Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Contrary to conventional wisdom, Edouard is not moving toward the northwest - its actually drifting to the east southeast and has been for most of the night. It is interesting to note what the tropical models do with this storm ( I don't put much faith with the global model projections on this system - Edouard is a small storm and global models usually do not initialize well on small storms). The moves the system southward a bit, then takes the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula as a hurricane, and in 5 days has Edouard as a major hurricane (almost stationary) south of Mobile. The Bracknell long range tropical forecast moves the system in a medium-sized anticyclonic loop, never intensifies it too much and finishes with the system about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne as a Depression on Friday. The shorter range tropical model suite take the storm through a similar, but smaller anticyclonic loop and some of them place the system, as a minimal hurricane, about 75 miles northeast of Melbourne in 3 days. Quite a variety of solutions, but a common thread is evident, i.e., weak steering currents which lead to an anticyclonic loop and keep the system as a threat to the GA/FL coast for most (if not all) of the week. Right now I tend to favor the Bracknell solution for general track, but not intensity - if the system does indeed pull further to the southeast, as the ridge rebuilds behind the trough, additional intensification seems likely. One more concern - if the loop ends up being a little tighter and therefore closer to the coast, a heavy rain and flooding threat could easily develop for Atlantic coastal areas of central and north Florida later in the week. We may be busy with this storm for quite a few more days.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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|
Edouard is still in a holding pattern. Upper level westerlies have once again pushed convection away from the center while the center itself has stalled. If the ridge building behind the trough starts to 'push' the center southward - and all it would take would be about one degree - the system could intensify quickly without the disruption of the narrow westerly jet. Model runs this evening are again all over the place - or no place at all, i.e., the tropical suite generally holds the system in place. I still think that a southwest drift is an eventual scenario. A small adjustment to the south could quickly turn Edouard into a dangerous storm for the northern half of the Florida east coast (and perhaps even the west coast). Some dry air entrainment might occur, but the westerly jet would probably keep most of the drier air to the north of the system, and the system is not likely to pull any dry air into it until it gets stronger anyway. Not too much has changed in the past 12 hours, except the northerly loop in the next 24 hours is not likely.
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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figured i'd post here just to say, agree with your ideas ed. think edouard's lease on life is tied to whether it can drop out of the jet its in, get under the narrow e-w ridge across peninsular florida. personally think chance edouard will get sheared/subsidized to death is around 40%. safe to say it will be a memorable storm if it can move southward into the zone.
ed, youve only got two named storms left, and not even at the climo midpoint of the season. okay, three with your margin of error. there seems to be a serious case of the sissies with what we've had so far this year, so maybe your hurricane/major numbers wont be far from verification. funny thing is supposedly gray knocked another storm off his season forecast.. at least youre going down with good company.. or going to victory with them.
HF 0441z03september
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I figure that it might last that long - Edouard is definately not 'Fast Eddie'. It has moved generally south less than one degree in about 24 hours. JB's comments on the UKMet are worth noting. The UKMet has had an excellent handle on this system over the past couple of days. Last night the UK was the only model to forecast a decrease in the small jet that was to the north of the storm - and that has happened. When the jet streak relaxed it allowed the dry air behind the trough to wrap into the system - and the storm did crank up a bit this morning, which aided the intrusion of dry air into the system. I think that the dry air was the culprit, not the shear. The system had been holding its own against the shear for quite awhile. Anyway, convection has started to the north of the center again and its not being torn off to the east so I think that the westerlies have relaxed. Precipitable Water values in central and south Florida are still high. Some of the convection in south Florida and the northern Bahamas might get pulled into the system eventually - looks like there is plenty of time for that to happen. The structure of the cyclone is excellent, and were it not for the dry air intrusion, the might have actually verified. The only real unknown at the moment is trying to figure out exactly what mechanism will move it anywhere in the next day or two. Since the system is stationary, I'll assume that the 'push' from the north has reached its limit - which makes the UK solution look pretty good - maybe a little further south and then off to the northeast. I still think that Edouard has a good chance for additional intensification - moist air from the south...and the east can still make it into this well formed - and rather stable - circulation. With dry air entrainment, the system enjoys the stability of a hybrid system. A drift to the southwest - as forecast by just about everyone - allows the system to enjoy the benefits of the Gulf Stream. On the other side of the equation, climatologically, southwest moving systems usually weaken. I'm still not convinced that Edouard will cross the state, but if it did it would survive the journey because of its hybrid nature. On a far more serious note, and in light of the convection building again, a weak slow moving storm could easily equate to flooding should it eventually make landfall, so no matter its strength, it still needs to be monitored closely.
And for HF: The way this season is going, it might be hard pressed to come up with 2 or 3 more storms  (but I still think that it will)
Added at 1020p: Upper ridge in the eastern Gulf seems to be building a little - may nudge the storm southeastward.
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i dont like the ukmet solution.. it doesnt look right. what i should be saying is that it does, just like the last few years, a potentially destructive system should end up being a fish spinner. but here's the thing. pretty solid model support has the ridge in the east surging back, building across to the north of the system. deep layer flow is pretty uniformly shown as east on most of the globals. why ukmet wants to leave some lower heights cut off from the westerlies and use that as an excuse to turn edouard into yet another northeast moving storm sort of baffles me. while the system is weak and the steering currents are weak i can see it loitering around east florida.. but late this week with the ridge back.. think florida gets hit, and then edouard is in the gulf.
very finicky system, but have a feeling this one will make a name for itself.
by the way ed, another SE atlantic system before the week is out. 80% on that.
by the way, like your opinion on why edouard weakened. very shear resistant little storm isnt it? looks like the worst of the subsidence is passed, too.
HF 0444z04september
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Increasing northwest shear finally took its toll on Edouard. Latest from is due out soon and I'd expect the storm to drop to TD status. No winds even close to TS strength anywhere along the coast. Shear has pushed the remaining convection well southeast of the center again. System seems to be centered right on the coast - perhaps just inland. Looks like Edouard maintained its dual center identity for just about its entire lifespan - no doubt as a result of a strongly tilted core as a result of the upper level windshear.
Gulf Invest keeps looking better organized and a TD is certainly possible. Atlantic systems are still not very impressive.
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thats six storms, and still not the climo midpoint of the season. though, still no hurricanes. anti-climatic to be defeated by a flurry of meaningless tropical storms. but think of past times this name list has appeared.. 1984, 1990. its been done before.
HF 0754z07september
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