jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Can someone please post Joe B's current thinking. Not asking for a copy paste, but a synopsis. Thanks in advance.
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Tallahassee
Unregistered
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Sorry..I meant the discussion..not the public advisory. Yes, I too think last track moved very slightly east.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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I cannot speak for everyone on the west coast of Florida, but those I do speak with are NOT letting their guard down. We are not really looking at the 5 day projection path of the models. We are paying closer attention to the fact that this extremly dangerous storm is southwest of us and too close for comfort. Some have finally taken a breath. The blue hue was not becoming of them... 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Oh, thank you ...Stewart will be doing the discussion. No dis to any of the OTHER forecasters, he just explains things better.
I guess the was correct after all..they said last night that the turn would begin soon. 12 hours to be exact. Now I think we can understand WHY they kept it to the east of the forecast models.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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everything BUT the discussion is out now.
http://www.atwc.org/
This is where I usually check for them.
310 deg is the offical movement now.
Right after posting, the discussion came out.
Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 13 2004 03:01 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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actually, their water vapor analysis is very similar to what I wrote yesterday, the only difference since then is that the shift in UL winds over Fla.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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First, has a Cat V ever hit Cuba, and when was the last Cat IV to hit the Panhandle?
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Tallahassee
Unregistered
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Great site thinks..interesting discussion by Stewart.
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Tallahassee
Unregistered
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I apologize again..meant thanks not thinks! Sleep deprived from 3 weeks of hurricane watching 24/7...
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Rational? I don't know...How can you be rational when these storms are not rational?
I agree that storms are not rational, so YOU have to be. THis means keeping abreast of current information, applying your knowledge and experience, making rational decisions based upon what you and those you trust to make good decisions (mets, etc.) and then act on those decisions in a timely manner. *Could* Key West be hit directly, yes, is it likely? No, not based upon what we 'know' about the facts available. No, storms are not rational, but somebody has to be.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Rational is paying attention to the forecasts and public mets on TV/radio. Irrational is news media tunnel vision, focusing on a city rather than a region (i.e. cone of concern).
Rational is preparing for the cyclone, then taking appropriate protective measures if and when it moves within 48 hours of my location. Irrational is hoarding supplies, threatening others, looting, and not looking out for the needs of others.
Rational is the response of many, many people after to help bring in supplies, cleanup, and rebuild. Nothing could have prevented from doing what it did. People did respond with compassion to help out others, though. No need to panic.
"Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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LOL, Kim...you're right. If you live in Jamaica, you're in the clear as far as 's concerned, because he's already made his presence well known. No one else ABOVE him is yet. I think the rule of thumb is that until a storm is past your lat/lon, you're supposed to pay attention. If people want to say I'm irrational, fine. I'm not. I'm very confident in what I do and say. If I was running around knocking on people's doors telling them the sky was falling, get me a room at the Physco-Day Inn.
I'm not sure what 's gonna do, none of us are or we WOULD be able to stop paying attention. Keep in mind that since this turn has started now, it's closer to the peninsula than previously thought. At least, that's what I think. If the N turn starts in a day or so, then we're right back where we were 6 days ago.
Hopefully not. But this is exactly why people NEED to pay attention. Not panic, just monitor.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!
I think what you are seeing is not letting their guard down but instead stopping the holding of our collective breath. We are starting to turn blue and need oxygen to live, so we breathe a collective sigh of relief....but we do NOT let our guard down. I, for one just bought more batteries despite the current forecast, but I also bought a new UPS for my computers. Some sense of normalcy with guarded optimism and constant vigilance.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Redbird
Unregistered
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I agree that this storm could go off course and surprise us so that is why I have all my boards up and other supplies ready. does what it can and does tell all of us to be prepared.
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ToddR
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Afternoon all!
Thanks for the interesting discussions! I have learned more about hurricanes, meteorology, and geography since 8:00 this morning!
Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!
Todd
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Agree entirely, Richard.
Good forecast and discussion from . The only thing I suspect is that they move a little too fast. That can be a good habit, though.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Will post more when the new thread comes out. looks good and finally is feeling the breaking of the ridge over the eastern gulf. Still 2 things can happen and I favor my 3 day forcast of landfall near Biloxi after skimming LA. The other I will mention in next tread. Also I will mention the development of Tropical Storm Jeanne about 150 miles east of Dominica. This should become named when recon goes in there. Im not sure exactly if they are going in this afternoon, but this will be a small compact system.
scottsvb
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
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Quote:
Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!
Todd
I only live two hours away, and if I had the opportunity, I would definitely go. I just hope you're not connecting through Atlanta on Friday ... could be a real mess!
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Palm Bay
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[quote does what it can and does tell all of us to be prepared.
I believe that the bottom line here is responsibility. Most houses here left thier boards up from last week, we made sure that what supplies were used during were restocked, and many of us did not restock the meats, buying what is needed and no more. I have listened to news, and have spent time reading here, learning, checking out links and paying attention. Even though we are in the clear as far as that cone on the model, it is just a model, and is not obligated to follow the path that or any other model lays down. So I will lurk in the back ground here, reading every post, checking out every link, and educating myself so I can make responsible decisions with the information provided me. What else is there to do? Just my 2cents
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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