rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Still going West.
Anyone have a strength measurment?
Paging Yucatan, your plane is leaving....
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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good idea,just not working out the way it was meant to.
Now that I've had my say, I'm turning my attention back to .
ShawnS
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Good point, Bill.
The Internet has really been an added component to coverage. It's only going to get worse.
While I'm at it, I would LOVE to donate some money to this site, but I've spent myself into a hole getting ready for and . Maybe next month... I really would like to donate something because this site has been (at the least!) a stess outlet for me during all this.
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jamserve
Unregistered
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How about a 5-day but only showing the cone with 3-day forecast points and not the 5-day points. That way the media can't point to a 5-day location and give people the impression they are in the path (or not).
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Yes, still west. For awhile I thought maybe I was looking at it wrong, trying to evaluate general motion in increments that were too small. But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.
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jultime
Unregistered
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Yup, sick of .
The moving truck is supposed to be at my place Monday to load up to move back to Clearwater, FL. That's IF doesn't decide to go visit Tampa Bay. Perhaps by Monday morning we'll have a better idea on where is going. My intuition is that its not going to hit the west coast of Florida (fingers crossed)
And I also agree that the 5 day track is a waste of time.
I plan on getting hurricane ready as soon as I move into my house. At least the neighbors won't laugh at me anymore.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is airborne at this time from Biloxi.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12
Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...
Anyone else with me?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass  Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
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I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I have been watching the water vapor loop most of the day. It looks to me like is no longer squashed like it was on the N and NW, and the moisture around is lifting to the NW. I think is about to start its NW turn. I hope I am wrong for the Caymans' sake.
Bill
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Thread posted-thanks
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.
The last couple of forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.
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KJJBCr
Unregistered
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Do you realize that Charlie was exactly in the same place exactly one month ago. Look at one of the interactive sites where you can see the path of prior storms. I can not believe how similar and Charlie are!
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