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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five
      #25466 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:56 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen


Hurricane Ivan regained category 5 strength this afternoon and its path is taking it toward the Cayman Islands and eventually western Cuba. It's supposed to encounter shear before it nears the US, but it looks like it will remain a major hurricane throughout the period.



After Cuba is what most folks in the US are interested in, and this time the risk for the northeastern gulf is increased and the threat to central Florida decreased. Although the track error that far out still could be large. It would be Tuesday night or Wednesday for landfall on the current schedule and a lot could happen in the gulf.

The forecast that far out is still very uncertain so folks along the gulf will want to watch, especially the eastern half of the Gulf. Watch the trends.




** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

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Event RelatedLinks

Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25472 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

Several new maps:

Street level for:
Grand Cayman
Cuba
Key West
Tallahassee

Full size images available at www.skeetobite.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Canadian Club for Steve? [Re: MikeC]
      #25473 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

Posted this on the last thread, so a repost here:

Mike...you're not allowed to have a life . You can't leave the site for a second.

One good thing about the site going down was that I was able to check out a whole bunch of other stuff, read up on all the models, etc.

Steve, have you seen the canadian? It's the westerly outlier of course, but it also puts you in the bullseye.

The models have all shifted westward, so now it looks as though JK, co-mod Coop & Andy1Tom might need to think about heading to GA.

Accuweather has a strange cone, the easternmost part of it has little old moi as an end target. Let's stay away from that one, shall we?

CAT V and still strengthening? Good lord, Grand Cayman had better have all their planes in the air NOW with residents aboard. Hope the cruise ships bolted town...

Anyhoo...glad the site is back up. I was worried I'd have to watch two russian women smack a little yellow sphere around all night...

Peace, and pray for Grand Cayman!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25474 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:04 PM

Thanks for the new thread mike.
CAT 5 Ivan is going to bottom out at about 890 mb's, nothing seems like it will hinder it's devlopment, except some dry air coming off Cuba's moutains but Ivan's near perfect outflow will take care of that. Those peole in the Caymans Islands and the Western tip of Cuba are in for a rude awakening, as this hurricane might hit as a CAT 5. Luckily though, the keys and the other areas that have already been hit with two major hurricanes seem like they will be spared if that ridge holds out. Lets hope for the best.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Jason234 (Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 PM)


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25476 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:08 PM

Posted on the last thread, reposted here.

On several of the tv stations here they were saying that the forecasts were all based on the assumption that Ivan would beat the trough (jet stream?) currently moving down to the northwestern Gulf. More to the point, they said it was a race with respect to what arrived in the GOM first, the trough or Ivan. If the trough gets here first, the forecast shifts back to the right, if not, it stays where it is. Any thoughts on what is "winning"? I'm a little concerned that Ivan doesn't seem to be in any hurry at the moment. I don't like it when I hear things like it's a race, and steering currents are weak once past Cuba. That usually doesn't bode well for last minute preparations (still remembering Charley's quick turn at the last minute). Don't get me wrong, we have all our supplies, etc, but...would rather not have a last minute panic if it heads our way.

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 07:10 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: tenavilla]
      #25478 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM

The trough, I believe has stopped digging and is now lifting so don't get to worried yet, it is kind of a race though but it depends on what you mean by winning. If you don't want the hurricane to hit, right now you're winning but this game might be taken into overtime, you never know.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: tenavilla]
      #25479 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM

With the western paths shift discussion, what does that bode
for New Orleans? Tough to think about that. The cone is not that far from NO per the 5 PM advisory.


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25480 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM

Ivan looks like it has stalled and is drifting just south of west. I wonder what this is going to do to the future track? I know that it was supposed to slow down, but it looks like it is doing what Frances did off the coast of Florida. At least it has cleared Jamaica enough that they are not getting the worst of it now, but they are still getting pounded.

Bill


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tenavilla
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Reged: Thu
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Keith234]
      #25481 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM

Maybe in my ignorance I phrased it wrong. What they showed was I believe the jet stream shifting south behind a trough of dry air (again terminology may be wrong). You could distinctly see the dry air, and behind it a bunch of stuff moving quickly south, currently over OK and that general area. They said (heard something about it on TWC as well) that when the hurricane got to it, it would "pick it up" and that's what would carry it NE. Question is where it will be when it meets up with Ivan.

With respect to winning, I'm only referring to what gets to the gulf first, not who gets hit. I'm in Tampa, and we for sure don't need it here, there wouldn't be much of a downtown above water.


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belleami
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Second Shift]
      #25482 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:18 PM Attachment (340 downloads)

Quote:

Results for 29.733906N, 84.8701W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 29.7N, 85.0W or about 7.8 miles (12.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 89.2 hours. Be patient for the map to be generated below. (If you get a 'broken' image, try reload/refresh).



*the attached file is a .PNG image*
From stromcaribe "how close is it" link.


The only thing I keep thinking is that if the models show landfall around Apalachicola (Clark was on it last night; he mentioned St. george Island) ~ if it is noted this early, there is a better chance it may change / shift by Wednesday......

Or is that just wishful thinking?
Susie

--------------------
hang on!


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RevUp
Weather Guru


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Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: Second Shift]
      #25483 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:21 PM

At this point, all points of landfall need to be considered including Yucatan and across the entire Gulf coast, especially with Ivan's slow movement. The recent westward shift in the GFS model was huge! Surface pressures are falling pretty good at Cozumel right now. Even the Cayman islands might be spared the worst of Ivan if it continues tracking due west.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




What? Western Gulf? [Re: BillD]
      #25484 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html


I posted this on the last thread but here it is in case someone missed it.

