HMY
Unregistered
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I think you're right. I did extend my personal "cone" From Tampa south, but still see Punta Gorda south. Good thing I'm not a met, I guess.
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Redbird
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My sympathies to you Phil on 911................it was a disaster for our family albiet a smaller scale but still we are in recovery from the event.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Your right LI phil you might as well stay with the same forecast, as opposed to changing it back and forth. The models might be shifting but the landfall is already written in stone. Also by the way, JB's explanation of the Frictional effects actually worked out in this situation, that's why it pulled away from Jamica.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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scottsvb1
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well i posted last night a 3 day forcast track and stated i wasnt sure where it will make landfall and I didnt think it would get past 85w. It still might not but if it does it will be more then 3 days out. I dont like giving out forcasts more then 3 days out but I will guess up to 5days. I have always said Panama City wasnt out of the question,, but so isnt Tampa, now if it goes farther west then 85w at landfall then it will be after my 3 day path and yeah after 3 days you can update your path. Anyone want to make a 2 week forcast? Of course not. changes theyre tracks every 6 hours. I like to adjust mine every 2-3 days. Right now as of friday I had my 3 day forcast near 25N and 83-84w around Monday afternoon. If that is near that spot then I been still right now with that 3 day forcast....anything after that as i posted is speculation. I have this posted on fridays thread,, i tried to get it quoted on this one but IM message board illiterate. I dont know how to do it, so if anyone can,, then plz do so. Ty.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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First off, I too, want to extend my sympathies to all of those who were directly affected by 9/11 (we were all affected in different ways). I also want to salute those who are defending us so we have our freedoms. I am reminded of a quote by Jimmy Carter who said on 9/11 Americans never felt prouder, but now that feeling is gone. On 9/11, I felt a lot of things, but proud was not one. Try anger, fright (worried about the mail in my area from anthrax right after), and being mad as hell.
Back to the subject at hand:
The new is rolling in as I type, out to 162 hours, and talk about a dramatic shift. It now takes it through the Yucatan channel, and has a Fla. panhandle landfall. In then tracks it north towards Ohio, which I have to question, because it should start to be influenced by the westerlies by then. This is a dramatic shift west in my view, but I want to await the model diagnostics to see how this initialized. Last night, it initialized too far south and west. The biases in the past have been to be too far west. The last few storms, it has been too far east. Needless to say, it muddies the waters
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The always seems to blow minor differences into huge changes. It makes troughs and ridges stronger then they normally are, and that's why the forecasts are not so consitent. Other models do this too, but the is, say the more popular one
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Redbird
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I doubt we as Americans realize that 911 tragedies are part and parcel of the third world countries' daily lives. These recent hurricanes have been just as disasterous to families who become displaced.
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LI Phil
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First off...scottsvb...sorry if I offended you. But you have to admit we ALL blow forecasts (I'm the #1 offender by far) but we do admit it when we do...you're not perfect...but you're pretty damn good...I'm gonna be bulking crow sandwiches for the next three days and I'm hungry for more.
Second off...thanks to those who expressed their sympathies for their 9/11 thoughts, especially Redbird...however...you cannot compare an intentional and planned terrorist attack with the misfortune that befalls those ravaged by hurricanes...sure, I feel horrible for the victims and their families...but that's madre natura...not al kaida (sp?).
Let's keep it on , as there are PLENTY of things to discuss there, k? Thanks
Again, scott, didn't mean to bust on ya...
BTW, if you send mike an email at: mike@flhurricane.com, he can recover your password and you can be logged in and send PMs and the like...just a thought.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Looks like is starting to get nasty again. Think it will just miss the Islands ahead of it..and slip through the Yucatan.
Haven't looked at the long term...cause it's a crap shoot past a day or so...anyhoo...
If it gets in the channel...then Florida mainland is spared...and I think we all can hope for that...
the long term thoughts are that the wind shear, troughs, and the like will weaken as it gets close to land. However, nothing like HOT SST's...and unpredictable patterns...to gum that up...
New Orleans as a major storm would be the worst case scenario for all.
Mobile for me would be worst case...
and best case is to stall...then get beat up by the trough, and come in as an aggravating cat 2...
we will see...for now...through the Yucatan...then the fun begins...
wonder what the People who fled the Keys will do next time they are asked to leave?
