recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??
--Lou
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anon
Unregistered
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Quote:
I was watching The Perfect Storm (for the 800th time) last night and I was actually picturing you trying to ride it out...
Glad you're taking the safe route! Peace.
Are you sure that wasn't "Forrest Gump" with the last shrimp boat left....... 
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waatcher
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anyone feel that new orleans is pretty much in the clear at this point?
best wishes going to anyone who is in the path
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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One of two things:
(1) More West
(2) More East
If west, just how far west, and if further east, who does this put back into play?
Are we talking New Orleans? As a CAT IV...unimaginable death and destruction.
Are we talking Big Bend?
Was going to go to bed early tonight as I'm flat out exhausted, but now I have to stick around for the 11...maybe the intermediate outlook will bear new fruit.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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cancun radar pic
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Redbird
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I will stay up till 11 to find out...........................we all need to do this.
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MikeC
Admin
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I was Really tempted to title the thread - East vs West, but TD#11 threw that out. 11's going to be interesting after too.
About the only thing I can suggest right now is to be careful staring at the satellite loops too long. And those along the coast should be prepared. has a lot of folks nervous around the Gulf.
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FunkyLamb
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Hey everyone. New to the board.
I was just curious if anyone is monitoring the RAMSDIS loops. It seems to me in the last few frames that the storm is trying to make a jog to the west again. Can anyone confirm this or are my eyes giveng out?
PS...Great Forum!
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FunkyLamb
I'm just a simple man trying to make my way in the universe.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It WON"T be more west unless something dramatic and unexpected happens...
And I don't think it will be dramatically right either, although I think it will be a bit more to the right...
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Jason Kelley
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Redbird
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Many of us have been in an extended tropical depression since and no relief in site with all that disturbed weather in the Atlantic.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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cat 4 or 5...but look at the tremendous size of this storm...!
with an eyewall that large, and wind speeds of 160 +
People here at the dealership are quiet and making phone calls...making plans..
I remember Opal...a cat 5 close to Mobile..then veered toward Pensacola, and came in as a cat 2...
However, Opal developed in the Bay of Campeche..and wasn't the size and overall strong structure this storm is...
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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my question would be "Whose track adjustment?"
If it is the , they shouldn't say that. If it is theirs, why not say it now?
Jason made a very good point that was touched on in a model discussion I read earlier. All of the morning runs were run when he was moving wnw, not the nnw that he is moving now.
I would make one more point: yesterday, when I was detailing the upper level environment, and when I expected it to change, I had figured only on a nw movement, not nnw, and neither did anyone else that I read (discussion-wise). That shows me 2 things:
1. Even though this is a large cat 5, it CAN be turned
2. the models may have underestimated the strength of that ULL and maybe overestimated a shade the strength of the high steering it.
A couple more things to stuff into the already-overflowing memory bank.
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LI Phil
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Since you're on the inside...maybe you can ascertain this talk of track shift...
and welcome aboard funky sheep!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Orlando
Unregistered
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Quote:
Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??
--Lou
What exactly does this mean? Who in their right mind would do reporting like this?
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
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it is moving slightly west now. its moving around 305 (nw)probably.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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I see a little jog west - I'm pretty sure it's just doing his normal land-swerving move. After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out.  As for TD 11, I agree that it is something to watch out for later on.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
Good Point, the above 'solution' is just a little joke for anyone out there who doesn't know. Sorry for any confusion.
Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:02 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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It is going to be a close call on whether an official landfall occurs on the tip of Cuba. I checked out all the past tracks back to 1886 at weatherunderground and could NOT find one cat. 5 to actually have its eye go over Cuba. That's 118 years. Hey LI Phil, the Red Sox have even won a few World Series since that time. I guess this storm is really history.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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spook
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It saw the tip of Cuba,he hates land,but once it the gulf ?
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LI Phil
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>>> After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out
Shagg, scoob here. Just so as not to confuse or alarm anyone. The "Florida Strait's solution" is NOT an option. I opined last evening that since has danced around every piece of land so far, with the exception of the poor bastids on Grenada, once he cleared Coobah, he'd have to go east and south of the Keys to miss land again.
Never rely on anything I say...not that any of you do anyway . This is an extremely serious situation, so listen to the ...
Can we make Stacy write EVERY discussion...no offense to the others...but he is da bomb!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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That trof in the Gulf is still quite sharp, and I figure is centered around 91 west, so I expect to continue just right of nw for a while longer. Also, the forecast track by the the other day at this point was maybe 50 miles east of where it is. I think that was actually very close, and in a difficult situation as well. I have to tip my hat (when I am wearing one) to the .
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