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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained
      #27428 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 PM

11:30AM Update
Jeanne is nearing Hurricane strength. Track now takes it closer to the eastern Bahamas.

Ivan is right now on a very slow weakening trend, it's eyewall is still solid, so I don't think any rapid weakening will happen. It's still over warmer waters, so the only other negative effects are shear and dry air. It will probably weaken a little more, but still remain a cat 3, it does, however have a good chance to maintain its current strength.




7AM Update
Ivan is still a category 4 this morning, although the pressure is risen. Some dry air distruption happened last night which has weakened it a bit, but the center is holding together so it may still have time to fluctuate (up and down) before it makes landfall overnight tonight into Thursday)



The motion right now is sure to make folks nervous, but the forecast track has it moving a bit more northeast, but that entire area is well within the cone. The official track still has it crossing at or just west of Mobile, Alabama.
Original Update
Hurricane Ivan remains a Category 4 Hurricane, 140MPH winds, and about to move over much warmer warm current eddys then mover shallower water to get cooler. Timeline would be overnight tomorrow, with conditions getting worse toward the afternoon into the evening. Everyone in the warning area should be prepared for this tomorrow.

After it makes landfall it'll move up into Northern Georgia, Tennessee, and Western North Carolina and likely sit for a day or so, being a huge rain event there.



Jeanne remains at 60MPH winds, with the center somewhat moving out from the convection. Jeanne is moving west northwest and would eventually wind up near the Eastern Bahamas.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay/Ruskin,FL (West Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop


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Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: MikeC]
      #27443 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:26 PM

Have heard this said before time and time again but think this time its for real that we are watching a historical hurricane we will remember for years to come about to make landfall on the central Gulf.

Easy to look at charts, sats and loops and think Ivan will move nne or even ne just before landfall. The case for such a track is there however sometimes you have to throw the climo and the forecasted tracks out the window a bit and look at the particular cane involved. Something About Ivan wants to go west.. always. If there is any way this storm can find a westward component in its movement it will find a way. Hard to ignore millions of dollars of money invested in models and lord only knows what the FSU superensemble has to say (seems only Avilla likes to talk) but in the end..very soon we will see where he goes.

And... where he goes directly affects Jeanne. She looks better than any tropical storm that close to Ivan should. The views of the two of them sitting on the screen like Big Daddy and Little Miss are entrancing to those of us that love to watch tropical weather.

Great discussion here tonight. Not much to add. Just adding my two cents... hope everyone is right and this isn't a worst case scenario for NOLA. People I trust have been saying Mobile for over a week.

Is there a good scenario here?

Thanks for keeping this site going.. Bobbi

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Weather Tracker Tool [Re: LoisCane]
      #27445 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 PM

There is a fun weather tracking tool available on the web at www.orlandoweather.com. Then, under Hurricane Central/Interactive, select Storm Tracker. You can watch an animation of the storms from this year, last year, and select historical storms in motion and stack their tracking maps on top of each other. Charley and Ivan were on the same track until Cuba and this site demonstrates that very nicely.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: LoisCane]
      #27446 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:35 PM

Bobbi -- there's no good scenario here, I'm afraid. The only scenario that would be good is the Roxanne 1995 scenario, but I can't see that happening well offshore.

The FSU Superensemble is reasonably in line with much of the rest of the model guidance, as noted by the NHC, and is more or less what the NHC official track is based upon.

Just a note on the warm eddy referenced in the thread starter...it is moreso an impact on the depth of the warm waters as opposed to warmer water. Much of the water over the central Gulf is in the mid 80s, +/- a degree or so from 86F. However, the depth of this warm water is important in hurricane intensification, as recent studies have shown. In the region where the storm is now and especially close to shore, the depth is not very deep...~100ft, if that in some places. However, near the warm eddy, waters under the surface are warm to much greater depths, ~150-250ft. In regions further to the west, they are a bit deeper than that.

While a few tens to a hundred feet may not seem significant, it really is in terms of a storm maintaining intensity (or weakening/strengthening). It's but one of many factors into intensity forecasting, but will play a key role here.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: LoisCane]
      #27447 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:35 PM

Thanks for the new thread, Mike. As always, you're doing an outstanding job keeping the site up...

Bobbi, great post...I hope I am wrong...I REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG, but I have a sick feeling this is one we'll be talking about for YEARS to come.

Everybody...pray against that...

Finally, I'm calling on Rabbit to post that this will dissipate...or at least ramp down.

We need that Rabbit voodoo hex more than ever now...

Failing that...everyone needs to be safe (duh). Ivan is about to move over 86 degree waters (ferchrissake)...there's no way he's dissapating anytime soon, but maybe closer to land...pray

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Clark]
      #27448 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:38 PM

I am amazed still at the amount of water this thing is pushing along with it...

Does anyone here have a SLOSH program and can run a Cat4 at Mobile Bay for New Orleans?


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BabyCat]
      #27449 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:41 PM

Check the end of last thread Phil posted a few sites that were very good. They are on the last page.

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Clark]
      #27450 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 PM

Just to note about the "warm eddy".... saw a lot about that eddy and its possible "play" with Ivan today.... but I first learned about this from our own JK... seems to be about a week ago give or take. Way to go and thanks JK!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BabyCat]
      #27451 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 PM

infantkitten,

I'm going to get that info one day, but for now:

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/products/alabama/htm/hssra.htm

http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/stormmap/surgeinfo.htm

hope that helps.


