andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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jason,
what was the storm surge here during Opal? (if you get a few) or a place i could find that info
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Today we checked for plywood at Home Depot, Lowes, Crowder, and Island Hardware. No plywood anywhere. All expecting shipments but none to be had as of this afternoon.
Tension in my household is getting unbearable. I want to head out for Tennessee. I'm so very tired of these 'Canes. My husband is stomping around grumbling about all the work in battening down and running. He wants to stay.
For we compromised. We ran to Arcadia and we all know the rest of that story. I'm still eating crow for taking us into the eye.
Confused now. Do I stand my ground and insist on TN and then eat crow if it's sunny here as it was during or do I give in and watch advance?
We are on Palma Sola Bay, Evac level B, at 3ft above msl. but we have concrete stucco two story house. I just don't know what to do. But was so terrifying I can't possibly imagine doing another Cat 4.
Confused Bev
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Level B? I say you have to go if the order is given. Best bet is just to try Orlando and hope it doesn not pull a .
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just heard on the Braves broadcast that the Miami(Fla) Marlins may have to move their 5-game series with the Montreal Expos from Pro Player Stadium to US Cellular Field in Chicago(Home of the White Sox).....
Also the state of Florida has suspended tolls again on the entire Fla Turnpike, I-75 Alligator Alley and the Sawgrass Expressway...
Also, looking at the forcast track of , It seems that air travel is going to be really affected cause Atlanta will possibly be in the right front quadrant...But again, it may not...
God Speed everyone in 's path
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Thu Sep 09 2004 10:06 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Bev -- I would be making background preparations now, as it sounds like you are doing, and be prepared to move later in the week. Most projected paths, including the official track, keep you on the eastern side of the storm, which means you all are bound to see something. Whether that is a direct landfall, a brushing blow, or a glance from afar to the west remains to be seen.
Keep prudent in following the storm, but don't make any rushed decisions. It is better with *all* storms to play it safe rather than sorry, meaning even if it is a sunny day in your area, you didn't take the risk of a cat 2-4 hurricane making landfall with you stuck in the midst of it. A lot in life is about minimizing risks: sometimes you have to take a risk to get ahead, but this is certainly not one of those times.
We'll know more later in the weekend about where it is going, but Tennessee should be an option you strongly consider, even if the storm ends up hitting extreme S. Florida or into the western panhandle, far away from your area. Better safe than sorry, I say, and the errors in the best models (which have been the Superensemble and the official track, both at ~150mi at 5 days with ) are still substantial enough to cause the storm to veer from a projected course to, say, Apalachicola to a course towards Mobile or towards Tampa Bay.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Bev- how far away are you from Orlando? My husband, a team of guys, my brother in law, and his team of guys, and a few other district managers from his company are there restocking the lumber, batteries, flashlights, etc. I know my husbands team is headed to Vero tomarrow and I think my brother in law's team is headed to Tampa. So, if you can't find supplies today or tomarrow, they should be readily available by the day after that. (in Lowes at least)
As far as evacuating, all of us women know a thing or two about our intuition. Trust your gut! If your gut is telling you to go, GO! If your gut is telling to stay, well, i'ld probably still go!
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Kelly
Edited by kelcot (Thu Sep 09 2004 09:59 PM)
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Local meteorologist gave a tease that the little system off the coast of Tampa could mean that pushes into Central Florida. Given the NE turns all the models have put in at the end of their tracks, how could this cause a track change? Clark? Jason? Scottsvb?
You might want to limit that to Clark & Jason
And I was hoping you might jump in with your thoughts. 
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
Edited by StormHound (Thu Sep 09 2004 10:20 PM)
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rule
Unregistered
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I'm located in Ocala, digging out from .
I'm concerned about the same thing. I can just see the track going into the panhandle and pulling a . Right over us again.
Ugh!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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StormHound -- what he is referring to is the old boundary left behind partially in ' wake. On water vapor imagery, there is a hint that a new low is trying to form on this boundary west of Tampa. However, at this point, it is a very weak feature.
What tends to happen with these cases is that the low forms, ejects towards the notheast along the boundary, and the whole boundary lifts a bit further north and back westward. If anything in the short term, this low forming will keep on a slightly more westward path. I doubt it will be enough to turn into Central Florida, but stranger things have happened.
