javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I really have not looked at it real close seen glimps of it been seeing alot of the basic model all hooking E.There is a guy over at S2K drops off about 11:00 pm CDT the 1/4 pages of the his name is Montrealboy.Alot of people like to bash because of the old format but I think it deals with synoptic patterns better esp. talking troff's from the N.You might right be Tenavilla just seem to me I heard something abiut the steering happened lower probably wrong.I think one could just about stick a fork in predictions on this one.Ivan as Phil said will go as he pleases right now.Got a feeling he makes the YUC gap.In the intermission break that we had went and looked at WV loop again.The ULL seems to of lately started the S track still pushing that ridge on .Once these two come to the same lat. that eastward swing part of the equation is over.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I wouldn't put too much faith on the forecast of more shear in the GOM right at the moment. It seems that the predictions that have been made so far about the weather conditions ahead of have not been all that great.Let's wait for the shear to actually show up first.
ShawnS
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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not to freak you out, but after 9 innings of the Phils/Mets game, both teams had 9 runs on 11 hits.......storm, reachs 910 mbs........Ok, enough, now I'm freaking out my Vulcan mind.
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Renee
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I understand Phil. Watching some of the media coverage of the memorial of the day left me feeling very sad and appalled all over again.
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Renee
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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My husband is biting at the bit to go to Lowes and load up on plywood and supplies. He wants to construct a mini emergency shelter within our garage. I'm telling him we don't need to worry...IF the storm comes to Tally, the shear will be weaken it like Kate was in 1985....that wasn't too bad.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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01Z observation from Grand Cayman.
Wind 060deg (ENE) at 30kts gusting to 44kts (34.5mph gusting to 50.7mph). Pressure 1003mb.
Recon scheduled to be airborne at 0200Z. 23 minutes ago.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:25 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am not seeing any problem with the motion or track right now. It sure looks like it will be dead on for the 6Z position forecast. Stairstepping nicely on track. I do not see missing Cuba at all.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Renee et. al.
Thanks for the kind words. I'm actually glad my post was the last one on the last "page". Didn't mean to bring everyone down...the past is just that..the past.
Onto the Horrific..
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I don't know about missing Cuba, it may make that NW turn before then. However, I don't see it making the next forecast point. When I hold my straightedge up to the screen and follow the eye, it's barely north of west, that doesn't put it on the right track for the immediate future. When it gets to the end of that ridge, we'll have to see what happens. I do agree with a lot of people though, all bets are off on this one. You kind of give up after awhile. I am very interested to see the 11pm update. Wonder which way they'll shift, since they've been all over the place.
An interesting note, though. With both and they were all over the place and eventually ended up right back where they started.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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11:00 discussion and forecast is out. Do not see anything earth shattering. Slight shift of track west.
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Off topic, but Jeez, Phil. I'm sorry.
My dog just forced me to play with her for 5 minutes... Playing "Buggy" under the covers of my bed.
Somehow I make a connection between a "pet" (member of the family) and the unquestioning love that they show and your loss at the other end. (If that makes sense.)
Remember what is important to you Phil, but remember to move on as well. Life is Dynamic, just as is.
Oh great. My dog.. "Katy", want to play some more. Can't deny that!
Back to .. 
Please continue your life, Phil. Time will heal somehwhat...
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It is a stairstep path. Goes about thirty min West and then about 10-15 min NW. Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT FIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7. AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:35 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I hate to differ with you but the path it is on right now it won't even come close to the eye crossing Cuba. In fact the path it is on right now, it would be hard pressed to miss going over the yucatan. I'm guessing that you are saying that it will change its overall movement by then.
ShawnS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well says different, but I'm going with 271degrees. Due west on the loop. 1 pixel north, in the last frame, looked more like the eye expanding a little.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am no genius but did that report just say that they are calling this one west and east? I got the part about an eventual turn to the northwest, but then they said they were going to the east of the package? Duh. could some one explain what that said?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks Rule and all...lets keep focused on ...btw...my 14 lb Jack Russell knows I'm upset...animals got more damn smarts that we (humans) do that's for damn sure...
This monster commands our attention...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Never said that the current course was going to stay. I just think that the 5:00 PM forecast for 6Z is going to be very close to verifying. A lot closer then the 12 hour positions had been. If the 12Z position for the 11:00PM is just as close as I think the 6Z will be, I feel that has a very good grip on the storm for the next 48 hours and a Cuban landfall will occur. I personally do not see it not turning and missing Cuba at this point.
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM)
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
Look at a loop that runs with 15-30 minutes interval and it looks right on target.
The one I'm looking at is in 15 min intervals, I guess I'm just not seeing what you're seeing. puts it at 285, which is about 7.5 degrees short of WNW. Discussion says it should be finding that weakness in the ridge and turning NW, then N in the next day or so. Of course, they didn't expected it to wobble this far west either...
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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This thing is going West all night. Yucatan may need to start buying plywood.
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