HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Hopefully the new model runs keep this sucker out of Mobile Bay and away from the Big Easy .
Will finish boarding up today not just the windows on the north and south side but the entire house.
Keep us and the others on the gulfcoast in your prayers over the next several days as we get impacted by a cat 4 monster.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Good post Steve, Im evacuating today and will be riding out the storm in Pensacola. Im very nervous and all local mets say they are certain a direct hit near Mobile or Pensacola is likely. They are saying as strong if not stronger then Fredric in 79'. I dunno, but Im done tracking the storm and staring at satellites, Im going to hunker down tonight and hope for the best. This is probably the most excited I've been about a storm since its my first, but its kind of offset by all the stress and fear. Its the wierdest feeling. You love it but you hate it. Oh well Good Luck everyone. I'll post whenever I get back to my house, and have power again. Cheers Keep safe guys.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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What about intesity. I don't want to have a false sense of security, but it appears may be weakening rapidly this morning. Could be an , but doesn't appear as such. Could weaken all the way to cat 2 alla , but I don't think I buy that. Regardless, as with , the size of the storm is what will matter. There will be damage well inland and well east of the center. Also, as I noted last night, the volume of trees in the Gulf states versus down in Florida will allow for insane power outages. We are being warned up here in Bham to prepare for power outages that could last days.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Not so sure about weakening. On this view, looks like the western eyewall is rebuilding:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...amp;overlay=off
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Unfourtanetly, I dont suspect its rapid weakening. Probably . The gulf isnt that hostile and isnt suspected to be. The water temps drop off though. Near Cuba the water temps are near 90. The gulf only mid 80's. My local met said that would allow to weaken below Cat 5 but most likely maintain Cat 3 or 4 intensity. Oh well, Lets hope maybe it does weaken more but I get the idea its just not going to weaken to much. 
Talk to ya'll when I get back home which hopefully will be Friday or Saturday. Cheers
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Last recon had pressure all the way up to 930. That is pretty drastic. I agree that it is probably , but don't know that it will recover as well from this one.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I have seen some posts recently in the forum where folks were wishcasting the storm to head one way or another. Mike et al, I hope you disallow those kind of posts in the future as nobody should be wishing death and destruction on fellow human beings.
As for , he sure has seemed to make a quick northerly jaunt. Almost scary. Seems to me the track might be too far west?? Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?
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Tallahassee
Unregistered
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My 15 yr. old son is scheduled to fly out from Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon (going to Detroit for Ryder Cup) and will fly back Friday afternoon. Does anyone have any thoughts on how safe, or unsafe these plans may be?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Good post Steve, Im evacuating today and will be riding out the storm in Pensacola. Im very nervous and all local mets say they are certain a direct hit near Mobile or Pensacola is likely. They are saying as strong if not stronger then Fredric in 79'. I dunno, but Im done tracking the storm and staring at satellites, Im going to hunker down tonight and hope for the best. This is probably the most excited I've been about a storm since its my first, but its kind of offset by all the stress and fear. Its the wierdest feeling. You love it but you hate it. Oh well Good Luck everyone. I'll post whenever I get back to my house, and have power again. Cheers Keep safe guys.
I mean no offense, and I'm certainly not trying to raise the alarm, but this is probably the wrong storm to hunker down for unless you're well clear of the eye. There's a reason the Saffir-Simpson scale stops at cat 5.
Anything greater than 155 mph will definitely demolish things with great impunity. 156mph or 200mph make little difference - the 200mph winds will just accomplish their destruction more rapidly.
Be safe.
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mlamay
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Clearwater, FL
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I don't think anybody is safe from theis storm until it passes your lattitude, besides its' huge we are expecting 50mph gusts and storm surge and we're over 300mi away from the center of the storm
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Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I have seen some posts recently in the forum where folks were wishcasting the storm to head one way or another. Mike et al, I hope you disallow those kind of posts in the future as nobody should be wishing death and destruction on fellow human beings.
As for , he sure has seemed to make a quick northerly jaunt. Almost scary. Seems to me the track might be too far west?? Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?
"Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?" right after a Wishcasting comment  . To answer, no Tampa isn't out yet, but it's getting less likely by the hour.
We are fairly leaniant on comments here, athough if you say "ITS COMING RIGHT FOR US!" without an explanation why or with words like URGENT! etc be prepared to get deleted/edited. You don't have to be right.
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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I am going to predict landfall around Mobile, AL as a 115mph Cat 3 hurricane. will soon start entraining dry air into its circulation, which will cause the weakening. It does not appear that shear will be too significant, therefore I am maintaining Cat 3 rather than weakening it further.
God Bless,
Ronn
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saints63213
Unregistered
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/140838.shtml?
22.6n 86.0 w
center relocated.
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Nobody important
Unregistered
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Hope this lightens up your day a little!......topic: Hurricane Preparations:
You all should be aware of hurricane preparations, but in case you need a refresher course: We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any minute now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.
(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.
Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."
Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:
STEP 1: Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2: Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3: Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida. We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:
HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Wisconsin
Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.
SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and
disadvantages:
Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.
Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.
Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc... you should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.
EVACUATION ROUTE:
If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.
HURRICANE SUPPLIES:
If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of cat food. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:
23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.
Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
Good luck and remember: It's great living in Paradise. 
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
At some point in time, you simply have to trust the and their expertise with these storms.
Look, we got hit with two storms this season which is an Extreme Rarity.
Most hurricanes that enter the gulf go NW then N and do NOT make a hard NE turn into the peninsula of Florida.
We are all sufering from post hurricane stress and think every storm is at our doorstep.
This one is the upper gulf coasts storm.
If you read my earlier posts, you would see that I have no problem going with the forecasts. I think they are a little off, but still the best we have. That being said, you are wrong when you say hurricanes don't make hard rights, did. Elena turned completely around and went the other way. So...I will never be convinced that just because the says it's going one way, we should blindly trust that and not pay attention to the storm. It is still well south of us, and is still too fresh.
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JackLove
Unregistered
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Quote:
My 15 yr. old son is scheduled to fly out from Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon (going to Detroit for Ryder Cup) and will fly back Friday afternoon. Does anyone have any thoughts on how safe, or unsafe these plans may be?
Safety speculation is best left up to the airline in question, but it's a pretty good bet the carrier won't fly if it feels the local conditions are unsafe.
The greatest risk to your travelling son is that TLH will be closed by Friday, when is predicted to be close to, if not on top of, the Gulf Coast. He might have to spend a few extra days in DET before normal traffic resumes. Plan accordingly!
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carolt_melbourne
Unregistered
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Not to get too off-topic, but I was watching the Canaveral 20-mile buoy (41009) during . The last prediction I saw at Virtualbuoy, before I lost power, was for 36'. It only made it to 27' early that Sunday morning ... just before it came loose and drifted out to sea. (they got it back) Lesson being - when the buoy you're watching breaks its mooring, you know you're in trouble.
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mlamay
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Clearwater, FL
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You are completely right. Anything could happen. I still have a bad feeling about this storm. I am not wishcasting, I am being prepared.
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Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
We are being warned up here in Bham to prepare for power outages that could last days.
I lived in B'ham for several years before we moved down here. Heck, power used to go out in Mountain Brook for days from severe thunderstorms, can't even imagine what this would do.
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anonymous
Unregistered
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According to Accuweather, is expected to start moving more westerly soon. The trough is quickly pulling out to the north and east, the high pressure over Texas is moving west, and the high to east does not seem to moving any further east.
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