ShawnS


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MParker
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: belleami]
      #25485 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM

I was thinking the same thing! I have a house on Cape San Blas and do not like the idea of the Cape becoming an island.
Hopefully, the margin of error 4 days out will keep us in the clear.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25486 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM

If it continues to slow down, this is not good for the Tampa or the upper part of the Florida Penisula, it could very well affect the current forecast. The slow motion would allow the Trough to have more affect on Ivan as it would near. If this continues the threat for a lanfalling hurricane will once again shift.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25487 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM

This slow down is going to eventually suspend evacuation operations and people are going to start to get complacent. Is this new quirk in the system's path going to resolve otself before Monday? We have a lot of school closings in Polk County for Moncay morning. I don't have kids but do have co-workers who have small children whose day care centers close every time the schools do. Talk about disruption!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25488 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:25 PM

Looks like the tracks corrected left again because the storm was anticipated to have turned more by now.

I am waiting to see if there is anything left of the Caymans tomorrow and how long before another analogy is brought up....
Pretty impressive on the radar, isn't it.

Guess you can take your plywood down at least.


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: belleami]
      #25489 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:31 PM

I'm right next door to St. George island and right now it looks bad for our area. The map at the top of this page shows that the winds at the GA border will be 65KT and it shows that it will be a CAT 4 in the GOM. Does that mean it will be a 4 at land fall too?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: BabyCat]
      #25490 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:33 PM

>>> Guess you can take your plywood down at least.

I don't think ANYONE from the Keys to Shawn S in Houston should be doing anything BUT preparing for a major hurricane strike...even Brownsville & Meh-he-ko need to be prepared... This could be one for the record books, folks, DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Ivan is Moving [Re: BabyCat]
      #25491 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:34 PM

He is still moving. You can't base a stall just on one frame. He appears to be still moving almost due west after a SLIGHT hick-up I guess you could say. I do admit he is not moving very fast but he is moving.

ShawnS


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25492 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM

I was just in PCB last weekend and the water was so warm! I thought 'canes love to strengthen over warm water like that?

--------------------
Kelly


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: mud1967]
      #25493 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM

I believe anything beyond 48 hours is a shot in the dark right now, especially with Ivan's slow movement. This doesn't mean complacency, but just stay alert.
Too bad that so many people made decisions about Monday way back on Friday!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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JackF
Unregistered




Is it me [Re: BabyCat]
      #25494 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM

Looking at the animated model thing, it looks like the models have been going too far right, even since Ivan developed, and even now it's further west than the models from yesterday suggested? What's up with this, could it go into the Yucatan?

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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25495 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM

Thanks Revup and Belleami. What is the Atlantic High doing and does anyone anticipate any change path prediction based on what it is doing (this must be like trying to herd cats!

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25496 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM

Heck, I'm not even sure I wil take my plywood down this month, let alone right now. Too punch drunk as it is from two prior hits. Granted, it is a little depressing living in the "Fortress of Darkness"

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25497 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM

Yes he is moving but much slower than before. The steering currents will continue to get weaker for the next say day in the forecast period then it will increase and he should regain speed once again.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


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Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25498 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:38 PM

I'm just trying to make a plan if I do need to leave. My parents. What the kids and me to go to them but that Pensacola!!

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: Keith234]
      #25499 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:41 PM

Interesting water vapor loop. You can see the edge of Ivan at the bottom, and the jet stream coming in behind the trough to the northwest. Sure looks like the jet stream is moving south faster than Ivan is making any northward progress. I don't think they anticipated him moving so far west.

Water Vapor Loop


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Ronn
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Re: Is it me [Re: JackF]
      #25500 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:55 PM

Quote:

What's up with this, could it go into the Yucatan?




This is doubtful, but it is a possibility. I recall Hurricane Mitch several years ago was consistently forecasted to turn north into the Gulf. It never verified and ended up in Central America because of a stronger-than-forecasted ridge north of the hurricane. Of couse, later Mitch reformed in the BOC and struck SW FL, but as a minimal disorganized TS. Mitch, however, was farther south than Ivan and Ivan is therefore unlikely to follow such a path, but I'm just throwing the possibility out there.

As I mentioned earlier today, we still must wait 48 hours before coming up with a forecast with even the slightest level of confidence. If you notice, the NHC's forecast has consistently pushed landfall further into the future. This cannot continue too much longer before we have to start re-evaluating the entire track.

This is a wait and see situation. There are so many variables that are too difficult to predict this far in advance. I wouldn't place much faith in the computer models and the NHC track at this point. It still looks like an E GOM event, probably in line with the NHC track, but I am getting a feeling that this storm is going to cause us many forecasting headaches before it is all said and done.

As form me, I'm ready to put up my plywood shutters here in Tampa. Nobody should be letting their guard down yet.

God Bless,
Ronn

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Is it me [Re: Ronn]
      #25501 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:56 PM

WHATS YOUR OPINION OF THIS? Recent Recon reports show that Ivan has increased in intensity, cat5 with winds of 165. Wow. This thing is a monster. 913mb Pressure, crazy.

Models have completely shifted west. And I mean like Panhandle style, and all the models. None of them take Ivan over the peninsula anymore. Interesting. I'm not going to buy that quite yet. Overnight Ivan made quite a jog, or leap, to the west. Spared Jamaica and I believe this impacted the models too much, as well as other factors. Since then the hurricane has already tracked slightly north of the forecasted track. I note however, looking at the latest loops that another westward wobble is in the works. The more it goes west, the more time it has over water, the more difficult the forecast will be because of the future NNE movement of the system.

Ivan will still impact the west coast of Florida in my opinion. Once it starts turning north it wont stop. Eventually NNE and NE. In the NHC official forecast they have it recurving to the NE later in the period. It will do this sooner than what they say.



