tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I notice they have the high still squarely over FL. Didn't someone say it was eroding a little more than anticipated?
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JackF
Unregistered
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Where is Rick and his boat anyway?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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These aren't reall "bands" the first of such is down around the keys, but clearly the moisture associated with has traversed up into the Tampa area and the showers are moving in association with the general SE flow around
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doug
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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Hey, if it hits here..I've got insurance. Just got back from Nashville, delivering a Mercedes...and now I gotta do something with this boat. Here's what I'll do...double line the boat on all sides....throw some more bumpers on the sides....and come back to see what's left. My neighbor and his wife took off up the Mobile River about 20 miles...and are gonna tie up to some cypress trees and all..then abandon ship..and see if it is still there...after comes calling.
If it hits Mobile as a cat 4-5....nothing I do to prepare will help...the storm surge would be 20'...and that with the winds..oh well...
just looking at the loops.....just slightly north of nw...definitely not a trend to nnw...but once it starts heading due north...anyone west of that is safe...
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just out of curiousity, since you've been thru a III...if hits to your East (lets say for arguments' sake, PCB) as a III or IV, how bad would it be for your boat? I know a hit to your west could be catastrophic.
Stay safe.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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 IS THAT FOR REAL ??? HOW MUCH STOCK SHOULD I PUT IN THAT PREDICTION ?? All this talk about the forcast shifting back to the east, I was starting to think we were out of the woods. (sorta) 
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Think its very probable that they will change the heading to NNW at 5 and the discussion should be very interesting .. depending on who is writing it.
Aren't really any words on how this is playing out live and hoping to read good discussion tonight here when everyone gets done with work and is up to speed and sure that what looks to be doing isn't a short term trend.
No words.. really.
None at all. Not by me.
And... btw ... Stewart doesn't bring things up for no reason. He is one of the best there is and if he brings it up it is for one very good reason. He isn't one to speculate. Imply yeah.. speculate no.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.
He's in Panama City (he just came on ). They commented that he looks like he'll be in the path of the storm.... so, I guess he's where he wants to be...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It's for real...I wouldn't post it if it weren't.
This attachment shows accuwx predicted path contrasted with . Quite a bit of disagreement...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Mobile is probably safe, but not completely out of the woods. has wobbled NNW the last hour or two, but should begin moving NW again soon. As Rick on Boat said, once it starts moving due north (not wobbles, but extended movement) if you are west of there you are safe.
That said, again I pose the question...Could the new developing depression pump up the ridge east of and force him back west?
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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323
URNT12 KNHC 131954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/19:32:40Z
B. 21 deg 03 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 335 deg 124 kt
G. 235 deg 015 nm
H. 912 mb
I. 10 C/ 3355 m
J. 18 C/ 3341 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z
Looks like Mr Jason Kelley was right (as usual  ) The latest recon fix has the pressure back down to 912mb (not an extrapolated estimate either. is definitely not weakening.
Also, notice that the 1747Z recon fix had the center at 20.53N, 84.41W.....this latest fix is at 21.03N, 84.44W.....a north movement of 10 minutes, with just a 3 minute westward motion. is moving NNW-N.
--Lou
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zim01
Unregistered
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panama city beach
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Quote:
It's for real...I wouldn't post it if it weren't.
This attachment shows accuwx predicted path contrasted with . Quite a bit of disagreement...
Help me to understand what you are saying about a disagreement.
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danigirl
Unregistered
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He's in Panama City now.
dani
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Same path, just delayed NE turn. I could see that happening for sure.
I don't think they will change the movement to NNW based on just a couple of hours of movement. They usually go with 6-9 hour trends. In that time frame, it is solidly NW.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You need to click on the "attachment" located below the header. accuwx stuff is proprietary, so I dare not post the image here (plus it eats up bandwidth).
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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"should begin a NW track"
Why?
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doug
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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yes, I just saw Jim Cantore in Panama City Beach.
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I'll take the 's please !!
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