MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I think he did mean westward, as that really hasn't changed trends-yet, anyway. If that were an error, he likely would have put out a corrected discussion. The pattern he talked about is somewhere in some of my posts yesterday. Also, on today's pics, notice that the western side is being impinged while the outlow is stretching north. You often see that when a system is trying to turn. It almost looks as if I were trying to push a moving object much heavier than me in a different direction....can't push it much, but you can see WHERE I am pushing on it.
Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 13 2004 01:32 PM)
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richiesurfs
Unregistered
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If you read the whole 11am discussion Stewart said that but he also said they have kept their forecast to the right of the model guidance because of it. Seems to me that they have already built that into their forecast
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I have seen that too but have not put any stock into that as the direction is clarly unchanged all morning.
After it clears Cuba and Yucatan to night, then we may see a mor northerly trend...it seems if the set up on that is still out to about 26n along about 87w...there after until the upper air from the west either continues or abates we'll be unable to say what Tuesday will bring.
It looks like the trough along the upper GOMcoast previously discussed has just about reached it apex and is seen to be lifting out to the ne...The high from TEX and the next trough will have to complete the picture...I still believe a right slide from the trac is indicated. no sign of a sharp turn until later in the period.
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doug
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grasshopper
Unregistered
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Images look pretty impressive. Looks like a clear highway right through central fla.....
looks like high pressure is building almost on top of the "strike" area forcasted @ 11
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I didn't mean to come down on that poster, but he had URGENT capitalized at the beginning of his post and used the IR to show a North Wobble where indeed, the eye was turning inside of the storm. When going to visible, that all straightens itself out.
For the Bastardi fans, he's come out with his forecast for landfall at or near the Mouth of the Mississippi River with 120-140 winds and a pressure of 925-940. He thinks there will be gale force winds out 200 miles to either side of the center and that the storm will move painfully slow through the southern Appalachains causing a fairly catastrophic flood event for some (think that would be GA, SC, NC). He believes the track of will be through the Yucatan channel and not across Cuba.
Certainly this should get everyone's attention almost all the way to Tallahassee. is shaping up to be potentially the worst North Gulf storm in a few decades and certainly one for the history books and a new point of reference for each and every one of us.
I think Bastardi's a bit far west, but either way, if I'm between Bay St. Louis and Orange Beach, I'm REALLY getting my stuff together this afternoon.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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On H2O imagery, it looks like there was a small vortex rounding the base of the trough which helped turn the storm a little. The base of the trough is in the north-cent. GOM, and is having an effect on the system. This trough has likely bottomed, but it is responsible for whatever turn has been seen to this point, and is still drawing it up as we speak.
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richiesurfs
Unregistered
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So are you thinking the is going to adjust their forecasted track all the way back down to the Tampa area? i mean, I know they have margins of error but that would be pretty extreme. I know they have seen everything that you are seeing and more.We all know this track will be tweaked every six hours from now until it hits so I realize that nobody on the Gulf coast is out of the woods yet but still thats an awfully big adjustment. We'll just have to wait and see.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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2:00pm pressure 914mb
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Check out the 72 hour wave heights!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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no not all the way to Tampa. But look at the eastern side of the so called cone...I think that is possible.
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doug
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Even the eastern side of the cone is a problem for Tampa Bay, it would cause some serious flooding on the coast and in the Bay.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Steve,
Is this a new forecast. As in after the dvelopments of today. I was in full agreement, but the little ULL over TN has eaten away at the ridge and could make him well west. Maybe his expert eye sees something that I don't. Landfall in his area would be utterly disasterous. New Orleans could have damage, Biloxi/Gulfport could have severe damage, Dauphin Island/Mobile/Gulf Shores could catastrophic damage. I am supposed to go to Mobile Friday. wonder if that trip will be cancelled.
Edited by jth (Mon Sep 13 2004 02:45 PM)
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Even if it does go in by Tampa, what do you think that means for Daytona?
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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000
URNT12 KNHC 131747
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1747Z
B. 20 DEG 53 MIN N
84 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2305 M
D. 60 KT
E. 321 DEG 86 NM
F. 031 DEG 136 KT
G. 296 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 11 C/ 3056 M
J. 20 C/ 3079 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 3109A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 136 KT NW QUAD 1744Z
The pressure continues to drop. This vortex message comes from the NW quadrant...higher winds will likely be found in the NE quadrant....watch for that next vortex message....Ivan looks to be strengthening more.. The eye has opened completely and the storm is getting more symmetrical.
As for movement....I see a sustained NW-NNW motion for several hours now....can't be considered a wobble any longer. I am starting to get more concerned as to a much further eastward strike than what the is currently forecasting. Not to be alarmist...all of Florida needs to keep in close touch with future updates.
--Lou
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Its still heading NW I dont think NNW yet. Also Mozart you said that the outer bands were going thru Cocoa??? NOT!!!!!!!!! That has nothing todo with . s farthest outer bands are moving thru the Keys and extreme sw florida.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Thanks Lou,
The only way I could be keeping a closer watch is to litterally crawl into the computer screen LOL
I see a more Northerly track as well and agree now that it wouldn't take much of an Easterly componant to bring much worse weather to the Peninsula.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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(Off Topic Post removed by moderator--normally this might be pretty funny, but not now, with so many on edge)
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 02:53 PM)
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Going by the Dvorak GOES floater loop, I'd want to say that the storm is skirting just a little to the right of the forecast track. Not by much (turn on the track markers), but enough that we might be looking at a slight shift eastward of the track coming down the line at the next update.
We're not giving up our vigilance here in Lakeland, I can tell you that! The only thing that worries me around here is the way the counties called for no Monday schools back on Friday. I can understand why at the time, but the part that makes me concerned is that, should against all odds turn to the right, people may not be prepared now in time. The prevailing thought around here is "it's not coming our way", and going back to school on Tuesday is going to reinforce that thinking.
So we'll see. These hurricanes have wrecked havoc on our schools, let alone our wits. Some schools are nearly a month behind now. I was actually amazed they called Monday closures as early as they did. (Back when they did, landfall was anticipated late Monday night/early Tuesday morning). Pinellas was the only county that decided to wait until late Sat/early Sun to make the call. My wife thinks it was so they could have kids relay the word home, rather than rely on media. Dunno - but she's also wishing they waited, as she laughingly said "we're going to be teaching school in July this year" 
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Londovir
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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scottsvb...look at the latest IR shots showing the cloud shield of reaching well up into Central FL....then take a look at the latest Melbourne radar shot. You will clearly see an arching band of showers stretching across the state from Cocoa to just north of Tampa. While you may argue this is not the hurricane per se up in C FL, the convection occuring has definitely been influenced and enhanced by the outermost structure of the hurricane.
--Lou
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lois
Unregistered
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seems to be moving faster
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