As you can see the trough is in the Midwest and heading east. This will give Ivan the nudge north and eventually NNE. The high has stopped progreessing West and the ULL has not. This wil weaken the ridge further and allow Ivan a more northerly course as well. It's just a matter of time. I know it's going west, thats great for now. But looks are decieving. It will turn. Forecasting a cat5 hurricane is pretty hard. They tend to create their own environments and go where ever they want. That rail on the left side of Charley is coming down from the midwest (trough). The High on right of Charley will weaken. Again, just a matter of time. Once this thing starts turning I believe we'll see the models fly back over to the right. When it turns I believe it will be a pretty sharp turn not a gradual one like the NHC forecasts. I also disagree with the due north movement the NHC forecasts. It would take on hell of a ridge to Ivan's east to keep him on that path. Yes there is a new ridge in the Gulf, it will not build in to a strong one. The models, now that there is a ridge there, forecast it to be there, hence move the hurricane more west. That will not happen. High will weaken.

Intensity? Who cares it's already a cat5! Landfall in the US I will still stick with my mid cat3. Lets hope that shear is there in the Gulf.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: tenavilla]
      #25502 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:01 PM

That low coming in from the pacific looks like it could be a severe weather canidate. I agree with you, they didn't except this much westward movement

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
warm water, landfall [Re: kelcot]
      #25503 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:02 PM

It generally needs to be 80 and above, but to sustain a cat 5, mid to upper 80's is necessary. I don't understand the NHC forecast for weakening on its first inland plot. I thought the rule of thumb in normal conditions was to halve the winds in 24 hours.

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25504 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

I guess stalled wasn't the right description, slowed down a lot is more like it. In the 8PM the NHC is saying it has been "wobbling west". They put the average speed at 9mph and the pressure is down to 912.

This statement is mind boggling:


COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

Bill


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25505 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

No.... I was talking to someone in Miami.
Been through enough storms to know complacency is NOT ok and especially with a monster like this.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25506 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM

I think part of it is what is not seen. I do think they believe that the system will be down around cat 2 once landfall occurs.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25507 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM

oh, I was under the impression it was forecast to be at least cat 3.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25508 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM

>>> I do think they believe that the system will be down around cat 2 once landfall occurs.

Who? The NHC? I can only pray he backs down to a 2, but I got a bad feeling this is at least a 3 on landfall...anywhere. Possibly higher...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25509 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:11 PM

The last couple frames (from 2245 to 2315 UTC) definitely show more of a WNW movement. Of course, it seems to be doing that then going back to W, so we'll see if it continues. I'm still thinking it might not make that next NHC forecast point.

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richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25510 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM

Juse wanted you guys to know that I have a friend in Barbados who owns 3 charter boats and he is getting word from Grenada that it is almost a complete breakdown of law and order. They are trying to get him to bring supplies in on his boats but the word he's getting is pirates are attacking and stealing all the supplies before the boats can get them in. Prisoners are loose. mental patients are loose, and an American student is trying to get him to come over and get her and her friends out of there. He doesn't know what he's going to do yet. It's too bad it comes to this after one of these storms passes thru down there. By the way, this guy is a good friend of mine and a very reliable source. I totally believe what he is saying. Too bad..i feel so sorry for them.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25511 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM

I don't think there is enough modern data on CATV storms for anyone professional or not to say what this storm is going to do. I believe that every one has been following the storm rather than forecasting ahead of it. This is one for the books as well as Charley and Frances. The weather is writing another entire way of looking at things. I do believe that we will have enough time to prepare as best we can given the shortage of supplies in Florida. But, I was looking at the WV loops in the Gulf of mexico and the way the WV is moving from southwest to northeast has me concerned that Ivan could join that wave train in over Cedar Key. I am no expert and I am perfectly willing to be corrected on this.

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FireAng85
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So, what do you think? [Re: Ronn]
      #25512 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:17 PM

I'm curious since things seem to be changing and I am a firefighter, not a meteriologist, are you thinking that with Ivan's slower movement and the trough coming south so rapidly, that we may be looking at a shift east in the projected track? Just curious. Thanks! :?:

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52255225
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Re: Ivan is Moving [Re: Keith234]
      #25513 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM

Its not my forecast. I got it off a private site. He seems to be very logical and knowledgable I wanted to get all the expert opinions here. Thanks!

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LI Phil
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25514 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM

Mary,

I think you are 100% correct. Ivan isn't playing by any known weather "rules". Trofs & Ridges be damned with him. He's going where he wants, when he wants. Is this one for the books...unfortunately...you betcha.

Maybe our friend from mobile will get his wish afterall...

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BillD
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25515 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:19 PM

That far out nobody knows. It could be anything. They *think* it will be lower intensity because there *might* be shear that will weaken it. They don't even know where it is going yet, much less how strong it will be when it gets there. Intensity forecasting is even more difficult than location.

Bill


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SirCane
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25516 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 PM

I'm getting worried here in P'cola. Especially looking at this graphic..

Going to be a wild and nerve racking few days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/AL0904P.GIF


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ShaggyDude
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: SirCane]
      #25517 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM

URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A Ivan OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.

Down to 910 MB --- Ivan's one crazy powerful storm


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LI Phil
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Back up again [Re: SirCane]
      #25518 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM

Mike,

Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25519 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:41 PM

Early to tell, but back on WNW for now. Maybe the W track was a wobble?

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25520 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM

Don't know, but I've been looking at 6 1/2 hrs worth of satellite, and it seems to me that it's almost due west. Check this link out:

Satellite Loop


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BillD
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25521 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM

From the lastest recon vortex message, the pressure is down to 910. Also doing some quick math with the locations from the last three vortex messages, in the last 3.5 hours or so, Ivan has moved .06 N and .25 W.

Bill


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Back up again [Re: LI Phil]
      #25522 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:44 PM

Quote:

Mike,

Thanks for getting us back up so quickly!




I thank you also!

