Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Fox news talking about the "possibility" of New Orleans as a landfall site.
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anonymous
Unregistered
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I just saw that too. I am in Baton Rouge, and the weatherman here are starting to be concerned.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I wouldnt be surprised if this storm seriously misbhaves once he enters the gulf.. The gulf is a hurricanes playground.. Lets see what he does once he enters.. 
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Actually, New Orleans and Mobile are looking good for the landfall area of hurricane . JB did say that area was a hot spot for strong landfalling hurricanes, let's see if he's right. No one take this too personal, I'm not wishing the storm your way it has to make landfall somewhere once it's in the GOM.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HMY
Unregistered
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Projected path or not, I don't think anybody really knows. Wondering how it will play out. was a fast shock to the system, was long and drawn out and by now with I am utterly exhausted. Fortunately, nothing else is popping up out there. (knocking on wood)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Don't think that just because the water in the GOM is very warm, hurricanes become stronger. There is some shear coming down, let's hope that it can work it's magic on .
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I have been wondering about the schedule the has been following with recon flights. Two nights in a row, we have had an intensifying hurricane approaching heavily populated areas, only to have a 6 hour lapse of recon data between flights at that critical time. It seems to me the should be in that storm continuously as long as it is a threat. I know there are budget contraints, but this is a serious situation. Isn't it true that real-time recon data input into the models helps give a clearer picture of the storm's predicted path? Seems to me that the forecasters are truly in the dark as to the eventual landfall with . Maybe a continuous recon data feed would help....??????
--Lou
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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agreed... anything can happen at this point.. Its the track that concerns me more than the strength.. Dont want people to be caught off guard..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Seele
Unregistered
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I think they've up'd the recon schedule to a flight every 3 hours starting today.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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John Madura, chief of the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office, made these comments in a local newpaper this morning:
"""Forecasting storms in the Atlantic is more straightforward, Madura said, because the Bermuda high plays such a large role in their track.
"The Gulf of Mexico is hard to forecast," he said. "It's notorious. It's the graveyard of busted forecasts." ""
GOM, the graveyard of busted forecasts.... what a great quote, and how apropos!
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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109
NOUS42 KNHC 121630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 12 SEP 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEP 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 13/1800,2100,14/0000Z A. 14/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3109A B. AFXXX 3209A
C. 13/1500Z C. 14/0001Z
D. 22.2N 84.1W D. 23.5N 84.5
E. 13/1700Z TO 14/0030Z E. 14/0200Z TO 14/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 14/1200Z A. 14/1200,1500,1800Z
B. NOAA9 3309A B. AFXXX 3409A
C. 14/0530Z C. 14/0930Z
D. N/A D. 22.5N 82.7W
E. N/A E. 14/1100Z TO 14/1830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That's a good quote and it makes sense as opposed to some other quotes that I have heard. Wouldn't it be easy if hurricanes just traveled west from where they formed; and then the earth would stop spinning! LOL
P.S I changed my avatar, and I'm keeping it this way.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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He better start gaining some lat. fast or he will not make the track. The way it looks now he would have to take a straight NW path starting right now to make it to the very western tip of Cuba, at least that's how I see it at the moment.
ShawnS
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waatcher
Unregistered
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looks that way to me too
with the scientific straight edge method...
it looks like it would nail the yucatan
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The following information is about weather conditions on the Cayman Islands:
1. South Sound station:
http://www.weatherincayman.com/
http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm
reported an 88 mph gust this morning at 7:40 before all gauges fell to 0, indicating that the equipment is probably damaged or gone. They also reported 72" of rain with rates up to 96" per hour, probably an exaggeration due to wind rocking the gauge. The barometer has fallen from 1007 yesterday at 10am to 972 (28.70") before the station stopped reporting. Historical graphs are available at
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IGEORGET1
2. Savannah:
http://www.weatherincayman.com/zf1ej/wx.htm
reported a gust of 79 mph at 4:16 a.m. before the transmissions stopped. They reported a barometer fall from 998 at midnight to 984 at 4 a.m.
3. Red Bay:
has not reported since 9/9/04.
4.The airport at Georgetown:
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_ad...ity2=BASSETERRE
had a sustained wind of 35 mph at 9 p.m. last night with gusts to 51 before it stopped transmitting.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I don't think it will hit Cuba and I have never thought that it would. I somehow had a feeling that it would continue it's westward track, and not abide to the forecast.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Gumby/Pensacola
Unregistered
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The latest models have it shifting west some
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp
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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
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wouldnt suprise me if avoids cuba and the yocatan and goes between them.....seeing how it likes to avoid land 
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Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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They would have to because moved farther west. The 5 PM forecast is going to an interesting one, anyone think that they'll give on there drastic recurvature and Florida panhandle landfall?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Gumby/Pensacola
Unregistered
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Can anyone tell me how the weather service derives there forcast model, I heard they average all or some third party models?
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