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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: jamserve]
      #25835 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:22 AM

I've got to be reading this wrong. 15 in/hr?


Quote:

[url=http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm]

http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm[/url]

Here's an interesting link to current wx in the Cayman's. Check out the rain rate.

J




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #25836 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:23 AM

I dunno Bobbi....looking at that loop in the link you provided, I see nothing but SW to NE flow all across the Gulf....all the way from the Bay of Campeche through Florida. The flow directly in front of Ivan,...up to the Cuban coast, does still flow East to West ala the ridge. However, that 2nd trough is diving down quite rapidly and is now to the Gulf around LA and Texas. I still see the first trough pushing eastward off the Carolina coast. I am starting to think that there is an increasing prospect of a NE turn once Ivan reaches the Gulf. As some ppl have mentioned, the models are even starting to show a NE hook, although they tend to turn the storm after landfall. Let's watch the future model runs. I would not be surprised to see some earlier NE turns showing up. I believe that ridge might start to relenquish its grip on Ivan.

--Lou


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jamserve
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: LadyStorm]
      #25837 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:24 AM

yeah, that and the 72" total for the day...

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: jamserve]
      #25838 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM

I read a post on storm2k that the rainfall amounts being reported on Grand cayman were in tenths of an inch..thus 72 inches would actually be 7.2 inches reported thus far...a much more reasonable amount.

--Lou


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: LadyStorm]
      #25839 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM

15 in/hr is a legit reading. It is based on if the rain was still falling at the current rate. That rate is never maintained for more then a few min, though. Considering that the system appears to have been lost at that time, it looks like the eyewall was approaching. I am guessing the station lost power. Looks very similar to the pattern I had with Charley. Granted, no where near the force in Charley as is Ivan.

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: jamserve]
      #25840 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:26 AM

that's a bunch 'o rain!!!...hard to fathom...

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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: jamserve]
      #25841 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:27 AM

That is unreal says rain today 72.74in

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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zim01
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: Rasvar]
      #25842 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:30 AM

http://www.weatherincayman.com/

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: CentralFlorida]
      #25843 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:32 AM

The total rain looks to be a system that does not report rain as the software expects. Rain rate is normally dynamic. Looks like the rain counts have not been reset for this system. Can't by the tenths of an inch argument. There is not a rain gage that would report down to a ten thousandths of an inch like that report would be showing.

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: recmod]
      #25844 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:33 AM

Lou,
I have been watching those loops all morning and have come to the same conclusion. I cannot see where they have it going more west with the current flow as it is.

MaryAnn


Quote:

I dunno Bobbi....looking at that loop in the link you provided, I see nothing but SW to NE flow all across the Gulf....all the way from the Bay of Campeche through Florida. The flow directly in front of Ivan,...up to the Cuban coast, does still flow East to West ala the ridge.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: recmod]
      #25845 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:35 AM

That sounds more probable/realistic.


Quote:

I read a post on storm2k that the rainfall amounts being reported on Grand cayman were in tenths of an inch..thus 72 inches would actually be 7.2 inches reported thus far...a much more reasonable amount.

--Lou




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #25846 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:37 AM

URNT12 KNHC 121439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1439Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
81 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2411 M
D. 080 KT
E. 323 DEG 045 NM
F. 069 DEG 131 KT
G. 326 DEG 025 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3031 M
J. 17 C/ 3032 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-50
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A Ivan OB 06
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.

;
ShawnS


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: The Trof [Re: belleami]
      #25847 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:38 AM

The Trof looks weak and flat .Ivan for the last few frames trending WNW again after some NW movement.Ivan has missed the last two pieces of realestate thus far not without consequences for the inhabitants though.Ivan looks to be heading for the YUC gap that will make the turn happen at 85' to 89' alot of area yea but he has had a nice steady speed thus far.It's been mention that the 500mb associated with trof is weak as it passes N of Ivan.

Edited by javlin (Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 AM)


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #25848 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 AM

does anyone have a site that i could get what the actual storm surge during Opal was? have plan a going but got to have a plan b just in case

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zim01
Unregistered




Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: andy1tom]
      #25849 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:44 AM

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9502/tr9502.pdf

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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: KC]
      #25850 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:46 AM

I still don't think the peninsula, even southwest are in the clear yet. The clouds and breeze in my area (central inland Florida) are "different", just like before Charley and Frances, but not typical of a normal average day.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




The Turn? [Re: javlin]
      #25851 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:47 AM

This turn is no sure thing by any means. I know that everything points to Ivan being effected by the trough but I would place it at a 50/50 right now. If the trof is weak I say the chances are <50 for a northerly turn.

ShawnS


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: The Turn? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25852 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:48 AM

shawn we get it, but its not going to houston.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




By the way... [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25853 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:50 AM

for those interested in all the wobbles it looks like it has made another one back to the west, again.

ShawnS


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KimB
Unregistered




O/T but weather related question [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25854 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:53 AM

This site is amazing I have been following it for some time. I have a question if someone could be so kind as to answer. I am suppose to fly in to Orlando on Wed. Does anyone see this as a problem, is Ivan heading that way at all that anyone can see.

Thanks everyone


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