belleami
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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If the Cat changes to a 3 or 4, do the wind fields shrink?
Like right now, hurricane force winds extend to 100 mi. mol; so if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, how far do hurricane winds extend? Is there a formula?
Thax. Susie
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hang on!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I feel like a new person! Anyhow, is doing a similiar track to Camille, I hope not but this could make landfall as a strong CAT 4 and just maybe a borderline CAT 5. The Gulf Shores are known for these big hurricanes, why won't this one be another one?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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chuck325
Unregistered
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I live in P-cola and I know we are the middle line of this track. Even on fox news they show it going right over pensacola, but yet they send thier guys to NO which is on the very edge to milk out a story about the city sinking. GET REAL THE STORM ISNT HEADING TO NO. EVEN THOUGH I WISH IT WAS AND I KNOW FOX NEWS WISH IT WOULD FOR A BIGGER STORY BUT, ITS NOT ITS HEADING AROUND THE PENSACOLA AREA MOBILE THE FARTHEST WEST AND FT.WALTON THE FARTHES EAST. What is so hard to understand why they freak people out in places like NO. just for a story why us in pensacola just get left in te dark, with a false since of security....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I need to ask a personal favor from all of my friends on here. I have shared this the Mods, but I want you all to know this, and to help me out if possible.
My wife is in her 38th week of pregnancy with our 3rd child. We are taking our other two kids north to stay with their grandparents tomorrow, but her doctor has advised her not to travel, so she will be staying in a hotel next door to the local hospital. Compounding the problem is that the bridges here close at 55 mph sustained winds, so once it gets going, I am isolated from her and can't get to her if she begins going into labor.
I don't want to take this topic off onto a religious tangent, but if you are a religious person (which I am) I would ask for your prayers for me and my family at this time...if you are non-religious, then if you would keep us in your thoughts, I and my family would appreciate it.
Mods, sorry if this is too off-topic...feel free to delete if you feel it is necessary.
Thank you all in advance.
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Jason Kelley
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LindaG
Unregistered
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Here are models from the TPC showing inland wind fields broken down by Cat strength and forward speed for both Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast hits. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Hopefully the hurricane will miss you, you will be in my prayers. Good luck.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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You got if Jason! Sending heart-felt prayers your way!
Susie
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hang on!
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
If the Cat changes to a 3 or 4, do the wind fields shrink?
Like right now, hurricane force winds extend to 100 mi. mol; so if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, how far do hurricane winds extend? Is there a formula?
Thax. Susie
Generally, they will expand, at least for a while. Energy cannot be created or destroyed. If the winds in the center decrease, that extra energy has to go somewhere, so the wind fields often expand. did this. This is often compared to an ice skater who brings his/her arms in to spin faster, spreads them out to slow down.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My prayers are with you and your wife, Jason. I think having her next to the hospital is a very good idea. Considering the stage she is at, a hurricane induced birth is not out of the question. Good luck to both of you on that.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah, I some what agree on the WNW wobble/jog... what, the said he should begin a more northwesterly track in the 5 pm advisory..
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. HOWEVER... A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
Looks like later tonight might be now... obviously we need some more time and pixs to confirm... might be just a temporary jog as he's confirmed a dislike for land since Grenada... for the record my concern is longitude 89, if can't reach 89 degrees longitude then I feel the BIloxi area should be relatively OK, provided the NNE to NE turn as he approaches landfall plays out... time will tell
hmmmm, next pix, back to the north....
Jason, you have our prayers.... heck, my wife has a direct line to the Lord she's so religious.....
Edited by Frank P (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 AM)
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Jason - I have learned a lot reading your posts the last few days. Consider it done - prayers coming your way from Naples, Florida! I should say extra prayers because I've been sending them for everyone in 's path.
Karen
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deborah
Unregistered
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Jason, you don't know me, I'm just a lurker here w/no idea about weather stuff at all. I am a vet of both Charlie and ( I live in Seminole County). I wish you the best and although I'm not "religous", I will say a prayer for you and your family. Take care.
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chuck325
Unregistered
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If any buddy can answer this for me. Im very confused I look at alot of stites like this one and they have the track right at us in P-cola, but yet the probabilty chart says the center is more likey to go near the ms/al border than p-cola why is that???????And which track is more accurate the one from or the weather channel or even Accuweather thanks for responding>>
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kirdona
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Jason, may God be with you all. I can't imagine what a stressful time this must be for your family.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Jason-
1. You and your family will be in my prayers.
2. If the doctors don't want her to travel (which makes sence) but there is a possible cat IV-V hurricane coming, why doesn't her doctor check her into the hospital? I think you should explain your situation to him and I think he'll change his mind. Besides, how is a woman in labor expected to walk anywhere let alone in 150+ winds?
If it's a boy, are you going to name him ?
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Kelly
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Not necessarily. The windfield size does not have a direct connection to wind speed. Take Andrew as an example, very small storm with a tight windfield, but landfalling as a cat5. had a huge windfield but was not a major hurricane at landfall. has a huge windfield, and chances are that even if he loses strength down to a 2 or 3, the windfield will stay fairly large, it might shrink some, but we won't know that until about landfall unfortunately.
Bill
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tikibar
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
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consider it done!
keep the faith, brother!
I got an inside line to the "big" man upstairs 
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sullynole
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
I live in P-cola and I know we are the middle line of this track. Even on fox news they show it going right over pensacola, but yet they send thier guys to NO which is on the very edge to milk out a story about the city sinking. GET REAL THE STORM ISNT HEADING TO NO. EVEN THOUGH I WISH IT WAS AND I KNOW FOX NEWS WISH IT WOULD FOR A BIGGER STORY BUT, ITS NOT ITS HEADING AROUND THE PENSACOLA AREA MOBILE THE FARTHEST WEST AND FT.WALTON THE FARTHES EAST. What is so hard to understand why they freak people out in places like NO. just for a story why us in pensacola just get left in te dark, with a false since of security....
although the media does often blow things out of proportion (i.e Tampa and west coast)... don't focus only on the center of this track.
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John
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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She is being lifted up as I write this Jason. Many prayers from Ft. Lauderdale and Calvary Chapel.
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chuck325
Unregistered
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Do you believe Frank that P-cola is directly in the path or is it farther west??
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