tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Just saw the update. Dr. Lyons said that the "last few frames" have been almost due north. He also said it was following the edge of that ridge in the western GOM and they expect it to take that turn to the east shortly before landfall. He indicated the cirrus clouds that were moving off towards the east ahead of .
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mr. Spock I tend to agree. T#s for 1745 were 5.5/6.5 (a full point spread...hmmm)...looks like it will just miss the mark
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to s path
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yeah, you're right. Wobbles. Wiggles. Westerlies.
They're all driving me nuts. Now I guess I could see how they would keep it right where it is...no changes.
I'll check back in at 5.
Life tends to interrupt hurricanes.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Gee thanks....... I'm less than thrilled. Looks like I'm going to be riding it out here in west Mobile....... and praying it jogs to the east a little ! I wanted to leave, but hubby used the "for better or worse till death do us part" guilt trip.  Windows are boarded up, hurricane stuff is ready, and I'm hoping for a direct hot line to God. I'm hoping to fly to Maryland this weekend; can't stand the thought of 2 or 3 weeks with no electricity !!
Has anyone seen an updated recon report yet ???
Keep us in your prayers y'all !!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to s path
This graph from there shows it quite well... (The buoy is linked in the Event Related links in the main article)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42003&uom=E
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GENIE
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
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25.6 wave height at bouy 42003. pressure falling rapidly. Wind gust to 60kts. In case some have not checked lately.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Speaking of buoy obs in the GOM. Here is the page from the NDBC with sites near where will pass.
NDBC Sites
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Check the Surf
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the is going to be horrifyingly off
Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Colleen, I don't have cable, and I feel like I'm watching the weather channel. Thanks for your posts! I saw enuf of them when I was up in Atlanta. BTW, I hope no one is traveling through ATL on Friday!
Well, we're definitely within the 48-hr window for anyone from NO to PCB. I think still has a good handle on - CAT 3, Thursday morning, around Biloxi. Yet, I'm still wondering if will clear 88 W with strength of shear and trof to the W? Any thoughts?
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I've got most everything done that I'm going to do. That consisted of bringing in about 10 bikes, some toys, scooters, balls, hoses and such. I'd estimate that 75-80% of my neighborhood has evacuated. I haven't seen anything taken this seriously since Georges, so obviously in Old Metairie, the folks did what the felt they needed to. I have a theory (that I think holds) that whenever there is a recent & devastating storm, people think twice about staying. (flooding) then the mass evacuation for Georges, Alex/Charley/Frances and . I'm pretty excited about . I don't know what it has in store for me, but I'm ready for the action. Today's been kind of weird. It's a mixed sky right now with a nice breeze around 12-15 gusting to 18-20 from time to time - mostly out of the E and ENE. The temperature is in the mid 80's. That really shows how big is. Often when a compact storm is 250 miles away, the weather can be hot and still (calm before the storm stuff). But that's not the feel today. My expectations are a cross between what New Orleans got from Florence (88 I think), Andrew (92) and Georges (98). Put together, that's probably a few inches of rain (more with a landfall closer to me), some sustained winds in the 30's and 40's with some gusts into the 50's and 60's, blown transformers, downed limbs and scattered power and cable outages - you know, a good beer drinking partying kind of storm. I could be wrong (and I hope I'm not, heh) but I'm looking forward to the ride. The traffic has been horrendous in the city as everyone hit the highways this morning. My kids are en route to Memphis, and my wife is sleeping and should be heading up there later this evening after she gets some sleep. I've gotten a few "Woooo" calls from old hurricane buddies who wanted to know my excitement level amidst all the freaking going on. I guess that means people to party with over the next few days 
The last several frames show alternating N and NNW movements - I'd guess the storm was averaging 340ish in the short term after a westerly jog this morning. Without doing the math, seems to be stair-stepping around 320-330 (NN+W essentially) . Prayers and well wishes to everyone with property, peeps, ties or whatever from lower Plaquemines Parish, LA to Panama City. Hopefully the just west of Mobile scenario doesn't pan out. That's similar to our doomsday of a storm riding toward the WNW south of the city (as JB noted today - the one that makes N.O. the Gulf via Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borne. We'll see that again someday, but not this time.
A JB quick note on Jeanne. In his backing pattern theory, Jeanne (if she encouters a ridge building in behind as some of the models are now alluding to) becomes a potential player for the Western Gulf by 3-6 degrees west of 's landfall. That theory requires her to wait for the mess to clear and then head on W (he had it between FL and Cuba, but that was just a telestrator drawing and wasn't emphasized as much as the idea that it could mirror the Isidore-Lili 1-2 Gulf Cat 4's from 2002 based on uncannily similar water temperature profiles.
I'll check in from time to time. Good luck to all and a shout out to Frank P. My bet is by the time he's back online, he rates in the Top 3 as measured by the seawall and Beach Blvd.
Woohoo!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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First, the trough that was near Memphis the other day, is lifting out nicely, but it almost seems as if a small piece broke off into the Gulf, which was responsible for the dry air, and the fact that it never curved back to the NW.
Second, a strong upper level disturbance just crossed through Salt Lake City, and a strong trough is moving into the Rockies. This will be the next system to help draw up the storm I believe.
There is also strong jet energy rounding the base of that trough.
I can't rule out the possibilty it curls back towards the NW a little due to the piece of energy in the Gulf, but I don't think it will be a major move. The arguement against that is that it appears to be moving north on the last few frames, which wouldn't be expected in this scenario. The next trough seems to be coming in pretty quickly as well.
I am concerned about post-landfall also, as it may get stuck in the Appalachians, and a strong SE upslope flow is not needed in the already-flood-ravaged areas. The puts out almost 4" of rain where I am in NJ, and I won't be close to it.
I hope this isn't another Allison, which was not much of a storm, but got stuck of Ga. and wreaked all kinds of flooding havoc. It also got stuck.
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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I can verify Salt lake had a front pass through- it's 64 degrees here now!
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Quote:
Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the is going to be horrifyingly off
Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0
Mark,
I was thinking the same thing............ 
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
This will show what you felt.......
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!
I'm a little more than 30 miles north of Dauphin Island. (Well north of I-10, near Mobile Airport) The house (brick) withstood Frederic and others since, but the three huge oak trees surrounding my house weren't quite so large then ! No chance of flooding here, so I'm just praying for the trees to stay up and the roof to stay down. My son and his family were smart enough to be on their way to Montgomery this afternoon, and then Tennessee in the morning.
I'll try to keep y'all posted (and I'm sure rickNOTonaboat will as well !) tomorrow when things start getting ugly. I have about 4 hours of battery back up for the 'puter, but not sure how long the cable modem will be working though. 
PLEASE keep the sight up guys -- I'm countin' on ya !!
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Here's a link to the whole gulf waves. Very interesting the waves around the eye
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Please note, that reference to the being horrifyingly off was not an effort to disparage their efforts, they're doing their best, and they're doing a heck of a lot better than anyone else. it's just that this storm has been an unpredictable storm, even for a hurricane. And I'm just a bit fearful that the chaos of the atmosphere won't be properly understood in this case and the will miss predict with... horrifying consequences....
I think the rocks, just I also realize they're not perfect
Mark
Go Falcons... And Take the Braves with you! (Old Falcons Cheer)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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MBFly...
Check your PMs (note that that is a SMALL s)...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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