danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/east/
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Now that's an impressive image - and Javier.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Okay...so am I reading the discussion right...they are forecasting this thing to go from a 110KT major hurricane to a 60KT Tropical Storm...in 12 hours? What kinda sheer are they expecting over the gulf? *looks around for the turbofans creating the incredible hurricane stopping wall*
EDIT: It appears there was an error in the discussion forecast. The 60KT forecast was suppose to be "inland" not "over water".
Edited by Domino (Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have just noticed that the ULL in the atlantic is getting squashed:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
So if that is happening to the ULL, what is doing it and how will that effect the westward movement of will that Entity stop 's Westward movement and force him back to the east as well?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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JackF
Unregistered
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This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?
i just posted on s2k and put out the scenario of a big slowdown or stall and it styas down there and we eventually get a track way east
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Last two hours of IR loops shows mostly west and looks at the moment that it will pass south and west of the Caymen Island..... right now it is due south of the island..... could the Canadian have this thing pegged???... I sure hope not.... the island will get pounded for sure but unless he takes a very hard right, they will not get the worst of the eye wall.... has not made landfall yet as a Cat 5, but he's running out of options and will have to nail somebody before it all said an done..
things keep trending west, a good sign for central and south florida, not to good for panhandle and perhaps westward?
you can also see the westward movement on the Cuba radar loop, link below
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/01Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif
hard to sleep with a monster lurking about... 
As I said about , that I didn't think it would be Floyd type track, I'm starting to think that will not be a Charlie type event either... just don't see a strong trof playing out and shunting him off to the NE..... but this is a slow moving hurricane and no one can say for sure.... every one from LA to the Fl Keys are still in the game as far as I'm concerned
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...
be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...
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caneman
Unregistered
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Quote:
Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...
be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...
Local met just said the slower Westerly movement is worse for us on West coast and indicated if it ended up on the Yucatan it would get pulled to the Big Bend area. I guess getting caught up in the Westerlies.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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that might end up being the case and for my sake I sure hope so as I don't want any part of the thing... but right now as things appear on the sat and radar loops it sure looks to be heading towards the Yucatan Channel or extreme western tip of Cuba.... of course things can and do change...
you look at the overall track history since entering the Caribbean he's been on a basically overall steady WNW direction for a long time.... I think this will continue for a while longer before the NW to N to perhaps a NNE turn... and I think I'm am buying what the models are dishing out at the moment..... for the short term anyway
if its stalls, all bets are off naturally.....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just spotted a trof dipping down into the masondixon area of theUS. This little cane hangs around playing the callipso much longer and it will get booted back over the Tampa Bay area as though it was intended to go there all along. DISCLAIMER:
I have no business making forecasts as I did not stay at a Holiday INN last night and I don't know a trof from a trough!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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hehe....
heck it might just wobble right on to the WNW all the way to Texas .... who knows
slow moving powerful hurricanes are such a royal pain in the butt......
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SAM33
Unregistered
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looks as if there could be a east turn now in the GOM.... i see the ULL of florida weakening and a strong ridge coming down out of middle of US, which i think the models are picking up on..... problem is timing....storm has got to get into gulf for it to get picked up and shoved NE and possibly to the east coast, through florida and out to atlantic.... looks like Panama City eastward to Fort Myers, more like Big Bend, to Fort Myers look to be under the gun.....interesting that is about to miss his another island
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Fred08
Unregistered
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for some reason i see the shear starting to take effect in the gulf.... look just off the texas coast..... strong shear too....
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I must have missed the northerly component while sleeping. That is too bad, as I would have liked to see it go with the mets are saying. I'm still saying miss Cuba and end up much further west than projections.
I also wanted to reply to the long post on page 5 about the models. I don't remember all of my points, but I agreed with some of what you said. I personally like the 5-day forecast for scientific purposes, not public knowledge. 5-days is way too far out to get a good estimate, but a bad estimate (to me) is better than nothing. I think the cone is vital to those models, as it shows the uncertainty. So, when you're comparing shifts in model predictions, ask yourself.... is it still in the original cone? The the model is valid and the shift is reasonable. The reason the cone is so large at 5-days is the uncertainty increases dramatically. If you remove the cone, you will panic the public, who do not understand that the model predictions are only estimates and not the actual track. They will think that the actual model prediction is what is going to happen. People tend to overrestimate the knowledge and understanding of the general public.... We are not the general public! The cone at least shows the possibility of error. Anyway, I would try and deter the media from showing this forecast and often unnecessarity worrying the public.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Your right there is some shear, but the storm isn't forecasted to go into the central Gulf. The storm right now is crazy strong, on the infared imagery there is some black cloud tops, you hardely ever see those!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm just not seeing this north turn, maybe a NW turn but anything more than that is drastic. It seems like all the models want the hurricane to hit Florida or near it. Maybe I'm not seeing what the models are seeing but it seems that the models keep on turning and plows thur on it's WNW NW course. That would be something if it made landfall on the Yutcatan Penisula.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Anyone notice that hurricane force winds now extend 90 miles from the center. Seems like yesterday morning they only extended 30, or maybe 50?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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You mean NM?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am sure this hurricane has not read climatology and does not give a rotten fig for what we think of it. But it is sure interesting to watch.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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