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: SirCane]
      #25523 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM

I haven't plotted out Ivan vs Camille, but the scenario is starting to look familiar.
Ivan is CAT 5, now where Camille was Mid-Gulf before recon found Cat5 winds and pressure. Now comes the sticky part. In the 35 years of Hurricane Forecasting after Camille, there is still a wide margin of error. Hurricane Camille was forecast to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle. The official "Hurricane Warning" for the MS Gulf Coast Did Not go up until Camille was 18 hours from landfall. I will have to look and find when the Hurricane Watch went into effect.
Don't let your guard down. Start now. Pack a few things, fill up the cars, make reservations-you can cancel them.
If Ivan decides to do a last minute turn, you may not have time to do this.


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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25524 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM

Yes, I agree. It's been W for hours. Last frame or two shows the WNW jump.

It's going to have to stay on that track for several hours before I believe it, though.


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rule
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record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25525 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:53 PM

Just what kind of numbers could we see tonight? Is this perhaps Ivan's best chance to make the record books, or are chances better after making it into the GOM?

I noticed this after trying to convert knots to MPH and found myself at the END of the scale.. lol


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SoonerShawn
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Movement [Re: rule]
      #25526 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM

I think it is still just a tad north of due west overall. You have to take in account the little wobble to the SW earlier so now with the WNW it is more less back on track.

ShawnS


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Keith234
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Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25527 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM

I would think it would have a better chance of becoming stronger during the day then during the night. Just a thought.

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robynsmom
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: danielw]
      #25528 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 PM

I have just recently started watching hurricanes very intently. (I live in Tampa Bay Area). Do the mets really have any experience on storms this big? This one looks highly unpredictable. What do the falling mb's mean?

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MrSpock
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Re: record breaker [Re: Keith234]
      #25529 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM

actually, many times tropical systems get convective bursts at night as opposed to regular convection.

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tenavilla
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Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25530 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM

The conversion factor for knots to mph is 1.15. For example, 145 kt x 1.15 = 166.75 mph

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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: robynsmom]
      #25531 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM

Mother of Robyn:

>>> What do the falling mb's mean?

Unfortunately, they mean the storm is getting stronger still.

While we're on this topic a quick poll:
Will Ivan's Pressure fall below 900mb?
You may choose only one
Yes
No


Votes accepted from (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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Keith234
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Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25532 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM

What would cause a convective burst at night?

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BillD
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Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25533 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:03 PM

Probably now, not later. The water under Ivan is very warm now, and shear is forecast once Ivan enters the GOM which will inhibit development after it loses strength over Cuba. However that assumes that Ivan will cross Cuba, if it ends up going through the Yucatan Channel, anything is possible.

Bill


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rule
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Re: Movement [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25534 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM

ShawnS,
I agree. I think it's back on track. (If it holds)

I'm sticking with my West of Grand Cayman prediction. It looks to me that the Path Of Least Resistance is over Western Cuba. So maybe by morning it's WSW / W of Grand Cayman and starting a turn to the North over Western Cuba...


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waatcher
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Re: record breaker [Re: tenavilla]
      #25535 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM

the GFDL and canadian models make me very nervous in new orleans

how accurate have they been so far?

thanks for being such an awesome site


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MrSpock
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Re: record breaker [Re: Keith234]
      #25537 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 PM

a met would better answer this question, but it has something to do with the cooling of the atmosphere at night time. It has been a long time, so I don't remember the best answer to that question, only that that is typical.

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javlin
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25538 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM

The CMC has been the outlier of all the models thus far and the most accurate up to this point.I have been following the model for at least five days now.The CMC to is pushing landfall further W have a hard time getting a perspective on it yet though.The ULL in the Atlantic I believe was suppose to play a bigger role than it has if anything it has been pushing Ivan W by using the ridge.I mentioned the other day Ivan would at best maybe graze Jamacia the eye went S.Yea it was probably the friction theory J.B. has only it seems to occur on slow moving storms on land to the N.I believe that may occur again as Ivan approaches Cuba if the forward speed is slow and lacking a decent steering current.After that I think the troff that is suppose to come may be too weak.the five day forcast here on the MS Gulf Coast has changed to no rain and little tem. change.The ULL in the Atlantic is being slowed down by the ridge in the SE CONUS.So that leaves us with what do we have for steering currents later in week.I hope that HF,Scott,Jason,or Clark might could throw something in to enlighten me.

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tenavilla
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Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25539 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM

I think you're right, I do remember a few storms that just exploded over night. Go to bed with a Cat III, wake up to a Cat V.

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MrSpock
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Re: record breaker [Re: waatcher]
      #25540 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 PM

These 2 models tend to be the farthest west typically. At this point, though, even the GFDL wasn't quite far enough west last night as per Gary Gray's discussion found here:

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/index.html


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RevUp
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Re: record breaker [Re: waatcher]
      #25542 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:12 PM

Beyond 48 hours, ALL the models have been a bust on this one - not a single model fcst Ivan to be near Grand Cayman 3 or 4 days ago (at least none that I saw). Who would have thought we'd be seeing this situation 24-36 hours ago? You can forecast anything you want right now beyond 48 hours, but don't bet on it with a slow moving cylone.

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rule
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: robynsmom]
      #25543 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:14 PM

As far as "why", I'm not qualified to answer that.

However, lower pressure means more "suction" into the storm, making it turn faster. It's like an ice skater moving their arms in close to increase their spin speed. So lower pressure usually translates into higher wind speeds, i.e., faster spin.

Feel free to flog me with a wet tracking chart if you don't think this is correct.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25544 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:16 PM

The reason that storms fire up at night rather than day time has to do with the way hurricanes utilize heat. It gathers heat energy all day and then at night it releases the energy causing the convection to flare up. Heat rises and cold air falls and it is the interaction between the hot and cold air that causes the hurricane to tighten up and to spin. We are talking about the upper levels of the atmosphere where a 90 degree heat coming off water mixes or opposes with temperatures in the atmosphere well below freezing.

