rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Oh Crud....
I think I'll make tomorrow "Moving Day".... either I'll hunker down or make plans to head out of here... (Ocala)
I've lived in Central Florida for 25 years... Never needed to pay heed to hurricane tracks until this season.. Wow!!!
Hope there is Westward track continued when I wake up!
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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reason shift to right the ridge weakens and trof comes south .and he finds that weakness into prob. sw fla. and keys will get more than a glancing blow. western cuba, is not that mountanis, its eastern cuba that is.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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why can't anyone talk about what the model is forecasting??
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juniorgirl
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
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Hi everyone, first time posting but have been "lurking" for a while. Love the site. My question is what if any concerns should we have for the coast of South Carolina with this hurricane; specifically the Charleston area.
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belleami
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Now, that makes me curious. I saw on the Nat'l news tonight interviewing a 73-yr old woman who says she is "moving back to massacheusetts" - how many of us here have been in Florida all our lives? I have, for 52 years.... Can I do a poll? - Thanks, Susie PS - This is only 'cause I am curious...!
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hang on!
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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
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I lived in Jacksonville back in 1976-77 while in the Navy, moved back home to Ohio and just moved here to Tarpon Springs permanently in mid July. What a ride so far!!!
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You look at the full basin view of the Atl. on WV and that is is one menacing ULL at 30'N and 50'W.The ULL is not moving much now but is already affecting the signature of to the NE.The ridge to the N seems to be pushing ever so slightly into the Bahamas SW.Then you look at the GOM and thier seems to be seperation of the air mass in the center of the GOM.The ULL seems to be at the time being causing some of the push on the ridge to 's NNW.I am probably wrong but that little push could it temporarily make move in a more W track later? I would not think for long but maybe enough to miss Jamacia.
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mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I'm glad that you commented on the lives that will be effected and I pray that the storm spares as many as possible.
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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While I have only lived in Florida about 15 years, I first moved to Florida 45 years ago and moved back 30 years ago. This last move back (final?) was in '96 - just after Erin.
I never took evasive actions in the past, but have now left the barrier island twice, both times for the 6th named storms of the season.
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mud1967
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Clark, I live in Tally too!! Do you think that it will be bad for us here? What is your gut telling you about the big bend?
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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Quotes:
I like the spaghetti model site, but it doesn't have a legend........ .... are there any good 'free' sites that show updated model runs with a legend?
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I interested in getting this information too. Anywhere we can look?
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Sadie, you can find most of what you are looking for right on this site. Click the storm links or go to the main page article.
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After going blind trying to find this info in 'Storm Links' (no offense Phil), many thanks to 'Nick in St.Pete' for posting the SWFMD link. It's exactly what Terra and I were looking for.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Have any of you seen Joe Bastardi's track at Accuweather?
His track is a lot further to the West and that scares me up here. It's practically over Pensacola from what I heard.
Joe B. is often right too. 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Because it is a proprietary model that the government pays money to for its development and continual enhancement. As such, there is a special agreement to only disseminate the products to the and communities. I believe there may be contracts with others to obtain the information as well...and this is not just limited to the hurricane model, it also extends to the global model version as well.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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mud1967 -- it's going to be one to watch over the weekend for the Big Bend, that much is certain. Climatologically, a strong hurricane has not made landfall in this region since the early 1800s at the most recent, but that's not to say it can't -- or won't -- happen. ' path wasn't exactly the most climatological path either...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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After the flips and flops and the left/right/lefts of the last two storms, I decided I was going to put a binder together with all the information that's out there i.e., model maps, tracks, discussions, etc. for a quick and easy reference guide. Does this make me a total storm geek? Of course.  Do I care? Absolutely not.  It's a lot easier to look up information in a binder than to go back and try to find info from 2 days ago on the computer.
I was not surprised to see the track shift back to the east because Stacey Stewart wrote this in his 5AM Discussion this morning, in which he talks about how the main difference in the models is how they handle the development and future track of a mid- to upper level-low currently near 34N 48W:
Quote:
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST AT 00Z WAS . THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH THE MODEL...ON BRINGING ACROSS WEST-DENTRAL CUBA AND THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST RUN NOW TAKES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS.. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120 HR.
With the exception of the 2pm Accuweather projected path, the track has not made any dramatic shifts to the left OR the right since 5pm Wednesday night.
I'm not a met and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but based on several things I just can't see a track that doesn't having it make landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida or just brushing it and moving up towards the Big Bend area. I can see either possibility happening, depending upon when/where/if makes a NW/N/NE turn, but I just don't see it as an AL/MS/LA storm.
Of course, this is just my unedumacated opinion, but I'm willing to stick my head out there and say, "Yes, this is a FLORIDA storm, more than likely following a polar path (south to north) and someone between the Big Bend and the Keys is going to get brushed or a direct hit and to go a little further, I'll say somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and Cedar Key." If I'm wrong I'm wrong, if I'm right, I'll slap myself silly. 
All of this of course, means that will take a sharp left turn and head towards Mexico for some tacos.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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ok just wondering because from what i hear it is pretty good at predicting tracks.. but nobody seems to say this is what it is predicting. btw class of 81 from and had a guy lived on our dorm floor that was a met major.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It is proprietary, and is only available for pay. I am assuming that anyone that has access to it has to sign a legally binding non disclosure agreement. Typically something this valuable is not left to the honor system.
Bill
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I read some it this evening I got the impression the jury is still out.He was thinking about the central Gulf or the model impacting the Carolina's later.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Andy, to further expound on the Superensemble, there is really nothing to discuss about it, cause there is really only one person on here who can see it, and him discussing out loud with himself would be rather weird...lol...but seriously, that data is held very close to the vest....I don't have access to it, and most of the field offices can't even see it, if I am not mistaken (with the possible exception of NWS TLH, and of course )
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Jason Kelley
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Have you all looked at the Canadian model ? It was extremely accurate on the past few Hurricanes. It has going further West than any of the models. It doesn't "weaken" the ridge like the other models. It expects it to stay strong and force it towards the Pensacola to Panama City area.
It also agrees with Joe B. at Accuweather.
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