52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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I dont think there going to change it much. It will be interesting at 5:00. Good the sharks back! 
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tikibar
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
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Hi.... It may say new subscriber to the left, but I just forgot my old user name and pass. I haven't been here for two years since moving from Delray Bch to Wisconsin. I think I used to be known as Red Dawg.....maybe....??? 
Been lurking lots this season, though.....
I'm gonna step out on a limb since I see everyones forecasts of landfall moving further and further west along the gulf coast.
I just don't see it. and some of the right-side outlying models are starting to back me up.
Sure the cat 4 & 5 can bull its way through as we've been seeing, but, I think, once the sheer kicks in will become more and more suseptible to steering influences.
Ultimately, I see the big hook coming thats gonna whip him back towards the peninsula...... and a landfall at about Cedar Key to Clearwater.
Just my hunch based on my observations<-worth 2 centavos
Disclaimer: I'm not a met. Never claimed to be one. Base all your decisions on official products of the . 
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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If it does go to the Yucatan I think it will jet away from it , just like it did with Jam.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Yes, another question. looks like he is pushing the first trof in the gulf to the north somewhat while the second trof is getting very close to the Texas coast. What happens when the two trofs back into each other?
ShawnS
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Gumby/Pensacola
Unregistered
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Thanks Tikibar, I hope you are right. The waiting is almost as bad as riding them out. I 
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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I've also noticed 's influence on the weather around him. Look how the surrounding features are affected by .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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spook
Unregistered
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Looks to me Cancun should be under a watch?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Just made the flying run to N. AL to pick up some backup computer systems for use during ...just settling in and starting the forecast process.
Ivan looks on track for my earlier ideas from last week, but the forecast is still far from certain. I am having real problems buying the further west tracks (Biloxi Westward), but we will have to see where the NW to N turn begins to get a good handle on it. To my eye, it still looks like a Panhandle storm, but we are now in await and see mode.
Folks here are flooding their home improvement stores and grocery stores just in case, and the town is buzzing with anticpation.
A note: as you might imagine it is about to get really busy here...I will post and respond as I have time...but please don't be offended if you ask me a question and you don't get an answer.
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Jason Kelley
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Ivan is still on a West path. Slight very Slight North but not gaining much latitude at all.
Is there a big curve in 's future? Well at this rate it will take until mid week to know for sure.
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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It wouldnt surprise me a bit if it did make it to texas!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JK,
Good to have a real met on line...
Agree with you on the panhandle, but 's sure tracking west...he'll probably still go over Coobah, although even that's a bit doubtful now.
How far is PCB from Biloxi? Is it less than 100 miles?
Just make sure the Spinacker is still standing when is all said and done, 'k?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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We are a bit over 100 miles away, to say the least.
Yes, he is moving a good bit west, but all the data that I can lay my hands on says that it shouldn't last a whole lot longer...we'll see.
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Sun Sep 12 2004 03:19 PM)
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sullynole
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I believe there's a good 200 miles or so between PCB and Biloxi.
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John
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> all the data that I can lay my hands on says that it should last a whole lot longer
Should or Shoudn't?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tikibar
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
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did you mean to say "should" or "shouldn't"?
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Do you mean "shouldn't" last longer?
ShawnS
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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SHOULDN'T...
That is what 4 hrs of sleep does for you in the last 48.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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LOL! I guess we don't hinge on his every word, do we?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Well, 3 people in a row asking you the same thing.
I think that should tell you that we really pay attention to what you say.
ShawnS
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Wow three people asking the same question, just kidding. seems to have good outflow in just about all quads except the western. Why is this?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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