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25545 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:17 PM

There's no rain associated with the jet stream pushing down. Not sure about temp change, but temps nationwide have been pretty good, so it may not have too much of a temp change associated with it either.

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LI Phil
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Re: record breaker [Re: RevUp]
      #25546 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:18 PM

Jeff,

I gotta agree witcha wholeheartedly. This one is making predicting Frances look like a picnic.

Ivan's got his own agenda and right now we just gotta play by it.

I think this bad boy plunks below 900mb before all is said and done...if it's in the GOM when that happens, all I can say is PRAY!

He goes where he wants...screw the (aborted) dynagel drop...I'm not saying Camille ATTM, but you gotta start thinking along those lines.

Let's hope Coobah shears him to shreds.

George Town, Grand Cayman...and the area known as Hell (yes, there is a town in the western end of Grand Cayman called Hell), let's hope they got all the turtles secured and the hatches battened...it is not going to be pretty there.

Pray for the Caymans...

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25547 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:21 PM

Could someone please give the LSU servers a good kick? I want my WV loop back!

Still tracking N of W... somewhat still on track.


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rule
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25548 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM

Re: the poll

Wow... I'm surprised. I voted no.

I can't see it doing that. Yeah, it's a BIG storm, but not THAT big.

(prepares crow sandwich)


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javlin
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25549 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM

Doesn't that equate to maybe a weaker troff overall that may have little impact in the long run.Temperture changes cause wind motion does it not.The movement of one mass to another location due to pressure and wind changes.

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captgene
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25550 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:27 PM

spinner of east coast of fl no one seems to see

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


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RevUp
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Re: record breaker [Re: LI Phil]
      #25551 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM

Quote:

Ivan's got his own agenda and right now we just gotta play by it.
I think this bad boy plunks below 900mb before all is said and done...if it's in the GOM when that happens, all I can say is PRAY!



Amen to that! I think the real challenge is just to anticipate how it will affect the Caymans in the short term. Will it be there by noon Sunday? I'm thinking the path of least resistance is more westward than northward for the next 48. That would change the forecast picture entirely!

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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: rule]
      #25552 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM

Rule (kinda like that handle),

I'm not saying (although I did post it) that it will get below 900, only that Ivan has been an enigma (what was that Churchill quote?) wrapped in a riddle...blah.blah.blah. But this one has clearly got the potential for such...It's already the sixth most powerful cane in the Atlantic...and in the environment it's currently in, what's there to stop it from intensifying further? And the eye is bigger than Grand Cayman Island.

Quite frankly, I'm scared...living up here safe and sound on LI...I pray for all you people who may potentially be in the path...

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Storm Cooper
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25553 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:29 PM

javlin, what do you think about the ECMWF at this point? It seems to be a fairly good runner at this point.

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25554 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

I don't know. I do know that jet stream equals stronger steering currents. Plus, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the jet stream is upper level, which means that you won't always notice a difference in your weather. I teach the basic facts about these things in my earth science class, but not often enough to feel 100% confident about it. Actually, now that I think about it, it's not the jet stream that causes the temp/precip changes, but the position of it determines how far south the fronts can come in from Canada. Now I'm going to have to pull out my old textbooks and look that up.

The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the NHC is predicting. They are already basing their forecast on this, I think the problem is in the timing. I really don't believe they anticipated Ivan staying on the drifting westerly track as long as it did/has.

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: Movement [Re: rule]
      #25555 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

Ivan has a definate stair step pattern in his motion. Fifteen minute intervals seem to show the true general motion. Looks like it will be a very close run at Grand Cayman. Possibly a direct hit. I don't think frictional issues will save Grand Cayman like Jamacia was spared. If Ivan does hit Cuba, I actually think the frictional pattern will pull him slightly to the east for a short time and then he will resume his course.


This far out, I am leery of any forecast that is after landfalll in Cuba. The weaker Ivan becomes on his transverse of Cuba will probaby help dictate the what happens afterward. I think a stronger storm will trend further west then a weaker storm. No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. However, I doubt that there will be a swing towards the Keys or SW Florida. I would not take a chance, though.

Edit to change prior to landfall to after landfall. [I had a brain fart while typing]

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)


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RevUp
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: rule]
      #25556 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

I voted no, too ... I think the chances of recon being there when it does drop below 900mb are slim. Would be awesome to see, though ... as long as it's not at the expense of the Cayman islands.

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rule
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25557 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

Thx, LI Phil, "rule" has a somewhat long online history.

Actually, I'm kind of hoping Ivan drops into the 8's. I do think.. (hope!) that it's West of Grand Cayman.. (but at this point.. at this strength.. it may not matter... ) A graze is as good as a hit.

Probably not make much difference for the Cayman. 910mb vs. 895mb... your roof still blows off..

Ugh.


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tenavilla
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: captgene]
      #25558 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

I think that's the upper level low that they have been saying will erode the ridge to allow Ivan to go north.

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BillD
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25559 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

Was just thinking the same thing, recon won't be back out there for another 4 or 5 hours. It could peak and then weaken before they get there.

Bill


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RevUp
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25560 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:41 PM

Quote:

The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the NHC is predicting.


I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25561 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM

I'd like to see the trough that's able to "pick up" Ivan....

Why does the Weather Channel spell it "trof" anyway?


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captgene
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Re: Canadian Club for Steve? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25562 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM

most weather is by nature , either u get it or not, don't over think it or be in harms way

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: RevUp]
      #25563 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM

Quote:

I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.




I don't see anything in the next 48 hrs either, I'm referring to when it makes it to the GOM. The only thing that's going to affect it's track now is when it finds the weakness, or end, of the ridge to the east. Then, it will finally start that NW movement across Cuba and into the Gulf.