I'm so tired I can't even bother to use the URL feature...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Lisa NC]
      #27452 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 PM Attachment (378 downloads)

I need someone with Rogue Wave experience to look at this link.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/buoy/buoy.cgi?992440
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/SYS.shtml
If that's what I think it is somebody in deep trouble.
Cat 4 in Mobile. Hmmm, had a Cat 3 few years back that sucked/blew the water out of Mobile Bay, Could happen to Lake Ponchatrain just as easy.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Clark]
      #27453 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 PM

Any hope of this storm weakening before landfall like they said yesterday? To me, it seems like that idea is not valid anymore! Warm eddies....lessening shear at landfall....hmm historic storm indeed. Folks if you are in the path of this storm and don't feel 100% comfortable about your surroundings...either go more inland or go to a shelter for at least the worst of it...ask the folks that survived Andrew about how they felt when their windows and concrete walls were caving in around them and their shutters were being ripped off the house. This is not to alarm anyone just to insert some realty...although you will most likely survive the storm....do you or your family want to suffer from PTSD (Post Traumtic Stress Disorder) afterwards?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27454 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:54 PM

Justin -- I hate to pull out Andrew as a comparable, but there is no skirting the damage that it caused in Miami. The graphics and stories out of there, even to this day, are frightening and amazing.

While Ivan is not as tight and compact -- and thankfully as strong -- as Andrew, the damage will be intense and spread out over a larger area. There is a chance at some weakening due to shallower waters and increasing dry air, but this storm has defied those predictions before. Strengthening probably won't happen, though. For everyone's sake, this thing needs to spin down.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: danielw]
      #27457 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:01 AM

Appreciate everyone's comments tonight, great advice as usual... I have my bags packed and on standby status... will check one final time at 6:00 am on Ivan's track and intensity.... sure am leaning towards leaving but also praying for that n to ne turn... spaghetti model makes me sick... hard to believe that I have the possibility of getting a second "100" year hurricane in just 35 years... god, I feel like a 100 year old right now anyway...

This will be my last post for tonight.... but will monitor closely everyone's thoughts and analysis....

To everyone in harms way.... good luck and godspeed....To everyone else, have a great day tomorrow and I know you will be thinking of us...

Sad, a plethora of lives will be devistated during the next 24-36 hours...

Frank P


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Frank P]
      #27458 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:06 AM

Good luck Frank P....just looked at a map...damn Biloxi sure is close to the Mobile area...about 40-60 miles away...too close for me..assuming the eye goes east of you into that area. Goodnight eveyone...

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ivan options [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27459 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:06 AM

lemme see... big bend idea.. done for. the grouped modeling is saying central gulf coast.. emphasis on alabama's small coastline. if it goes left it gets the biloxi-pascagoula area.. right and pensacola takes it on the nose. no good options here.. save weakening. high heat content SSTs don't always affect mature hurricanes very much.. take Frances rolling over the gulfstream earlier this month and not reintensifying before hitting florida. Ivan is in a light shear/light subsidence environment.. warm eddy or no i'm thinking it stays where it is at worst and weakens down to a 105-110kt storm at best. world of difference between a 3 and a 4. don't see a 2 happening.. always possible, but don't see it. so, Ivan breaks billions of dollars worth of real estate at the coast. then it goes inland.. and modeling is going cuckoo with it from there. the official may say a deceleration over the cumberland plateau, but the trend recently has been for most every model to turn the storm southerly, on a backtrack path as it decays. being september i wouldn't expect this scenario to unfold (usually a summer tropical storm like allison of 2001 or alberto of 1994). but here we are at the precipice of fall and that's what Ivan will probably do. parts of the south are in for a massive flooding event.
oh yeah, then there's jeanne. the forecast track takes it near the bahamas.. as a hurricane (with the long range conservatism evident).. which translates to probably a strong hurricane in the bahamas next week. past the official forecast period, ridging near the east coast is progged to strengthen.. the storm should bend left and hit the southeast coast later next week. Frances and gaston have recently churned the waters there, but the upwelling and mixing effects are largely dissipated at this point.. jeanne is poised to be a present follow-on threat.
SOI went negative, and the eastpac action should continue to mirror atlantic development (jeanne may be the response to isis).. with javier active a karl may well appear next week. par for the course this year, it seems.
good luck buckling down or getting out if you're on the middle gulf coast. i'm hoping for the best... prayers are as much as i can offer.
HF 0405z15september

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 12:17 AM)


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way...ILM
Unregistered




busting through the dry air [Re: MikeC]
      #27460 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:07 AM

hi,

i am wondering what the effect will be on Ivans path when
it bust through the dry air to it's west and meets up with the ridge (?) on the other side. will the ridge will not allow any further west movement. is this correct?

thx for the board and education


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Frank P]
      #27461 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:08 AM

Back at you Frank P. Take Care and hang in there.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27462 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:08 AM

Buoy 42003 appears to still be with us, at 9:50 CDT it reported waves at 35.8 ft and winds at 54.4 kts gust to 71.9 kts. Let's see if it makes its 10:50 CDT report.

36 ft waves? I can't even imagine what that would be like.

Bill


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: busting through the dry air [Re: way...ILM]
      #27463 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:13 AM

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/Wcontrol/miss.htm

Thanks for the Army Corp idea, Phil.
I did find this link that is from them, real-time gages along the Mississippi River.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BillD]
      #27464 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:14 AM

Frank P.

God Speed and stay safe.

I can well imagine your thoughts as Ivan approaches. There's a world of difference in tracking a storm that is hitting some place els and one that is aiming right at you. I learned that feeling this year with Charley and Frances.

Look forward to your future posts and insights.


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