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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: record breaker [Re: rule]
      #25533 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:03 PM

Probably now, not later. The water under Ivan is very warm now, and shear is forecast once Ivan enters the GOM which will inhibit development after it loses strength over Cuba. However that assumes that Ivan will cross Cuba, if it ends up going through the Yucatan Channel, anything is possible.

Bill


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Movement [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25534 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM

ShawnS,
I agree. I think it's back on track. (If it holds)

I'm sticking with my West of Grand Cayman prediction. It looks to me that the Path Of Least Resistance is over Western Cuba. So maybe by morning it's WSW / W of Grand Cayman and starting a turn to the North over Western Cuba...


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waatcher
Unregistered




Re: record breaker [Re: tenavilla]
      #25535 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM

the GFDL and canadian models make me very nervous in new orleans

how accurate have they been so far?

thanks for being such an awesome site


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: record breaker [Re: Keith234]
      #25537 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 PM

a met would better answer this question, but it has something to do with the cooling of the atmosphere at night time. It has been a long time, so I don't remember the best answer to that question, only that that is typical.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25538 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM

The CMC has been the outlier of all the models thus far and the most accurate up to this point.I have been following the model for at least five days now.The CMC to is pushing landfall further W have a hard time getting a perspective on it yet though.The ULL in the Atlantic I believe was suppose to play a bigger role than it has if anything it has been pushing Ivan W by using the ridge.I mentioned the other day Ivan would at best maybe graze Jamacia the eye went S.Yea it was probably the friction theory J.B. has only it seems to occur on slow moving storms on land to the N.I believe that may occur again as Ivan approaches Cuba if the forward speed is slow and lacking a decent steering current.After that I think the troff that is suppose to come may be too weak.the five day forcast here on the MS Gulf Coast has changed to no rain and little tem. change.The ULL in the Atlantic is being slowed down by the ridge in the SE CONUS.So that leaves us with what do we have for steering currents later in week.I hope that HF,Scott,Jason,or Clark might could throw something in to enlighten me.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25539 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM

I think you're right, I do remember a few storms that just exploded over night. Go to bed with a Cat III, wake up to a Cat V.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: record breaker [Re: waatcher]
      #25540 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 PM

These 2 models tend to be the farthest west typically. At this point, though, even the GFDL wasn't quite far enough west last night as per Gary Gray's discussion found here:

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/index.html


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: record breaker [Re: waatcher]
      #25542 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:12 PM

Beyond 48 hours, ALL the models have been a bust on this one - not a single model fcst Ivan to be near Grand Cayman 3 or 4 days ago (at least none that I saw). Who would have thought we'd be seeing this situation 24-36 hours ago? You can forecast anything you want right now beyond 48 hours, but don't bet on it with a slow moving cylone.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: robynsmom]
      #25543 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:14 PM

As far as "why", I'm not qualified to answer that.

However, lower pressure means more "suction" into the storm, making it turn faster. It's like an ice skater moving their arms in close to increase their spin speed. So lower pressure usually translates into higher wind speeds, i.e., faster spin.

Feel free to flog me with a wet tracking chart if you don't think this is correct.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: record breaker [Re: MrSpock]
      #25544 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:16 PM

The reason that storms fire up at night rather than day time has to do with the way hurricanes utilize heat. It gathers heat energy all day and then at night it releases the energy causing the convection to flare up. Heat rises and cold air falls and it is the interaction between the hot and cold air that causes the hurricane to tighten up and to spin. We are talking about the upper levels of the atmosphere where a 90 degree heat coming off water mixes or opposes with temperatures in the atmosphere well below freezing.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25545 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:17 PM

There's no rain associated with the jet stream pushing down. Not sure about temp change, but temps nationwide have been pretty good, so it may not have too much of a temp change associated with it either.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: record breaker [Re: RevUp]
      #25546 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:18 PM

Jeff,

I gotta agree witcha wholeheartedly. This one is making predicting Frances look like a picnic.

Ivan's got his own agenda and right now we just gotta play by it.

I think this bad boy plunks below 900mb before all is said and done...if it's in the GOM when that happens, all I can say is PRAY!

He goes where he wants...screw the (aborted) dynagel drop...I'm not saying Camille ATTM, but you gotta start thinking along those lines.

Let's hope Coobah shears him to shreds.

George Town, Grand Cayman...and the area known as Hell (yes, there is a town in the western end of Grand Cayman called Hell), let's hope they got all the turtles secured and the hatches battened...it is not going to be pretty there.

Pray for the Caymans...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25547 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:21 PM

Could someone please give the LSU servers a good kick? I want my WV loop back!

Still tracking N of W... somewhat still on track.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25548 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM

Re: the poll

Wow... I'm surprised. I voted no.

I can't see it doing that. Yeah, it's a BIG storm, but not THAT big.

(prepares crow sandwich)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25549 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM

Doesn't that equate to maybe a weaker troff overall that may have little impact in the long run.Temperture changes cause wind motion does it not.The movement of one mass to another location due to pressure and wind changes.

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captgene
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 13
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: MikeC]
      #25550 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:27 PM

spinner of east coast of fl no one seems to see

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: record breaker [Re: LI Phil]
      #25551 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM

Quote:

Ivan's got his own agenda and right now we just gotta play by it.
I think this bad boy plunks below 900mb before all is said and done...if it's in the GOM when that happens, all I can say is PRAY!



Amen to that! I think the real challenge is just to anticipate how it will affect the Caymans in the short term. Will it be there by noon Sunday? I'm thinking the path of least resistance is more westward than northward for the next 48. That would change the forecast picture entirely!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: rule]
      #25552 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM

Rule (kinda like that handle),

I'm not saying (although I did post it) that it will get below 900, only that Ivan has been an enigma (what was that Churchill quote?) wrapped in a riddle...blah.blah.blah. But this one has clearly got the potential for such...It's already the sixth most powerful cane in the Atlantic...and in the environment it's currently in, what's there to stop it from intensifying further? And the eye is bigger than Grand Cayman Island.

Quite frankly, I'm scared...living up here safe and sound on LI...I pray for all you people who may potentially be in the path...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25553 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:29 PM

javlin, what do you think about the ECMWF at this point? It seems to be a fairly good runner at this point.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: javlin]
      #25554 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

I don't know. I do know that jet stream equals stronger steering currents. Plus, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the jet stream is upper level, which means that you won't always notice a difference in your weather. I teach the basic facts about these things in my earth science class, but not often enough to feel 100% confident about it. Actually, now that I think about it, it's not the jet stream that causes the temp/precip changes, but the position of it determines how far south the fronts can come in from Canada. Now I'm going to have to pull out my old textbooks and look that up.

The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the NHC is predicting. They are already basing their forecast on this, I think the problem is in the timing. I really don't believe they anticipated Ivan staying on the drifting westerly track as long as it did/has.

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)


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