LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ah Col,
Didja have to mention that? LOL. Agreed.
Boy that sure was a short flight huh?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It looks like will miss Cuba on the current track.I figure with a N jog some because he does not like land that much at roughly 88' W 22'N in 30hrs.The question remains when does the infamous turn begin.If makes 89' or 90' we might just get a visit from an unwanted visitor.CMC way out there now all the way to 92' W if that happens say hello N.O.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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sure thing, baby doll.
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Kelly
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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does anyone have on now? Who is this guy?
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Kelly
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The night guy. Dave Schwartz. You can actually learn from him. He's a pretty good teacher.
Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 13 2004 12:57 AM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Dudes & Dudettes...
This should be proof positive that lunatics like me cannot log off until we fall off our computer chairs...
BTW, I do like Dave Schwartz, but sometimes I want to smack his sorry ass....btw, we dont care about the possible mexican TS storm...no offense...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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I don't mean to be rude, but he's kind of a jackass. No offence to anyone..................
It's deffinately going to hit the US?
There's no chance of it dissipating?
I wasn't aware he's god. And to think that I've been going to mass for nothing all of these years.
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Kelly
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Whoa, bettye....
You can call me (P)al but you cannot dis the schwarrtz....
He's actually very good...give him a chance...you know who sucks? Lemke, that's who....
Donno why many here think she's the bomb but she's NOT ALL THAT.
Ed...feel free to re-mod me down for this one, but that's how I feel!
And who doesn't like Miss Abrahams...????
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Jeffmidtown -- I'll take offense to that "UVa rules the ACC" comment! 
In response to your question, the eye size does not generally determine how strong a storm is...or, to better put it, while many powerful storms may have small eyes and many weaker storms may have larger eyes, the correlation is not very strong.
Many very strong storms can have very large eyes. Isabel and are two such examples. Storms with larger eyes tend to be more stable intensity-wise, while storms with smaller eyes tend to be more unstable intensity-wise as a function of eyewall replacement cycles (the eye is less stable, meaning cycles are more likely).
There may also be some correlation between when a storm goes through many eye cycles, resulting in a large eye, that it is at its peak intensity and will not get stronger, but I'm not sure how strong that is (if at all); it is more my observations than anything else. Large eyes also tend to happen with larger overall storms, but again that is more my observation than anything else.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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missisippi dan asked where i've been.. the short answer is college football. yeah, i'm a nole fan, and a carolina fan, and i have nothing to celebrate. uga dawgs and that dratted miami and their ruination of field goals has cost me a bit of abuse from my clemson-alumni friends (though they got theirs last night). is nothing to celebrate either.
abrams.. remember her from a couple of classes. didn't know her, but i'm sure clark does. i'm actually sort of bored with . nothing against any of the forecasters. can get so much more useful information via internet. but back in the good ol' days (late 80s-mid 90s) was the way to go.
yeah what phil said.. ed, you can use the chainsaw on me. hey, maybe coop feels up to it?
anyhow, wanted to add that i'm real REAL low confidence right now on my big bend ideas. it reasons best with me, as i'm trying to stay ahead of the model trends (don't believe this is a louisiana storm).. it's not even really the course of least regret. that would be the panhandle as a cat 4.. and i don't like that prospect.
okay, gotta get some rest. i'm sure will truncate my workweek later on, but until then it's up with the sun.
HF 0512z13september
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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ok, ya'll.........it's official..................I can't see straight anymore. Got to sleep now.
Phil, I agree with you.....I think will drop to 900mb overnite too.
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Kelly
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I guess they fixed part of the problem. I just got the Supp Vortex from 0217Z Three hour delay.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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HF, I thought Miami was after me again when I saw Ken Dorsey start to lead the 49ers down the field against my beloved Falcons -- if it's not versus , it's in the pros versus the Falcons! Alas, he got knocked out again and the Falcons won, so at least I can claim one victory. It just hasn't been a good three days -- yet alone month and a half -- in terms of all sorts of hurricanes.
Yeah, I know Stephanie through a few means. Can't see this as a LA storm either, but stranger things have happened. Current path says Ft. Walton...think that might be a wee bit too far west. A sooner turn north and NNE is more likely, I think.
I dunno if you all saw the article on the guy in S. Florida who wanted to rent a 747 and fly into the NW part of the storm and dump his water-absorbing junk into the system, but I sure hope he hasn't been able to do so. He said that he thought it'd result in more shear over the storm...a statement like that only further proves why you don't listen to people like him, as he doesn't have any idea what he's talking about. And the potential ecological disaster - yeah, really smart.
In any case, we're about 3 days from a major landfalling system in the U.S....let's all get some rest and get prepared for when it comes. We're going to need it, I'm afraid.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
There may also be some correlation between when a storm goes through many eye cycles, resulting in a large eye, that it is at its peak intensity and will not get stronger, but I'm not sure how strong that is (if at all); it is more my observations than anything else. Large eyes also tend to happen with larger overall storms, but again that is more my observation than anything else.
Clark, I remember learning the same thing - the large eye suggests is at a "mature" stage (it's getting pretty old for most of us anyways). That would fit in with the expansion of the wind field. Not going to go away anytime soon, but it's not going anywhere fast right now.
I still can't see moving north of Cuba's latitude (22.5) until 24 hrs from now, and that would be thru the channel, very near 22 N 86 W. I suspect some of the latest model initializations may have too far east, due to lack of met data.
Gradual acceleration northward is critical to future landfall - I expect there will be much better model consensus developing by Tues. AM with still at least 36 hrs away from any U.S. landfall at that point in time.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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11pm map . Let me know what you think ?
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/yes.jpg
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I did a little rough measuring of while ago. He is roughly 10degrees square. 6 degrees of storm to the north, and 4 to the south.
The northern Gulf Coast will be seeing his outflow/ feeder bands before the eye clears 24.0 N at most anywhere in the Gulf.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Good idea ... could be a very useful graphic 24-36 hrs out.
personally, I don't like the map zoomed in so close ... guess that's why it looks a little too mechanical. (just my opinion)
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
I did a little rough measuring of while ago. He is roughly 10degrees square. 6 degrees of storm to the north, and 4 to the south.
The northern Gulf Coast will be seeing his outflow/ feeder bands before the eye clears 24.0 N at most anywhere in the Gulf.
It's definitely a big storm ... Cozumel had a feeder band move through earlier on Sunday with TS wind gusts.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hard time sleeping, dreaming of hanging about 18 sheets of plywood.... or was I counting plywood in lieu of sheep... Had to take a quick glance at the board for an update as I let my two bassets out for a little evening break....
Dan's our late night hawk watching this thing....good job.... reading the board tells me everthing I need to know... what great input and thoughs by all
Boy, my Mobile and 25 miles to the east guesscast last Monday on Storm2K is looking like a pretty good pick right now.... wonder where cat5 rick has been.... we all tease him but I know, as we all know, rick just being a little silly with that, and he wants no part of this monster....
time to go back to bed, maybe I'll dream about shinges now, and perhaps counts them.... blowing off my roof along with my plywood if this thing hits here.... I still like Mobile and/or a little east..... and I'm keeping my fingers crossed....
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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
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What was up with CBS running the movie "The Perfect Storm"
tonight? About as much class as running "The Towering Inferno" Saturday night!! I still have a question from yesterday-does the Atlantic High or the troughs to the west
have more influence on 's path? Thanks!
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