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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Category 5 Again
      #26205 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:54 PM

3PM
Ivan has began its move more northwest now.

Tropical Depression #11 has formed east of the Leeward Islands, first advisory will be at 5PM

Noon Update

Ivan remains a category 5, and probably will for a little longer, but shear is forecast to increase so it may weaken later, back to a category 4. In any case the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane.

The tropical storm watch is still up for the Florida keys, as some of the extreme outer bands are even extending iinto South Florida.

Errors may be large in this forecast track!

Thanks Skeetobite



The track is similar to the previous NHC advisory, but a little more east.


10AM Update
This morning Ivan's track has been shifted left, cetered around the Alabama/Florida border. The cone of error extends westward to Central Louisana and Eastward to Florida's Big Bend. There is still enough uncertainty that the west coast of Florida needs to watch it as well. Nobody in the gulf is all clear yet, unfortunately. But the NHC's track is the most likely.

Also there is a tropical wave approaching the leeward islans of the Caribbean that may form into Tropical Depression Eleven later today.



Original Very Long Update
Hurricane Ivan is again a category 5 storm, Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an extremely violent eyewall in their latest pass, with hail and lightning (which is extremely rare for a hurricane of this strength) Maximum sustained winds are 160MpH and the track is still taking it toward the Panhandle, although closer to the Alabama border.

Still yet the certainty of the track and more so intensity when it nears is up for grabs. The system has not made a distinct northerly turn yet, it may clip the extreme western edge of Cuba, but with the "land avoidance" trait that Ivan has had (except for Grenada) I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go through the straits.



It will be a nervous next few days in the Gulf. But the best thing to do is be prepared if it were to head your way if you live along the Gulf coast. And keep an eye on the storm.

If it stays on the forecast track, inland will have flooding problems in areas like Georgia, and the Carolinas. More to come later.

Reposted from Clark E:

Ivan is currently finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle, as recon has recently reported just one, larger eyewall of 28 n. mi. in diameter. Satellite photos confirm this, as the eye became less distinct an hour or two ago, but has shown signs of reappearing in recent images. From here, another 6-12hr of consolidation can be expected followed by one last shot at restrengthening before a combination of factors -- interactions with Cuba, eyewall/internal system dynamics, and a weakened outflow channel to the NE -- result in slow but steady weakening entering the Gulf.

Right now, outflow is impressive in all quadrants but to the NW, where it is only fair. However, this has been the case for a day or two now, and we can all see what effect this has had on the storm -- not much. Last pressure was 917mb, while the height of the 700mb surface remains below 2400m...or over 600m below "normal." A 20% difference shows you how strong this storm is on the whole. A little bit of dry air appears to be impinging upon the storm on the north & northwest sides, but this is mainly a result of dry air off of Cuba than anything else.

Essentially, the dry air you see surrounding Ivan is a result of the storm itself and nothing that should impact the strength of the storm. In the atmosphere, generally rising and sinking motion should approximately balance out over a large area. Inside Ivan, there is a large amount of rising air, creating the convection powering the storm. Only a small fraction of this rising motion is counterbalanced by sinking motion in the eye; the rest has to balanced out along the periphery of the storm, thus the resultant "moat" of dry air around the storm. This dry air is thus not a product of actual dry air that will be infused into the storm, but storm-"created" dry air that should have little impact on its intensity.

In the short term, Ivan should continue to move WNW - roughly 295 degrees - then gradually turn NW and NNW over the course of the next 24-36 hours. On this path, it will come very close to the extreme western tip of Cuba; if we thought Charley took the path of least resistance over the island, Ivan may well redefine that notion. Hurricane warnings should go up for the western part of the island in the very near future, as the storm should pass over or very near to the tip sometime late tomorrow.

Unfortunately, this will probably be when the storm is at its peak intensity again...but fortunately, this will probably be the last time it reaches that intensity. The outflow channel provided by the upper-low in the Atlantic is gradually weakening as Ivan moves westward and the low retreats; furthermore, interactions with Cuba and eyewall replacement cycles should put an end to further intensification sometime late tomorrow, followed by perhaps a *slight* increase in shear having an impact at later times.

From there, forward motion should gradually begin to increase. Right now, Ivan is currently rounding the base of the ridge and entering somewhat of a "col" region of very weak steering currents. The current forward motion -- speed-wise -- will likely continue for another day to day and a half before the system gets caught up in the midlatitude steering flow. The shortwave over the S. Central US has dug a bit further south than expected and has additional support on the way from the Pacific Northwest. A slight bit further push to the south and east with this system is likely; I don't anticipate it weakening to any large degree nor retreating before the storm gets there. With this in mind, I feel confident that the Biloxi area is as far west as the storm gets. It's not inconceivable that it goes further west, I just view it as extremely unlikely.