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KJJBCr
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Hopefully they'll still leave. Right now, even if they don't get the storm some people could be in trouble. The hospitals announced an hour ago that they are closed. They will not even take emergency's. They evacuated all their surgical patients to Alabama yesterday. If you are in the Keys right now you are on your own.
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SoonerShawn
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I'm starting to think that the trough in the gulf now will not effect too much. It will have to wait until the next one that is in the Kansas/Oklahoma area to sweep in and cause the north motion. Just my opinion.
ShawnS
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Strangely enough though, of the dynamical models (excluding combinations of multiple models and the like), the has the least amount of errors at 3-5 days. The only problem is that most of them are location/track and not time errors - i.e. it is saying Jacksonville instead of Cape Canaveral instead of saying Cape Canaveral at 6z day 5 versus Cape Canaveral at 6z day 6. In my view, if there is going to be error, it's better to get the location right than the exact timing - particularly if you are going to be too fast with the storm. It is in this that model track error analyses just based upon miles can be misleading.
Needless to say though, the models have come into better agreement on a track...I just wish what was actually going on out there would match with that! I would've expected a more westward movement a day or two ago based upon what is/what is going to be out there, but the models were mostly east. Now, I'd expect a slight bit more of a turn to the N based upon the weather pattern, but the models are mostly west now.
It just goes to show you that no one from Biloxi east needs to let their guard down with this storm.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>want to make a 2 week forcast?
I put mine out Monday if that counts. I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.
Bastardi mentioned 3 scenarios with this storm. He changed his forecast yesterday and may regret it. Scenario #1 (which was always his take until he changed horses) was that it was coming in somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. If this is the case, he expects a MAJOR hit (big time, not necessarily a quote-unquote major hurricane). Scenario #2 is redux. The storm comes in close enough to the coast of FL and gets pulled in south of Tampa with a storm about the size of with the strength of . It makes its way up to the Carolinas as the worst rain event yet for them. Scenario #3 takes the storm into the Big Bend area (the TPC track from earlier) but not as a major. Apparently almost every storm going in that area landfalls at < 85mph (or at least according to his research).
So we'll see. No one's off the hook, but I think my original 6 day forecast may end up being a tad west while the 's current is probably a tad east. The compromise is Seaside-Blue Mt. Beach-Seagrove, etc. to SW of Perry.
9/11 pisses me off to no end. One day someone's going to make it a priority for those scumbags to be brought to justice
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Anyone notice has basically been parked at SW Jamaica since late last night? It's not that far off shore, either. Boy, are they getting hammered.
Yeah, I figured to weaken more than it has... I do believe the eye is becoming more stable. Outflow is heavy but semetrical, not coming off in chunks like . I think it may be at least in a holding pattern, if not strengthening slowly over the next few hours. Edit: I wanted to add I think speed will pick up with strength returning.
I can't see it making to the Yucatan pass yet. I'll still hold out for a pass West of Grand Cayman and North over the end of Cuba.
Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 05:42 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Looks like an is moving towards completion, as another larger eye is starting to emerge. It is going through a pronounced wobble while this is occurring, but looks to be moving wnw. I would expect a vortex message to be out soon, it will be interesting to see the report. I would expect a slightly higher pressure due to the .
It also appears to be following the latest forecast plots well (Thanks again Frank for the link)
Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 11 2004 05:41 PM)
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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Iowa
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You folks have been through enough! Given the NHS track, will there be anything left of Sanibel/Captiva by the time this thing is over with? We have some relatives who winter down there, and their condo was toast after .
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tazmanian93
Unregistered
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Folks, over the last year I have really begun to look at these more close. Writing from Tampa, anyone think based on the link there is some new/more north movement?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Looks like he's begun another northward jog after his dance with the Jamaican coast...I still will go with a split the uprights call for the Grand Cayman/Little Cayman/Cayman Brac jog. A direct hit on Grand Cayman would devastate their tourism industry and I can't see it going any further west of that island. Rick may be right with this one...he's certainly nailed it so far. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent the N and eventually NNE turn is coming. Wish it could be in time to take it over the big mountains of E Coobah but probably not.
Once in the GOM...possibly as a CAT V? Where then?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tazmanian93
Unregistered
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It is the novice again, anyone have any info on the impact so far for Camaguey Cuba, my wifes hometown? Thanks again for all the info and insight
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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I know, that's weird. It doesn't seem like it's moving as fast as they forecast. I wonder if that means it's getting ready to make that turn around the ridge. Didn't they say it would slow way down before it started turning?
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