HMY
Unregistered
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My original thought was following , maybe a bit to the south. I expanded my cone to cover Tampa to the south. I'm still thinking that wants to hit the peninsula, even though science may be against it. I have images of a community going to bed thinking will pass on by them only to be woken up by the howling of the wind. Scary and dramatic as that's how it's been going for the past month.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Daniel we always here talk of them creating their own environment as Cat 5... maybe that's what is doing.. he'll go where he wants to...
interesting comment on this subject on the NO AFD this afternoon
ANOTHER CONCERN IS HISTORICAL TRACKS OF
CATEGORY 4 AND 5 HURRICANES IN SEPTEMBER IN THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA ARE MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS YUCATAN...THEN MAINLAND MEXICO...LIKE GILBERT. LARGER STORMS TEND TO CREATE THEIR OWN ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE LESS INFLUENCE FROM SURROUNDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS STORMS THAT HAVE GONE AGAINST CLIMATOLOGY...SO THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND FUTURE STRENGTH OF . MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO TAKE A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN...BUT MOST ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW AND SUGGESTING A U.S. LANDFALL NEAR PANAMA CITY FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN THE
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CAUSE TO TURN NORTH AND POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HE NEARS THE NORTH GULF COAST. IT IS STRONGLY ADVISED THAT EVERYONE WATCH FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS HURRICANE.
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Motion looks NW over the last few hours.... what do you think?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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The lightning in the eyewall is interesting, and I am thinking it is due to the dry air being ingested in the system, further evidence of interaction with a mid-latitude system. In fact, I am surprised the pressure is steady at 916, I actually thought it might have bumped up a little.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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This is exactly my current worry, although I don't think it would be that strong. A weak C2 would do it. Maybe at Steinhatchee.
I was five years old living at Gulfport 8 blocks from the GOM when Camille came in. We went to Jackson to flee the storm. Har! House made it through but for some shingle loss.
Scared my pants off!
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I could buy NW... I still think the EW clips West Cuba.
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SoonerShawn
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I kind of looks like it may be happening again. Maybe someone else may know.
SoonerShawn ( I'll put it like this from now on)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Should say "it"
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TheElNino
Registered User
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like is undergoing a major eyewall replacement right now. The small inner eyewall just collapsed allowing the much larger 40 mile outer eyewall to begin shrinking. I think well see approach Gilbert levels late tonight or tomorrow.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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The NW side of sure just got "flat". I wonder if that will smooth out or cause a big wobble?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Elnino, I agree on the EWRC, last IR pix has it all but collapse... will be hard to determine motion during the cycle, but right before the cycle started it looked to be wobbling to the NW or at least 300 degrees... it better start getting more northerly in its track or its going to run into the Yucatan... no telling how strong it might get... boy, we have a Cat 5 in the GOM tomorrow night heading NW or N and the pucker factor along the gulf coast will be extremely high... mine included...
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Indeed about the lightning , though I thought just the opposite about the pressure - I was looking for the huge drop, but I was also looking for the eyewall cycle to finish. Is it just me, or is this cycle taking a long time? Have you seen how in the 5 o'clock discussion how a 30 mile eye is discussed and in recent vortex transmissions a 40 mile eye has taken place. Very strange, a pulsating concentric eyewall...
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MrSpock
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I have a post on 26135 that talks about that a little. It is likely starting to feel the effects of the trough. It won't cause it to wobble, per se, but that is what is expected to turn it.
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MrSpock
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My expectation for the slightly higher pressure was due to the storm not "presenting" as well as earlier, plus that . In fact, if the pressure doesn't rise much, it should be that much easier to go back to cat 5 before the next . It does seem like there is always a cycle in progress, and maybe that is the case.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not NW but between WNW and NW. Last heading from the 5 to the 8 advisories put it .3 further W and .2 further N. (True WNW is 2:1).
Bastardi's latest comments (4:30) narrows his landfall forecast to between Pensacola and the mouth of the Mississippi (kind of where I called it on Monday in response to scottsvb on a thread 500 pages back).
He doesn't feel this storm will behave like Lili and may (worst case scenario) rival Camile's intensity but not surpass it. He sees a Florence-sized storm (and possibly as big as Carla) with -sized intensity. Someone's gonna pay. I've been missing too many threads because they're coming too fast and furious to keep up with, but this should be an interseting week. I'll leave you with this one Bastardi quote:
It is a very serious situation, but one that there is plenty of time to prepare for. The danger I think is not a shift back east...but perhaps even further west, in the track.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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It looks like the inner eyewall is collapsing, but overall presentation seems a little ragged, especially in the hindered NW section. Maybe part of 's grand plan...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
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meto
Weather Guru
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looks may even be more north than nw in latest pics.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Mr. Spock,
Could you tell me why there seems to be "unimpeded" outflow from to the North, yet on the West side there are new thunderstorm bands forming, or at least a "resistance" to the West?
I could guess, but I'd rather hear it from someone who knows what they are talking about.
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SoonerShawn
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It is really hard to get a handle on what direction it is going right now. It seems to always look diferent when the eye wall is shrinking because you keep following the dot as it gets smaller and it appears to be moving a little one direction when that may not be the true one direction. If I had to guess, which I will, I say it is still between WNW and NW like Steve said.
SoonerShawn
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MrSpock
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Thanks, but I'd also like to hear this from a met, but here is my guess:
The outflow on the NW side is being impeded on the last couple of frames, and that would be the impact of the ULL in all likelihood.
The degradation in convection between the outflow, and the core, may be related to some drier air being drawn in from Cuba. I missed that possibility before, but saw it when you asked the question.
Based on satellite presentation, at the very least I am not expecting any signifcant strengthening in the short term unless it could work through some of these issues.
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