.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Phil, got a lot of those on the board yesterday. Best advice to them is listen to their local TV stations and the . Any evacuation now would be foolhardy, but if they do, evac local or don't evac. They told us here in Dade County, don't move after 7:00 PM, but that is who these folks should be listening to, not you or any of us.
Bill
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