AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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That "trough" that someone said is stretched across central Florida isn't really the trough at all. You can clearly see the boundary between the high pressure system to the west and the trough setup north of Florida. As of right now it appears will continue the WNW motion until it's even with about Beacon Hill/Apalachicola(around 85W), then it will track north from there. It has passed well west of the Isle of Youth, and will probably scrape the very western end of Cuba.
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Check the Surf
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staggy
Unregistered
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more on the new disturbance from the 13:35 South Florida Forecast Discussion:
A NEWLY DEVELOPED DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS
MORNING IS FORECASTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BECAUSE IS SO FAR AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...PLAN ON NOT CHANGING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS DISTURBANCE.
If this disturbance moves NW as quickly as it sounds like it will, could it have an effect on or will he be far enough north by then? hmm...
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Colleen: that is a WV loop and it may not give a true representation of the actual movement of the center; HOWEVER having said that the does confirm at least two hours of more northerly, almost NNW movements.
What the wv suggests is an alignment of the moisture to support a more northerly motion. someone else suggested that earlier.
Too early to say this is a trend lets see again in an hour or so,
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doug
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Think I'm going to ask Mike to make a new forum (or 3):
The Stacy Stewart Fan Club
The JB Fan/Foe Club
The Jason Kelley Fan Club 
Seriously, though, JK's been pretty spot on with the whole way, and unfortunately for him, Coop, Andy1Tom and others, this one may be WAY too close to home...
Godspeed PCB.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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It is not moving WNW now but NW to maybe even NNW
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doug
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks...I keep forgetting about the difference in WV loops and such. Information overload, know what I mean? 
I think I'm going to take a nap. Short on sleep, short on patience and definitely in need of a break from loops.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Can anyone confirm that watches will be issued at 4pm for the cental gulf coast?
Our eas just went off for this
HURRICANE HAS GENERATED A SERIES OF LARGE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS SHOW LARGE
SWELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF 27 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...TRAVELING
NORTHWARD AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AS A RESULT LARGE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER THIS EVENING.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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First advisory at 5PM. Could this throw a wrench in the sweepstakes??? Could this pump up the ridge east of FL and force back more westerly???
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
...AND COULD BE
IN THE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Geee...looking at the model runs for this new system, I thought it looked like a threat to Puerto Rico, but then looked likely to turn out to sea.... 
--Lou
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mlamay
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Clearwater, FL
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I definitely think you are right it looks like almost a due North movement. I believe we will see a track shift back to the East at 5p.m. My forcast will put on land E of Tallahassee on Thursday a.m.
I just can't see New Orleans being hit with this one especially just seeing the UKMET loop.
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Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Doesn't seem like it would take much more N motion. to be quite a problem for the Keys, esp. since they're on the east side of the storm. I hope those people aren't coming back to soon.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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11L.NONAME
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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New thread around 5, much shorter than the current one.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Jason or Clark might want to agree or disagree with this but the showers over the central florida area are NOT from the outer bands of . They are from a couple different factors such as daytime heating, easterly flow of moisture from the atlantic, and troughiness over the eastern gulf. The outer bands of are in the keys and extreme southwestern florida.
I also now note a jog to the NNW,, if this turn continues and to the N during the evening then watches and area impact might move further east. Just matters on how much of the digging of the trough comes into the eastern gulf,,,,The strong trough over the rockies is pushing the ridge over Texas and the western gulf alittle more insueing the trough to maybe come alittle more ese then expected eroding the ridge alittle more over the florida-bahamas area.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Keep an eye on it as that is how all the other major disturbances began...........I may just leave the shutters on longer.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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outflow from could be harsh on this system.
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doug
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Local met (Bay News 9) just said bands from were moving up to and through central FL. He might be wrong, but that's what he said.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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The latest HPC track has the new TD going across S. Florida and into the Gulf...no rest for the weary:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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accuwx' forecast differs from considerably...click on the attachment...straight up into Mobile Bay!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Would the outflow produce shear?
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