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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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St. David
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26680 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:25 PM

just passing along infomation!

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spook
Unregistered




Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: St. David]
      #26682 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:29 PM

NO is worse case,I guess he figures safe than sorry!!

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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: St. David]
      #26683 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:29 PM

outflow on NW side of Ivan looks like its collapsing like last night

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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belleami
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
Cape San Blas AND St George Island [Re: St. David]
      #26684 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:31 PM

I have been reading, also <lucky me> watching Jason's forecasts.

Question:

St george Island, about what- 170 miles east of Pensacola (?) 70 mi. east of PC so we are getting ready. This is a skinny barrier island; we will most likely be evacuating... but

If Ivan does make landfall in the west-panhandle area, what kind of effects would St George Island feel? Would we even have any major/medium effects here?

PS- We reserved a room in Dothan!

Thanks for any replies/thoughts/opinions.

Susie

--------------------
hang on!


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Big E
Unregistered




Re: more central Florida track on crack [Re: Rasvar]
      #26685 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:31 PM

What is everything coming to ,if this is true about the weather forecasters saying come back at 11:00 p.m. there will be a big change in the forecast ,We'll if they need a draw that much to make a false statement like that then --we'll i just dont know!
I'm like most everyone else Jason shoots from the hip!!!
As long as iv'e been on this site ,he's been very straight forward and tell's things based on facts!!


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slwfreez
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #26686 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:31 PM

hello MikeC again..i never did hear back from you the last time.

(Post Partially removed...in case you haven't noticed Mike is busy keeping the site UP. We're going to go to lockdown mode...possibly sooner than later)

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 07:34 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: Thunder]
      #26687 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:32 PM

I used to watch SNL, I know someone from their band. I usually watch MAD tv but enough about me. Man Ivan keeps on it's NW course not changing. I am concerned about the flood from this storm, it should be called Ivan the Flood. The way the models are predicting it, that Ketucky area could get about to 20 inches of rain on that rain filled SOIl and the whole eastern seaboard gets loaded with rain.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: CentralFlorida]
      #26688 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:32 PM

the trof is still impacting it, and that may also be why the pressure rose a bit, even though fluctuations are to be expected.

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spoo
Unregistered




Re: more central Florida track on crack [Re: Big E]
      #26689 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:34 PM

It amazes me how the eye misses land!!!

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
But.... [Re: spoo]
      #26690 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:37 PM

Unless there is divine intervention, that was the last land near-miss for Ivan...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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mlamay
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Clearwater, FL
Re: more central Florida track on crack [Re: spoo]
      #26691 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:37 PM

watching TWC and they are predicting a N/NNE turn forcasting landfall near PC

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: slwfreez]
      #26692 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:37 PM

Email me mike@flhurricane.com -- with site issues there is a good chance I missed it. Could get ahold of you in Tampa too.


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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 21
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: slwfreez]
      #26693 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:41 PM

I guess not everyone can make a vaulable contribution to the site. Thanks to all that do.

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Clay85
Unregistered




Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: rickonboat]
      #26694 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:41 PM

Get your boat up in a canal or bayou somewhere. Yes, it's a large boat but if you can get it tied off on four corners you might have a chance at getting it to ride out the storm. We used to do this in the area I lived in. As long as everyone tied their boats securely; all were OK. I agree, get it out of the marina - you can't trust everyone to secure theirs and that will destroy yours.
God speed, my friend.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: But.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26695 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:43 PM

Maybe large storms like to avoid land because the frictional effects are stronger? your thoughts.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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spook
Unregistered




Re: But.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26696 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:43 PM

Jason i do not know the exact landfall,but I think PCB is in for a hell of a ride,hopefully it dies some,but I love the Gulfcoast from gulfshoes east,this storm can do a alot of damage,but the coast always seems to rebuild,

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Clay85
Unregistered




Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: MrSpock]
      #26697 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:46 PM

I notice the recon planes are still reporting lighting in the eyewall. This morning's discussion noted that lightening and hail have been reported and that this is unusual in a hurricane of this size. Can you explain why that is? Is it more common in smaller storms ?

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tikibar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
Ivan the bear [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26698 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:50 PM

Take an image of Ivan and super-impose it, centered, over the GOM.

WOW! That's BIG!


I quit watching loops yesterday when one did a little dance like a cat food "chow-chow-chow" commercial.


I thought I was losing it!

(glad someone else seen that too)


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
NHC 5 Day Forecast Error [Re: slwfreez]
      #26700 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:54 PM Attachment (285 downloads)

Ok.....I just spent some time looking at all the past Ivan advisories. I was curious to see how far off the NHC has been on their five day forecast. I began with the first advisory on September 2. The initial 5 day forecast location predicted Ivan to be at 14.0N, 60.0W at 2pm on Sept 7. I then compared that to the actual place Ivan was on 9/7 at 2pm (11.9N, 61.2W). I did this for each succeeding day, comparing the 2pm forecast and actual locations. I drew up a map comparing the actual path of Ivan to the NHC five-day forecast plots. The attachment link above is my crude hand-drawn map....but you still get the idea. The red line is Ivan's actual track. The black line is the interconnected 5-day forecast plots. As we already knew, the NHC 5 day forecast has been skewed way north of where Ivan actually tracked (sometimes over 200 miles off). Initially, the hurricane was moving faster than projected....but in the past 3 days, the NHC projection has outpaced Ivan. The intensity forecast was awful as well. The hurricane center vastly underestimated the strength of Ivan from the start. Each five day forecast was off by a minimum of 20 knots and as much as 65 knots underestimated.
So, while I whole-heartedly agree that the guys and gals at the NHC do an outstanding job, they have been truly at a loss when it came to predicting Ivan's course or intensity.

--Lou


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Odd Eye(s)? [Re: tikibar]
      #26701 - Mon Sep 13 2004 07:56 PM

Is it just me, or does it look like there are two overlapping eyes? I don't see it on other satellites, but it looks pretty strange on this view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

---Changed eyewalls to eyes---

Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 08:02 PM)


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