After passing near the tip of Cuba through the Yucutan channel, the storm should roughly parallel the 85W line before turning NNE or even NE as it approaches the coast. On this path, the Panama City to Apalachicola area (and points from Apalachicola to St. Marks on the NE-SW oriented coast) are most likely to be affected. The NHC forecast path is a bit further west than my thinking here at landfall (though the landfall locations are similar, I think a more pronounced turn late in the Gulf is more likely), as are the majority of models. Landfall in about 3 to 3 and a half days -- late Wednesday most likely -- is what I anticipate somewhere in the Panama City-Apalachicola area. I'm trending towards the eastern side of that swath, with a forecast point early Thursday about 35 mi. west of Tallahassee, but that is subject to change. Remember, even 3-3.5 days out, track errors are subject to large biases.

Intensity is going to be the big question. We saw Bonnie not do much in this general region as it approached the coast, but the synoptic conditions were quite a bit different then - not to mention the intensity and size of the storm - than they are now. Shear should increase in the Gulf, yes, but not by much. Waters are still warm, as no storm has touched these waters to any large degree this season (note that Bonnie was moving 15-20mph throughout this area and took place almost a month ago). The storm will weaken before landfall, but by how much? As it approaches shore is the time when much of the weakening will take place, so it is not inconceiveable to see many worried folk in the Fl. Panhandle fretting over a 140-150mph hurricane approaching the coast, as with Opal. The storm should not make landfall at that intensity, however, thanks to increasing interaction with the trough as well as shallower waters (resulting in less overall energy for the storm); an intensity of 120-135mph, category 3/4, is more likely.

Again though, everyone from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should be paying close attention to this storm. I don't believe that this is one for the peninsula in any way, though don't be surprised to see tropical storm force conditions approach the shore as the storm moves northward. On the projected path, hurricane watches will likely be issued along the northern Gulf coast late tomorrow or early Tuesday, with hurricane warnings coming early-midday Tuesday. Tropical storm watches will likely be issued for areas to the east along the Fl. west coast, mostly as a precautionary device in case the wind field -- currently extending out ~175mi -- impacts the coast. But, in any case, people along the northern Gulf coast need to take heed of this one -- it's not pulling hard right between the Keys and Cuba and then hard north between the Bahamas and Florida and missing land, nor is it going to pull a Roxanne from 1995 and sit and spin and die in the Gulf.

Pressed for a landfall point into a mythical landfall pool, I would say a bit east of Mexico Beach (alternatively, a bit west of Cape San Blas) as a 125-130mph cat 3 storm around midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

I'll try to add a bit more tomorrow and answer any questions I see, though it's going to be a rather busy day on my end.

However, despite this, it is still in everyone's best interests to take the word of the National Hurricane Center in times like this, noting the large uncertainty in the forecasted track and intensity of the storm as well as the fact that they are the professionals and have been doing this for many, many years.
--

ED's Thoughts on Ivan
Mike and Clark have pretty much covered the various possibilities regarding Ivan - but I'll add a few thoughts of my own. I also feel that Ivan will miss a western Cuba landfall and pass through the Yucatan Channel while still at Cat V (140kts). I think that the frontal system that entered the Pacific northwest a couple of days ago (as noted by Clark) will become more of a major player in the eventual course that Ivan takes. Steering currents in the southeast Gulf are very weak so I don't believe that Ivan will be in too much of a hurry to move northward - but I do expect a turn to the north.

At about 25 degrees, I think that Ivan will begin a more north northeasterly movement under the influence of the approaching front to the far northwest and the slow retreat of the Atlantic ridge. With this slow movement, I wouldn't be surprised to see landfall as late as Thursday mid-day - perhaps in the Suwannee area just north of Cedar Key. Intensity at landfall of 115kts (Cat III) with movement continuing to the north northeast - remaining over land and located in eastern North Carolina on Saturday as a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm (that's a long ride over land, but the path would be just inland from the Atlantic - and Ivan will take quite a long time to spin down). Be prepared for future track changes from NHC - with weak steering currents, defining Ivan's future track is not an easy task for anyone. I guess that I'm riding the eastern edge of Clark's cone, but everyone from Biloxi to Yankeetown needs to keep close tabs on Ivan's progress.