Edited to change "or the ridge" to "of the ridge"

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25564 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM

I've always spelled it trof, JB spells it trof and TWC spells it trof. It's not correct, but it's quick...

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Rasvar
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25565 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:46 PM

trof is also the abbreviation used by NWS forecast offices in their Forecast Discussions.

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25566 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:47 PM

I think it's a short-cut spelling, but who knows. From what I gather, they expect it to work the same way it did with Charley. Someone, can't remember who, referred to it as a rail. Once Ivan hits it, it's just follows the outer edge all the way up N or NE. Just like it's been following this ridge all the way west.

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25567 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM

I stand corrected. "trof" it is!

Meanwhile, is Ivan going West again!?


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25568 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM

Last Vortex report, again had double/ concentric eyewalls. Starting another eyewall replacement cycle. I wonder if he will spin up some more or maintain his current parameters.

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RevUp
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25569 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM

Yes, it has to get to the GOM first.

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MrSpock
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25570 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:50 PM

This thing is wobbling like it's got 3 bad legs...I think overall trend is still WNW. After west movement, a couple of frames almost NW, then W, hence the average.

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25571 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:53 PM

Quote:

Meanwhile, is Ivan going West again!?




Sure looks like it's barely north of west.


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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25572 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:09 PM

Man... I'm about to deal Cuba out of the picture entirely. This thing may Thud into Mexico.

Crazy, I know... Just a thought. WV shows nothing but clear sailing W.

The 5am from NHC should be interesting.

The Eye is really getting stong, I see. 800's here we come!


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Frank P
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25573 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:10 PM

Mr Spock, I agree, looks overall wnw on average, not 292.5 true wnw, more like 285 degrees heading... I also voted no to below 900, but if it happens I think it will happen before Coou ba..... such a rare event that doesn't happen to often.... saying that, nothing would surprise me with this bad boy

Geesh, can you imagine the panic along the GOM if this were to get below 900 in the GOM... I don't even want to think about it.... I just don't see that as a real possible scenario as shear is expected in the GOM and it won't have the great environmental conditions it has at the moment... everything has to be perfect for a Cat 5.... right now its perfect..


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LI Phil
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #25574 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:14 PM

Can you guys get me thru to 12?

Local news here has 2 top stories. One is Ivan, can you guess the other.

I've got tears upwelling right now...this is very difficult..need something to take my mind off the damn date!

I remember being on this site on 9/11 when the planes hit...we had about one hour before all of our t-1 lines went down for a week...and the sympathy expressed here was incredible...

sorry...I said I wasn't going to bring it up but now it's real and it's killing me.

God bless the Caymans

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javlin
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #25575 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:16 PM

I really have not looked at it real close seen glimps of it been seeing alot of the basic model all hooking E.There is a guy over at S2K drops off about 11:00 pm CDT the 1/4 pages of the CMC his name is Montrealboy.Alot of people like to bash because of the old format but I think it deals with synoptic patterns better esp. talking troff's from the N.You might right be Tenavilla just seem to me I heard something abiut the steering happened lower probably wrong.I think one could just about stick a fork in NHC predictions on this one.Ivan as Phil said will go as he pleases right now.Got a feeling he makes the YUC gap.In the intermission break that we had went and looked at WV loop again.The ULL seems to of lately started the S track still pushing that ridge on Ivan.Once these two come to the same lat. that eastward swing part of the equation is over.

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SoonerShawn
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SHEAR! [Re: Frank P]
      #25576 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM

I wouldn't put too much faith on the forecast of more shear in the GOM right at the moment. It seems that the predictions that have been made so far about the weather conditions ahead of Ivan have not been all that great.Let's wait for the shear to actually show up first.

ShawnS


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MrSpock
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25577 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM

not to freak you out, but after 9 innings of the Phils/Mets game, both teams had 9 runs on 11 hits.......storm, reachs 910 mbs........Ok, enough, now I'm freaking out my Vulcan mind.

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Renee
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25578 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:21 PM

I understand Phil. Watching some of the media coverage of the memorial of the day left me feeling very sad and appalled all over again.

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Renee
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Re: SHEAR! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25579 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

My husband is biting at the bit to go to Lowes and load up on plywood and supplies. He wants to construct a mini emergency shelter within our garage. I'm telling him we don't need to worry...IF the storm comes to Tally, the shear will be weaken it like Kate was in 1985....that wasn't too bad.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Grand Cayman Weather and Recon [Re: MrSpock]
      #25580 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

01Z observation from Grand Cayman.
Wind 060deg (ENE) at 30kts gusting to 44kts (34.5mph gusting to 50.7mph). Pressure 1003mb.

Recon scheduled to be airborne at 0200Z. 23 minutes ago.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:25 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #25582 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM

I am not seeing any problem with the motion or track right now. It sure looks like it will be dead on for the 6Z position forecast. Stairstepping nicely on track. I do not see missing Cuba at all.

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LI Phil
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Renee]
      #25583 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:29 PM

Renee et. al.

Thanks for the kind words. I'm actually glad my post was the last one on the last "page". Didn't mean to bring everyone down...the past is just that..the past.

Onto Ivan the Horrific..

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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25584 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:30 PM

I don't know about missing Cuba, it may make that NW turn before then. However, I don't see it making the next forecast point. When I hold my straightedge up to the screen and follow the eye, it's barely north of west, that doesn't put it on the right track for the immediate future. When it gets to the end of that ridge, we'll have to see what happens. I do agree with a lot of people though, all bets are off on this one. You kind of give up after awhile. I am very interested to see the 11pm update. Wonder which way they'll shift, since they've been all over the place.

An interesting note, though. With both Frances and Charley they were all over the place and eventually ended up right back where they started.


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Rasvar
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25585 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 PM

11:00 discussion and forecast is out. Do not see anything earth shattering. Slight shift of track west.