By the way, for those wanting to try to pick out the formation of new lows on water vapor imagery (meaning these systems are in the mid to upper atmosphere), look along boundaries for an "S" shape. Just to the left of that "S" will be where you find the new low. Thus, in that boundary for example, you see a slight "S" curve off of the Florida coast. Just behind this, a low is forming.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
StormHound -- what he is referring to is the old boundary left behind partially in ' wake. On water vapor imagery, there is a hint that a new low is trying to form on this boundary west of Tampa. However, at this point, it is a very weak feature.
What tends to happen with these cases is that the low forms, ejects towards the notheast along the boundary, and the whole boundary lifts a bit further north and back westward. If anything in the short term, this low forming will keep on a slightly more westward path. I doubt it will be enough to turn into Central Florida, but stranger things have happened.
By the way, for those wanting to try to pick out the formation of new lows on water vapor imagery (meaning these systems are in the mid to upper atmosphere), look along boundaries for an "S" shape. Just to the left of that "S" will be where you find the new low. Thus, in that boundary for example, you see a slight "S" curve off of the Florida coast. Just behind this, a low is forming.
Thanks, Clark. I always learn something new here.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My gut said TPC was going to go Left with the forecast. Looks like they went slightly right. Good thing there is not a Las Vegas line on these things, I would have been broke a long long time ago trying to predict the prediction.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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ok storm if you dont want my opinion then dont mention me, ty.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Yes, they went right this time. Landfall on the west coast of Florida north of Tampa. I think we will see some back and forth for the next day or so.
Bill
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
I live about a mile from the st. johns river and it is starting to envelop homes on the river. Anyone know what sort of impact 3" of rain is going to have on the overall cresting forecast released earlier this week?
From Orlandoweather.com:
<http://b.www.orlandoweather.com/hurricanes/3716873/detail.html>
"But even the lower-than-expected rainfall from was enough to flood low-lying areas along the St. Johns, which cuts between Seminole and Volusia, as well as areas of Osceola County such as Buenaventura Lakes and Poinciana, where water backed up in neighborhoods because it had nowhere to go.
Located on the south shore of Lake Monroe, which is part of the St. Johns River, Sanford is expected to see waters near the top of its sea wall by late Saturday, Decker said.
Flood stage is 5 feet 8 inches, and the waters are expected to rise to 6 feet 3 inches, he said. The sea wall is 7 feet, and the city has set aside a supply of sandbags.
Flooding problems would be worse if the district wasn't holding water upstream in two large reservoirs in Indian River County. The reservoirs cover 8,000 acres and hold millions of gallons of water.
For now, only one of the reservoirs is draining into the St. Johns -- and only at a minimum rate of about 5,000 gallons per second.
But the more it rains, the less likely the district can hold water in both reservoirs, Elledge said. Doing so could flood Indian River County.
"At some point, we're going to have to open that up," Elledge said. "Right now, we're able to hold that water. If we get another storm in the next week, then all bets are off.""
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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DOES IT LOOK LIKE S.E. FLA IS CLEAR? LET ME KNOW PLEASE--
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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scottsvb1, I don't think that was StormHound, I think one of the mods made that comment, and I don't understand it. Frankly I think the comments in other messages by the mods (except when warning people to stay on topic) are distracting and unnecessary, if they want to comment, they should leave their own messages, not modify other's messages.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Thu Sep 09 2004 10:53 PM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Miami is not in the clear,,,,, but no one is saying it will hit you also,,, its a wait and see thing till it gets past 82w and 25N.
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 13
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I watch the fish and animals around me , not very much a science but looks like we are in for hard times , just what i see from the wild life around me tells me to prepare. I'm a fishing guide /freashwater. Ole timers called these times "angry skies" you can see it in cloud formations being different than usual , hope this is not off topic , new here.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Frankly I think the comments in other messages by the mods (except when warning people to stay on topic) are distracting and unnecessary, if they want to comment, they should leave their own messages, not modify other's messages.
Going to see if I can reduce this. I'm more fond of comments either privately or as another post. I personally never edit messages unless there is a very good reason to (Ie breaks the rules or fouls up the table layouts)
Scott's posts are welcome, as is anyone's really. He explains it fairly well. It's important to realize that registered users are able to go back and edit their own messages as well.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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you could be right,, i saw edited by stormhound, got kinda affend. Jason and clark are great and we should all listen to theyre opinions. I just dont think i should of been mentioned by the leave it to them. I shouldnt been mentioned then at all.
Anyways only 1s that do moderate these are phil, mike, Ed, and hank.
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