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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
current path [Re: MikeC]
      #25462 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:50 PM

Wow, so now it's going West?

Certainly got it's strength back as well.

Poor Jamaica. It's just now really moving off of station. They just got creamed.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: current path [Re: rule]
      #25463 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:52 PM

952
URNT12 KNHC 112218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2218Z
B. 18 DEG 07 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2309 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 318 DEG 135 KT
G. 217 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 12 C/ 3119 M
J. 22 C/ 3108 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C17
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A Ivan OB 24
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Canadian Club for Steve? [Re: MikeC]
      #25464 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:53 PM

Mike...you're not allowed to have a life . You can't leave the site for a second.

One good thing about the site going down was that I was able to check out a whole bunch of other stuff, read up on all the models, etc.

Steve, have you seen the canadian? It's the westerly outlier of course, but it also puts you in the bullseye.

The models have all shifted westward, so now it looks as though JK, co-mod Coop & Andy1Tom might need to think about heading to GA.

Accuweather has a strange cone, the easternmost part of it has little old moi as an end target. Let's stay away from that one, shall we?

CAT V and still strengthening? Good lord, Grand Cayman had better have all their planes in the air NOW with residents aboard. Hope the cruise ships bolted town...

Anyhoo...glad the site is back up. I was worried I'd have to watch two russian women smack a little yellow sphere around all night...

Peace, and pray for Grand Cayman!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
912 mb [Re: rule]
      #25465 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:55 PM

Storm Ivan: Observed By AF #966
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 11, 2004 17:18:00
Position of the center: 18 07' N 79 29' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2309m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: KT
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 135KT (155.25mph) From 318
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010nm (11.5miles) From Center At Bearing 217
Minimum pressure: 912mb (26.93in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being C17
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm

Sixth strongest hurricane ever

Records:

1. Hurricane GILBERT 888 mb 160 KT
2. 1935 FL KEYS 892 mb ??? KT (Gusts reported to 175 KT)
3. Hurricane ALLEN 899 mb 165 KT
4. Hurricane CAMILLE 905 mb 165 KT
4. Hurricane MITCH 905 mb 155 KT
6. Hurricane Ivan 912 mb 145 KT


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




What? Western Gulf? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25467 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:57 PM

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

VERY INTERESTING WHAT THIS SAYS!

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: current path [Re: rule]
      #25468 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:58 PM

While the Atlantic trough continues to sag (nearly to Yucatan!) the flip side is there's not much left of it East of Florida! I guess the path of least resistance is towards the West, but I'm getting concerned about when it turns North. I guess a huge loop back to Florida from the central GOM would be dumb, but still...

That SE trough is really reinforced at the moment. I'm still not sure how Ivan is going to interact with that.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: current path [Re: rule]
      #25469 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM

NEW THREAD...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: Rasvar]
      #25470 - Sat Sep 11 2004 06:59 PM

The trough is very evident today, as it brings clouds and an overcast but dry weather here in Long Island. The trough will pick up Ivan later in the forecast period I think and bringing huge amounts of rain to the Applachian moutain area, and people in New york and pennslyania. The main concern for most people is where will it landfall, well right now it seems as though it will slam into the Florida Panhandle but my thinking is more west for this reason. The ridge in the east is going to build because of the jet once again entering the United States, this will cause Ivan to stay on it's wnw to nw course, until the trough starts acting upon it and grabing it but by then it will have already caused it's devastation. So, anyone in the area from New Orleans to about Tampa now seems that will have a major hurricane make landfall, but nothing is certain yet

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan [Re: DroopGB31]
      #25471 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

On several of the tv stations here they were saying that the forecasts were all based on the assumption that Ivan would beat the trough currently moving down to the Gulf. More to the point, they said it was a race with respect to what arrived in the GOM first, the trough or Ivan. If the trough gets here first, the forecast shifts back to the right, if not, it stays where it is. Any thoughts on what is "winning"? I'm a little concerned that Ivan doesn't seem to be in any hurry at the moment. I don't like it when I hear things like it's a race, and steering currents are weak once past Cuba. That usually doesn't bode well for last minute preparations (still remembering Charley's quick turn at the last minute). Don't get me wrong, we have all our supplies, etc, but...I don't like the idea of a last minute panic if it heads our way.

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 912 mb [Re: Frank P]
      #25477 - Sat Sep 11 2004 07:11 PM

I wanted to know how far west are you guys talking about. It's been awhile since I've had a chance to look here today. I live in Tallahassee and the NHC seems to be just left of me. Why is it that it looses so much strength after passing Cuba on it's way to the Panhandle. Will it make landfall closer to Tallahassee or Pensacola?

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