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25586 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:32 PM

Off topic, but Jeez, Phil. I'm sorry.

My dog just forced me to play with her for 5 minutes... Playing "Buggy" under the covers of my bed.

Somehow I make a connection between a "pet" (member of the family) and the unquestioning love that they show and your loss at the other end. (If that makes sense.)

Remember what is important to you Phil, but remember to move on as well. Life is Dynamic, just as Ivan is.

Oh great. My dog.. "Katy", want to play some more. Can't deny that!

Back to Ivan..

Please continue your life, Phil. Time will heal somehwhat...


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Rasvar
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25588 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM

It is a stairstep path. Goes about thirty min West and then about 10-15 min NW. Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: tenavilla]
      #25589 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM

...THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT FIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7. AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 PM)


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SoonerShawn
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Rasvar [Re: Rasvar]
      #25590 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:36 PM

I hate to differ with you but the path it is on right now it won't even come close to the eye crossing Cuba. In fact the path it is on right now, it would be hard pressed to miss going over the yucatan. I'm guessing that you are saying that it will change its overall movement by then.

ShawnS


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Westward?? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25591 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 PM

Well NHC says different, but I'm going with 271degrees. Due west on the loop. 1 pixel north, in the last frame, looked more like the eye expanding a little.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: danielw]
      #25592 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM

I am no genius but did that report just say that they are calling this one west and east? I got the part about an eventual turn to the northwest, but then they said they were going to the east of the package? Duh. could some one explain what that said?

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LI Phil
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25593 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM

Thanks Rule and all...lets keep focused on Ivan...btw...my 14 lb Jack Russell knows I'm upset...animals got more damn smarts that we (humans) do that's for damn sure...

This monster commands our attention...

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Rasvar
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Re: Rasvar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25594 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM

Never said that the current course was going to stay. I just think that the 5:00 PM forecast for 6Z is going to be very close to verifying. A lot closer then the 12 hour positions had been. If the 12Z position for the 11:00PM is just as close as I think the 6Z will be, I feel that NHC has a very good grip on the storm for the next 48 hours and a Cuban landfall will occur. I personally do not see it not turning and missing Cuba at this point.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM)


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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Rasvar]
      #25595 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

Quote:

Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.




The one I'm looking at is in 15 min intervals, I guess I'm just not seeing what you're seeing. NHC puts it at 285, which is about 7.5 degrees short of WNW. Discussion says it should be finding that weakness in the ridge and turning NW, then N in the next day or so. Of course, they didn't expected it to wobble this far west either...


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rule
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25596 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

This thing is going West all night. Yucatan may need to start buying plywood.

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breeezy
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25597 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM

I love this forum......

hey tenavilla... where is "right back where they started from"?


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SoonerShawn
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NHC [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25598 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:44 PM

Not to bash them but I guess the NHC feels that if they keep saying that the ridge will weaken and Ivan **SHOULD** take a more northerly turn it will eventually happen. The word "should" is becoming one of my least favorite words at this point. I think they need to go back to having just the 72hr forecast and forget about the 5 day stuff. It just puts more people in a frenzy and most of the time is incorrect from what I've seen. They are pretty good at the 72hr track so keep they should leave it at that. Again, just my opinion.

ShawnS

I see what you are saying but be patient. Trust me, the NHC knows what is at stake here and has a real hard call to make including all the evacs in S. FL that have taken place as well as the rest of the Gulf Coast getting ready for what may be

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:57 PM)


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StormHound
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25600 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 PM

Quote:

I am no genius but did that report just say that they are calling this one west and east? I got the part about an eventual turn to the northwest, but then they said they were going to the east of the package? Duh. could some one explain what that said?




They said the track was adjusted to the left, but was on the east side of the current models.

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BillD
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25601 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM

The NHC track has been east/right of the "model consensus" now for the last day or so, according to the NHC. They have their reasons for doing this, some are explained in the discussion. My take on it is that they are not so sure that after looking at what is and has happened with this storm, that the models have it exactly right. Also they always work with averages (which is a very good thing) and don't make major changes to the official track because a couple of models swing one way or the other. But, bottom line and I quote from the 11PM discussion:

BEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE Ivan WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

It is too early to tell where Ivan will end up, or even how strong Ivan will be when it gets where it is going.

Bill


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Frank P
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Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #25602 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM

I don't think they have all that much confidence in their forecast, and certainly don't want the west coast of Florida to let their guard down... its conceivable that the track could continue to slip off to the west over time... who knows.... I did nail the 285 degree heading in an earlier post, and also the NHC discusses the shear issue that I mentioned as a factor for weakening to a "major" hurricane in the GOM... and not a Cat 5 as discussed in the 11 pm... you can't measure direction based on an hour of wobbles... you need to average it out over time of at least 3-6 hours per se... I don't know where this thing will end up but people along the Northern and NE GOM need to be seriously thinking about their hurricane plans, if this scenario plays out...

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SoonerShawn
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My last post [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25603 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM

Sorry, take out "keep" in the last sentence.

ShawnS


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Rasvar
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Re: NHC [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25604 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM

Not even sure the 72's have been al that great this year. I think the five day serves a a purpose. Three days does not always give enough to initiate saftey measures. However, timing and intensity forecast has been weak this year, IMHO. I think that is more nature teaching us that we don't know as much as we think we do.

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rule
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25605 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:51 PM

LI Phil,

"Katy" is a Shetland Sheepdog, a "Sheltie".

About 25 pounds. I call her "Portly", but she gets mad.

I wish I had a herd of Sheep to keep her busy....

I can guarantee she could herd Ivan!

Back to our regularly scheduled program...


