Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I remember that one, that was one of the first storms that I really took interest in tracking and having evidence for my forecast. Wow Mr. Spock you were making forecasts to the high school and you didn't become a met.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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When you said you would pass on any donations above the server replacement, that sealed it for me. I just donated what I could. It looks to me like a professionally run website, and I can support that.
Anyway, back to . I see, (through sheer luck, I suspect), did go West of Grand Caymen as I suspected. However, my nerves are not being settled by the track.
It looks to me that the strong West flow the entire area has been having is now reversing. Is not the West GOM now starting to cloud up and filter East a bit? The Atlantic ridge hauling Eastward?
It looks currently to me a strong Easterly flow above . Which I guess follows earlier discussions about slow looping into the GOM and then drifting into Tampa - Big Bend area.
Where I get lost is by the time gets in the GOM, the Easterly currents may be doing other things. I can't "see" that far ahead, but would like to hear from those who feel they can.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Why is everyone bashing me? I'm just posting what my eyes see. Right now I see a definite WNW movement , NOT NW! I start a new job tomorrow and the last thing I what is to have make a trip here and destroy the building where I will be working. I tell you what, It sounds more like it could be "sour grapes" from others because it MAY not be coming to them. It works both ways.Some of you need to really go back and read most of my posts where I stated that I KNEW it wasn't coming here. Just because I say that I don't see a NW movement or that the trof may not have the effect on that is predicted doesn't mean I'm wishcasting. Crap, if we all agreed on everything what fun would it be? Some of us are right and some are wrong. If ANYONE wishcasts a major hurricane to them than I know of a few psycho wards here that I would be more than happy to get the number for and give to you. Now, in the words of Forest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that."
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I heard the Cayman Islands suffered severe/catastrophic damage..they just mentioned that on Fox 13. No pictures, just a report. Pray...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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I for one am a little disturbed by all the landfall projections beyond 48 hours (like we're playing the lottery). A good landfall forecast involves more than just a geographic point - there's TIMING and INTENSITY , as well as some technical reasoning (more than just a gut feeling).
Anything less tends to detract from the excellent discussion that has taken place on this board through the years! Just my .02
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Spock, Kirk here.
I was NEVER wishing for it to come at me, although I guess there's that rush one gets when it comes to facing danger...
IF, and that is a tremendous IF, there were no repurcussions from a hurricane, like rooves ripped off, trees downed, tornadoes, no power for two-three weeks, etc., then I suppose one could make an argument that it might be "fun" to experience one. Unfortunately, anyone who's been through one...or more...ain't wishing for another. What FL has been through the past 4 weeks is almost unfathomable...so excuse them if they want to send it ANYWHERE but there.
ISAHELL, and that's the first time I've referred to her by any other name should have been a wakeup call...Bonnie, , & Gaston were the second acts. Let's hope is the showstopper with no encore...but lets also face facts...it's September 12...we're not even at the peak yet (close).
2004 is going into the record books, even if the season ended today.
I have not done the requisite research but when is the last time that the first 9 TD's all became named storms?
OK here's a WISHCAST....I wish the hell that would just go away...
(guess that's not gonna happen tho).
Kirk out.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i think we all did that as kids... my kids are hoping it hits here so they don't have to go to school. they don't understand they will have to make up the days. when i told them if they leave tuesday to take all they wanted to keep because everything left behind will be history it sunk in. cat v hits our house and its probably 5 ft under water. anyone wants this one they can have it.
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 13
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heat the source of the storm , deep water temps pretty high as i see it
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I don't think they'll let flights out when it is affecting whatever area. The reason there are so many tornadoes in the right-front quadrant, is that the land causes extra friction with the extreme spin, and the system starts to collapse.
The thunderstorm up and downdrafts tend to make more trips in the storm, and that is why it is more normal to see hail in a regular convective situation. Hurricane hunters do not fly into storms over land because of the severe turbulence making it too dangerous.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Yes, SoonerShawn (who signs his messages ShawnS) formerly known as just Shawn all those years ago, was accused of wishcasting on numerous occasions. Not to dredge up old issues, but I was mostly on his side back then, mostly. We all can slide into it at times, and I've noticed it is usually those that have not ever experienced a hurricane that do it and think that it would be cool to have one come their way. Anyone that has actually experienced one would never consider that option.
Bill
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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well said on Isabel and Fla.
In July, it looked like a slow season. The thing about all of these storms so close together in time is, that they do disrupt the atmosphere, and the oceans. The stronger the storm, the stronger the ULL on the other side of it (in my opinion), plus you have all kinds of upwelling. With Gilbert, it left an upper level high in the gulf for weeks, and really quieted things down. I think the atmosphere is going to need to recover somewhat after this.
Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 07:04 PM)
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FLHotti
Unregistered
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I read the lastest discussion regarding and it talked about the ridges and fronts that are expected to turn . Also mention continued eroding of these ridges, what does that mean?
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Here's a link to Key West.
Winds are already gusting at 26MPH
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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"""I just got word through a source that the Super Ensemble Model is brining into Biloxi Thursday morning. I am still trying to confirm this, but it would be along the same lines as what the Euro and is pointing to. I'll try to get additional confirmation on this, but obviously with some of these trends we are seeing, we have reason to be a bit nervous. I am still encouraged, however, that a lot of the other guidance is still east of us. The problem is, a lot of this guidance has been too far to the right so far. Let's see if makes any adjustment to their next track. I doubt it will be anything too drastic though."""
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
Sure would like Clark's thoughts on this one....
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
... my kids are hoping it hits here so they don't have to go to school.
Excellent point! isn't even headed this way, and our kids are out of school until further notice! Go figure.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Javlin, and the Canadian model have been on to this for 2 days or more.
The hard copy I printed Friday night was for the 96hour fcst; or 00Z Sep 15th.
At that time it indicated could/would be east of New Orleans and south of Mobile.
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 12 2004 07:19 PM)
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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MrSpock - you can't imagine how much I want you to be right that the atmosphere will calm down. We were on the outskirts of both and (Naples has been incredibly fortunate), but I know too many people who were impacted. I volunteered in Punta Gorda. When the Thursday 5am had it coming straight over my head, I freaked!
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I wasn't bashing you or what you are saying. I don't entirely agree with your opinoin on where is going, but I respect your opinion and have been weighing it along with the others. I was going into the past (which was probably a mistake) to try and explain the hypersensitivity about wishcasting on this board. I was NOT implying that you were wishcasting, I don't think you are or have been.
Bill
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Quote:
... my kids are hoping it hits here so they don't have to go to school.
I will never understand any person who wishes destruction to get a day off of school.... This attitude is worse in College, and it annoys me greatly.
Earlier people were talking about the WWL comment about evacuation. Can someone show me confirmation of this? I am bothered by this too. A New Orleans strike is my biggest worry, but I really think it's too early to start scaring everyone. If the statement made was true and I took it in the right context, I think the met should have instead said... "New Orleans residents should keep a close eye on and begin considering possible evacuation routes."
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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gonyen
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
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Hi All,
This is my first post. I have been lurking around through , , and . I would like to thank everyone for all the info, I feel I've learned quite a bit.
We've (Pinellas County) been pretty lucky through the last two but this one has me worried. The remnants of the eye of passed about 40 miles or so NE of my house, but we didn't really get much until it made its way back into the Gulf and we started picking up the feeder bands from the South.
My heart goes out to all those who have lost so much this season. And my prayers go out to all those in 's path.
I have a question. I've been looking at this link:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html
They highlight the -24C line in the WV loop. Can someone tell me the significance of this line?
Thanks in advance and I'll go back to lurking.
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