GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Tjis means that they are having software problems at the computer site. I found images that were loaded out of sequence yesterday and the images were jumping all over the place. Its one of those things that we don;t notice when there is no weather to speak of.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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True, we're not in the cone anymore, but LA wasn't in the cone a few days ago either. So...while I'm feeling a little bit better, I'm going to wait until I see what this thing does once it passes Cuba.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Agree, is a consistent outlier to the west. But even the has been too fast and too far north and west of the actual path. has definitely caused all of us to reconsider the human nature of trying to predict mother nature.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Did you see the Dynagel thread on Storm2k? Not sure if this link will work, but I'll try.... Boy, this place is sure better than they are!!!!!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....eb22608f32cf757
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Before it is over I think the grand lesson in this is that computers are only as smart as the people who put the data in them and the good ole eyeball to the sky is the most accurate. I will be glad when recon gets into US territory and can tell us where this blasted thing really is rather than relying on computer logic. Storms are not logical.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Did you see the Dynagel thread on Storm2k? Not sure if this link will work, but I'll try.... Boy, this place is sure better than they are!!!!!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....eb22608f32cf757
I want to comment on this real quick because it probably needs to be said. Storm2k is a fine board, they came from the beginnings through the palm beach post when they had a hurricane board. I've got a different approach than them but I don't think either one is better than the other.
As long as information gets out and people can discuss it I could care less (You gotta link I'll link it). It's not a competition of any sort, the only thing that matters is that folks can learn about hurricanes and better protect themselves by seeing varied opinions and discussions. That's the gist of it--the more the merrier in gathering facts and discussions to be better informed.
By the way Volume I on the main page article is so good I'm going to leave it up longer today.
I do want to add that it's not quite time to drop your guard in Central Florida. I'd wait until is fully in the gulf and moving solidly before that. If the high near Florida retreats away, then it could head back to the west coast of Florida. Not likely, but still worthy enough to to drop your guard.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Agree all who state not to relax until this passes an area without any chance of return. The dynamic that will tell if this goes back east or not is still developing..the WV shows that lower pressure trough is already pretty far into the norhtern GOM area so I would not be surprised tif this does move significantly east toward the end of the forcast period say starting on Tuesday and continuing into Wed.
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doug
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Does anyone think that this storm might make a turn and take a closer path like Charlie? I've seen stroms in the past make a turn that no one expected. Please let me know.
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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Have you guys seen the Key west radar? they are taking a pounding with feeder bands. Also i noticed that buoy 42003 is reporting winds of 25 knots. 26.01 N 85.91 W
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Ga Resident
Unregistered
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I have a question for the pros. If does indeed make a sharp right & inland Ga. & the Carolinas get hit. What sort of weather can we expect? Should we be considering leaving also? Or do you think it will be something a "normal" house can bear? Thanks for any replies.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yea Revup I think maybe it is far right now cause I think makes the turn N after the YUC.This becuase there is no more land for him to bounce off of.The did have skimming South America,S of Jamica and SW of the Caymans.I don't know if this was due in part that it might of handled the synobtic patterns better.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I would add, that the computers are also only as smart as the DATA that is put into it, and qute frankly, there is so MUCH MORE data that needs to go in, than is able to for a variety of reasons. Data in the oceanic areas is sparse, hence the NOAA flights to use dropsondes to sample the atmosphere around the storm. Also, if a model uses x number of levels in its input, there are theoretically an infinite amount of levels that CAN be input. But then, the 12Z runs wouldn't finish until 0z! (might be an exaggeration). In the winter time, mid-Atl. forecasters are reluctant to forecast strong storms way out into the future, because many times the energy used to create it is out in the Pacific, and except for satellite data, there isn't much data. When it enters land areas, then it can be better factored in.
Because of all of the above, a forum like this can exist and be valuable.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I just noticed (guess I'm still half asleep) that the 8am advisory has hurricane force winds 105 miles from the center. That's amazing.
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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also check out sanf1. look at the windspeed/airpressure plot. If this was all the info i had to go on i would be getting concerned web page
Edited by Bioman (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:00 AM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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That depends on the exact track, but in general, heavy rains and flooding would be the big issue. Winds would still be strong enough to push over trees in the really spongy, rain-soaked l. Those in the N.E quadrant will also face the risk of tornadoes, which on a localized basis, will be more damaging than the core winds. However, we will have to see what the storm looks like at that point. I think the several before this one that have moved through that same area would give a good indication of what to expect. And then you hope it doesn't stall anywhere.
The reason coastal residents leave is for the storm surge, which isn't felt inland. Inland gets the above conditions instead, so it depends on your situation, i.e, are you in a flood-prone area, etc.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Does anyone have the link to the buoy data website?
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am not a meterologist, just a 53 year old woman who is observant. I have observed the outflow direction from this morning from every available satellite I can find. Some of the loops are not in correct sequence and so it's difficult to say this for certain, but the upper level winds are showing a strong blow off to the southeast from 's outflow right now. If you continue to monitor the satellites, you will notice the changes before the advisories come up. Also make sure you account for the fact that all of the satellites are photographed on a skew, which is different than line of sight. Also one other thing is that hurricanes like to travel towards the northpole unless they are not completely tropical in nature. (paraphrased) It appears to me that is no different except he prefers to bounce off land masses. My speculation hopefully not true is that he is looking to make it to the Yucatan and then ping-pong his way to his next land mark. I am saying this with fervent prayer that he decides the panhandle of Florida is too much trouble.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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National Data Buoy Website
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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NHC continues on each advisory to indicate that the northwest turn will begin on that advisory, but each advisory has farther west than north each time, and I am wondering if will ever turn and may end up hitting Texas or Louisiana (which is what the model is showing)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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it seems the nw turn may have already occurred as the coordinates for the last 6 hrs are NW.
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doug
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