------

I have a big head when it comes to this stuff, so going to toss out my take as well. Trends are favoring Ed's approach to Ivan.. the storm has persistently gone slower, been behind schedule, and bucked the intensity forecasts mostly with eyewall fluctuations. Therefore my thinking is it will make more of a turn to the right in the Gulf, and come ashore early Thursday in the Big Bend. For now at least... further west will mean a much greater degree of coastal destruction.
In terms of intensity, Clark has the guiding factors outlined well already. The reduction in intensity that should result from moving into a slightly sheared environment, with shallower coastal waters, should come into play. Probably what will happen is that at some point the storm will stop recovering from eyewall replacement cycles.. and while remaining intense broaden, with a looser inner core. I'm expecting a landfall intensity of 110kt or so.. for now. It could easily spin down to a broad cat 2 system like Frances.. though unlikely it could still be a solid 4 when it hits also.
I'll move it around a couple of times probably between now and Wednesday, but for now here's my strike forecast:
Taylor County FL (Keaton Beach area), 110kt, 3 AM Thursday 9/16
-HF


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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: MikeC]
      #26207 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:58 PM

The only question now is how deep will he go? I know I've been calling ~900mb, but, it could happen.

Didn't think he'd get to CAT V this soon, but it had been predicted and shouldn't be a surprise.

He's going AROUND Cuba too. Holy S===!

I guess it's not too early to be contemplating the ramifications of a 160mph hurricane heading up the Bay of Mobile...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Seele
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #26211 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 PM

I'm starting to think ~900mb is possible as well. We have a CAT 5 cane that looks far from perfect on IR, has just lost it's inner eye wall, and from the reports of lightning and hail showing signs of rapid intensification while it's already at ~917mb.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #26213 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 PM

my last post for tonight.... I don't think it is going to hit the west coast of cuba... looks like it heading towards the center of the yucatan channel..... good night all.... somebody is going to have a really bad week this week... hope its not me...

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #26214 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:07 PM

Didnt know we had a new thread posted, but Mike raises some very cogent points about inland Ivan...

The latest cone puts NoLa in play albeit on the western side, and to be honest that freaks me out. I do think a landfall between the PCB and Biloxi is my prediction, but I'm no meterologist, I just played one on TV.....

Secondly, the inland track puts TS Ivan right over the Gold Dome in Downtown Atlanta right at rush hour...Urgh!

I'll place a wager that the local mets will be comparing the flooding in Georgia from Ivan to the flooding from Hurricane Opal

Just also heard a report on WSB-TV and they said that at least 50% of the homes on Grand Cayman were damaged...


Pray for our neighbors to the south and for those who are in the bullseye in the track of Ivan....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: MikeC]
      #26218 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 PM

Thanks Mike for the repost...I seem to have a knack at catching things right before the new threads go up! In any case though, I do want to caution everyone to go with the experts -- the NHC -- when dealing with these storms. I posted what I've analyzed and what I forsee, but they are the experts here. The forecast uncertainty is rather large, even at 3-3.5 days, which means no one from Biloxi east to Cedar Key should let their guard down.

Had the chance to take a break from the storm this weekend to some degree, but the storm is still very much making its presence known here in Tallahassee. Went supply shopping yesterday at the local Target, where they are out of duct tape and had three flashlights left. So yes, I ended up with a Scooby-Doo flashlight...at least it works well! Water supplies are not out, but are running a little low. Ditto ice.

Many businesses are already starting to prepare by putting plywood over their windows. A local Sprint store boarded up today and spray painted "Even Ivan Needs A Cell Phone!" on their windows. A local Barnes & Noble store was boarded up yesterday, while a local T.J. Maxx store was boarded up this afternoon. People are genuinely getting prepared for this thing here, which is really good to see -- Tallahassee has not seen a storm like this in recorded history and is a very susceptible region to high winds and, in parts, flooding. A minimal hurricane would probably result in many, many downed trees and a loss of power throughout much of the city for a couple of days at the least. A category 3 hurricane -- I don't even want to think about it.

As part of the local AMS chapter, I was supposed to give a presentation to a local group of school children this week. However, the class has field trips scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday -- trips that, I imagine, will be canceled due to Ivan. FSU will likely only close if the state tells them to close, as they seem pretty confident about the ability of the campus to withstand a storm...and the ability of people to get to campus during a storm. Not the smartest of ideas, I don't believe, but the state knows better.

Numerous residents still have sandbags left over from Frances, sandbags that are likely getting reused for Ivan....a few people around my place are attesting to that as I type. I'm sure the frenzy will only pick up in the next day or two as the storm nears. I've got a few bags of ice, a bunch of water, and am hoping for the worst to spare us all...I just feel for who it will affect down the line.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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St. David
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Clark]
      #26219 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:16 PM

I think this is the best radar to follow the eye.


http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #26220 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:18 PM

For some reason I get this image of Ivan bouncing around the Carribbean like a self propelled huge pinball bouncing off the bumpers.. (Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Cuba?)