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tenavilla
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Re: warm water, landfall [Re: breeezy]
      #25606 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:52 PM

I remember the Charley forecast starting around Ft. Meyers, moving up to Tampa, then ending up right back near Ft. Meyers. Frances forecast started around Palm Beach, moved all over the place, then ended up right back in that general area. Of course, things are so crazy these days I might be off by a little bit, but that's what I remember.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25607 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:54 PM

At least they do not lose the hurricanes like they did in the 50's. I was talking to my mother today and she said when I was a little girl in the early 50's, that tracking was so poor they actually "lost" the hurricane for a while. So we may not be able to put a mark on the map and say this is where the eye is going to land, but at least we now can see where the cane is going at all times and we don't lose them anymore.

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SoonerShawn
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BillD [Re: Frank P]
      #25608 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 PM

You are correct and that is my point. If they have to play CYA in every advisory by saying that the track is very uncertain after 3 days than why bother with taking it out to 5 days anyway. This certainly is not the first storm that they have had to put that phrase in there. Almost all of them as far as I can remember. I understand the reasoning behind them starting this up about 2-3 yrs ago but IMO it is only making things worse.

ShawnS


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rule
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Re: NHC [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25609 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:56 PM

I agree about the 5 Day forecast. It's just too far out. They need to stick with the 3 day for now.

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SoonerShawn
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Rasvar [Re: Rasvar]
      #25610 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:58 PM

What good did the 5 day do with Charley or Frances for that matter. By the time the 5 day does verify it is pretty obvious where it will be because it's almost on land by then ( just a figure of speach on that one)

ShawnS


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: BillD [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25611 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM

I think the 5 day forcast track is pretty useless and I'd like to see them just go out three days.
Too much room for error and not accurate at all.

ANyone else tired of Ivan.......raise you hand !!!


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Rasvar
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Re: NHC [Re: rule]
      #25612 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM

Only problem is that a three day forecast would make it impossible to get some areas evacuated in time. Granted, it does lead to extra evacuations. It is a no win situation.

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rule
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Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25614 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 PM

<raises hand.... and a foot!>

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25615 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 PM

I think you can pretty much evacuate in 3 days with proper planning.

The Keys are probably the worst part of the state to evacuate. If the west track prooves true, the keys were evacuated and will only receive a small breeze........sigh...


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25616 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:03 PM

Im raisin mine!!!!

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BillD
Weather Analyst


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Re: BillD [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25617 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:05 PM

Shawn, I agree that the 5 day forecast idea has not worked out very well. But the problem is not the NHC, it is the media. Those of us here on this forum know how uncertain even a 3 day forecast is, but the media hypes the 5 day like it is a certain thing.

Plus with the explosion of the Internet, there are lots a lots of people that don't understand how inexact the forecasts are, looking up the 5 day forecast on the NHC or other websites and freaking out.

Bill


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: NHC [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25618 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM

You can evacuate some areas in three days. However, those extra two days allow time to do preps. People want time to prepare. Not to mention, you always have too many people evacuating. The fact that the path never pointed at Miami for Frances was a blessing. It if had been further south, I-95 and the Turnpike would have been much bigger parking lot then it aready was.

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rule
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Still West [Re: rule]
      #25619 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM

Still going West.

Anyone have a strength measurment?

Paging Yucatan, your plane is leaving....


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




The bottom line is... [Re: BillD]
      #25620 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:09 PM

good idea,just not working out the way it was meant to.

Now that I've had my say, I'm turning my attention back to Ivan.

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


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Re: BillD [Re: BillD]
      #25622 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM

Good point, Bill.

The Internet has really been an added component to coverage. It's only going to get worse.

While I'm at it, I would LOVE to donate some money to this site, but I've spent myself into a hole getting ready for Frances and Ivan. Maybe next month... I really would like to donate something because this site has been (at the least!) a stess outlet for me during all this.


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jamserve
Unregistered




Re: NHC [Re: Rasvar]
      #25623 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM

How about a 5-day but only showing the cone with 3-day forecast points and not the 5-day points. That way the media can't point to a 5-day location and give people the impression they are in the path (or not).

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tenavilla
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Re: Still West [Re: rule]
      #25624 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:14 PM

Yes, still west. For awhile I thought maybe I was looking at it wrong, trying to evaluate general motion in increments that were too small. But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.

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jultime
Unregistered




Re: BillD [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #25626 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:16 PM

Yup, sick of Ivan.

The moving truck is supposed to be at my place Monday to load up to move back to Clearwater, FL. That's IF Ivan doesn't decide to go visit Tampa Bay. Perhaps by Monday morning we'll have a better idea on where Ivan is going. My intuition is that its not going to hit the west coast of Florida (fingers crossed)

And I also agree that the 5 day track is a waste of time.

I plan on getting hurricane ready as soon as I move into my house. At least the neighbors won't laugh at me anymore.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25629 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:18 PM

Recon is airborne at this time from Biloxi.

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NHC 5 Day [Re: jultime]
      #25630 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:20 PM

Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12

Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...

Anyone else with me?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Still West [Re: tenavilla]
      #25632 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM

I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Re: NHC 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #25633 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM

I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: 11pm discussion Yuk [Re: Frank P]
      #25639 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:28 PM

I have been watching the water vapor loop most of the day. It looks to me like Ivan is no longer squashed like it was on the N and NW, and the moisture around Ivan is lifting to the NW. I think Ivan is about to start its NW turn. I hope I am wrong for the Caymans' sake.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Thread [Re: BillD]
      #25642 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

New Thread posted-thanks

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Still West [Re: tenavilla]
      #25644 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

Quote:

But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.




The last couple of NHC forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.


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KJJBCr
Unregistered




Re: Still West [Re: Rasvar]
      #25668 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 PM

Do you realize that Charlie was exactly in the same place exactly one month ago. Look at one of the interactive sites where you can see the path of prior storms. I can not believe how similar Ivan and Charlie are!

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