'shana


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andy1tom
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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26221 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM

word around here is if Ivan hits as a 4 or 5 electricity will be out for weeks not days.. looks like it is forecast to the west again. sorry frank but i hope this trend holds

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tenavilla
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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: MikeC]
      #26222 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:19 PM

Just an observation, for what it's worth. The water vapor loop that I look at doesn't show anything south of Cuba. I've been using it to watch the trof building in over the northwest Gulf. Last night when I looked at it, just a small part of Ivan was visible at the bottom of the screen. I haven't looked at it for nearly 24 hours (was gone all day today) and I don't see anymore of Ivan tonight than I did last night. On the radio I kept hearing WNW movement, but he doesn't seem to have made much in the way of northerly progress today. Maybe it's just because he's still only moving 9mph.

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LI Phil
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Ivan is now the official hurricane of the Who... [Re: andy1tom]
      #26223 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:21 PM

Pinball Wizard. Thanks...now I'm going to be humming that for the next two hours...which isn't a bad thing...I can actually play it on the Gee-tar.

Predicting Ivan is making predicting Frances look like a picnic...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cajun Cane
Unregistered




NHC Probability Chart Question... [Re: MikeC]
      #26224 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:23 PM

Question from a frequent lurker....On the 9/12 10 pm NHC probability chart...other than the obvious and nearby locations where Ivan will strike, the next highest probabilty number is for "Gulf 28N 89W" which is virtually the mouth of the Mississippi River..........yet........the NHC is projecting landfall in the panhandle of Florida....even though their probabilty numbers are less.......anyone wanna try to explain?

Thanks......love the site !!!!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... [Re: Cajun Cane]
      #26225 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:27 PM

Site's going to drop for about 5 - 10 minutes at 11:45 sharp while I fix something. Be back momentarily.

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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #26226 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:28 PM

Just listened to the weather chic on ABC. She used my favorite water vapor loop to sell this sucker going to NO. But, I see something different in the radar. There are three ridges. One in the Atlantic, one in the GOM and one over Texas/Louisiana. There is one trough, over the northern GOM. The met said the ridge in the GOM was what was steering Ivan WNW and preventing the northern turn. She said it was strong and would continue to delay that turn and it would end up going right to NO. (Well, she was more descriptive, but I forgot everything she said... which is why I like text reports). Anyway, it seems like the little ridge in the GOM is terribly weak and will soon go away. So, that should turn the storm. Also, the trough is now moving slightly east, as it has been moving slightly west last couple times I looked (like last nightish). What am I missing?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... [Re: MikeC]
      #26227 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:31 PM

Mike do you ever sleep?

Actually whatever you're gonna do will probably help...been knocked off a bunch of times..only for a few minutes...but it's been munching my PMs.

Everybody hang tight...let Mike work his majiK!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Pensacola Area [Re: Terra]
      #26228 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:32 PM

Well I just went to the local website for pensacola and they're making a decision at 8am tomorrow regarding the hurricane and have told people to make the necessary preparations for evacuations and are setting up a consumer information line. Seems escambia and santa rosa aren't taking any chances with this storm. Oh and Gulf power is predicting people would be without power for a minimum of 3 weeks if a cat 3 hurricane landed in that vicinity. Not a pleasant thought.

dani

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Ivan Category 5 Again [Re: Clark]
      #26229 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:35 PM

Clark said: "A local Barnes & Noble store was boarded up yesterday..." I was amused this afternoon to see our local Daytona Beach Barnes & Noble just finishing putting up their plywood. Gee, what does B&N management know about Ivan's track that the mets don't? LOL

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Hmmm
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola Area [Re: dani]
      #26230 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM

(inappropriate post deleted)
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 13 2004 12:12 AM)


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Re: NHC Probability Chart Question... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26231 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:36 PM

bay county is waiting till tomorrow before deciding if evacuations will be issued Tyndall air force base is flying the jets out tomorrow. tomorrow will hell here with finall preps. Jason.. great job on the forecast

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LI Phil
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Hey Coop, JK & Andy1Tom [Re: dani]
      #26232 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:39 PM

Cantore's broadcasting in your backyard...you should go down there and hold up a CFHC rules! sign or something...only kidding.

This will severely test the oft-tested rule that Cantore always broadcasts from where the storm is going versus the Cantore always keeps the storm away from where he's going theory.

All I know is there is a CAT V, about to circumvent Cuba, perhaps pushing a sub 900mb pressure, a-brewing. TWC sez FL panhandle, most models say so too...I'm gonna break with my crowbusting forecast again and say...not florida anymore...sorry rick & frank and shawn (and all you others).

I hope I'm wrong...but it does have to go somewhere...

Mobile Bay? I'm not wishcasting that by any means, but damn, rick, it's really not very funny anymore is it?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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