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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BillD]
      #27465 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:17 AM

I looked at the surge graph earlier... the water is amazing. I am probably reading it wrong but at one point it looked to be 46ft.
It was on the east - north quadrant
But again, I could have been been reading it incorrectly.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BabyCat]
      #27466 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:23 AM

I could be (very) wrong, but I don't beleive it's possible in the US for a storm surge to exceed say 35+ feet, even in a major CAT V. Still, surge coupled with massive wave heights could be catastrophic...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BillD]
      #27467 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:25 AM

Quote:

Buoy 42003 appears to still be with us, at 9:50 CDT it reported waves at 35.8 ft and winds at 54.4 kts gust to 71.9 kts. Let's see if it makes its 10:50 CDT report.






Buoy data at 10:50 CDT shows the pressure rising... winds from ESE at 48.6 kts... center has likely moved on past the buoy...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Allison


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bsnyder
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
A question about the weather inland [Re: BabyCat]
      #27468 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:26 AM

Sitting here in Tampa, thankful that Ivan has decided not to pay us a visit, and praying for the folks in the northern Gulf coast states....be safe, please!!!

And now I'm worrying about Ivan's inland track and what the weather will likely be like on Saturday/Sunday. My parents are suppose to fly into Atlanta-Hartsfield on Saturday, from Germany, and drive to their home in the western NC mountains. On the current track, is it possible their flight will get diverted, or that the Atlanta airport will close?

Sure looks like those are possibilities, and that if they do make it into Atlanta that they should head south, to Tampa, rather than north into what could be some really nasty weather on Saturday evening and Sunday.

Any thoughts? I'm hoping they'll call sometime before Saturday so I can advise them. They probably have no idea right now that there's a hurricane.
the storm will have weakened below tropical storm strength by saturday. it will be raining itself out over the southern appalachians at the time.. so your folks will be contending with flood-type effects if anything. hartsfield may have delays due to inclement weather, but i don't think it will close down. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 10:56 AM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: BillD]
      #27469 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:26 AM

First, LI Phil has done a great job in here, and is understandably exhausted. He has pleaded for everyone to go to safer areas a lot, but asked me to post on the seriousness of this.

The new models are in, and it looks like there is little track change, and the 6z are run off of the 0z.
This may go a shade west of Mobile Bay, but the exact location may matter little. 500 miles wide of land will see tropical storm force winds, just on the coast, 210 miles hurricane force winds. Storm surge will be incredible. 10" of rain or more is likely in spots, as well as tornadoes in the right side. Inland areas will be hard-hit as well, as it will remain a hurricane for quite a while.
The dillemma of this post is, if I scare people, and they come through unscathed, I'll be an alarmist, if I don't and something happens, that would be a tragedy. I would rather people anywhere near the threat area, and even those inland, to play it as cautious as possible, because you can put a value on a house, but not a human life.

All of us in here are concerned, and scared for those in the path. We have seen the pictures of Camille, the video from Grenada, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.
Everyone should rely on their LOCAL officials for the proper action to take, I can''t tell anyone what that proper action is. Whatever happens, PLEASE don't go out in it, don't try to cross flooded roads, and be careful of downed power lines.
If there is any doubt at all, play it safe.
We all "hoped" it would weaken, "wished" it would change, but it is almost here now. The better people to write this would be those who live in Florida.
Again, your local officials know what's best, lean on them.

God Bless all those in Ivan's path, may everyone be safe.
These once in a lifetime events are happening too often, I don't want to see anyone become a statistic.

added note:
Everyone affected, please post when you can, so we know you all are all right. Let's all remember everyone in their prayers, and let's not forget Jason's wife, who is close to delivering.

Edited by MrSpock (Wed Sep 15 2004 12:35 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Warm eddies [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27471 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:28 AM

Would not put my faith in a warm eddy to save you from the wrath of a storm.

Watch carefully tomorrow and hope it doesn't take anyone by surprise that thinks its going elsewhere down the coast.

Question... when was the last time dauphin island was under water in a storm surge. Know it happened years and years back.

thanks

warm eddy salvation? no.. strengthen the storm if anything. the last time dauphin was really ripped up was frederic in '79. lesser effects since with elena in '85 and georges in '98. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 10:59 AM)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BillD]
      #27472 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:30 AM

Buoy 42003 report at 10:50 PM CDT:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 48.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 60.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.36 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )

Buoy 42001 report:

Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 28.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

I am still amazed at the wave height.

Bill


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: BillD]
      #27473 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:41 AM

After having no power for 5-6 days I learned a few things that really helped. :

Things that are handy when you lose power for awhile
(most of these items were found at Wal-Mart)

1. an inverter~(costs about $15-$25) It goes in your car lighter and converts to an electrical outlet. It will re-charge your cell phone, a cordless drill, laptop computer, a small fan or most importantly for parents, a small t.v. We have a t.v. that has a combo VCR so when the cable went out the kids still could watch movies. It is most comfortable watching it while actually sitting in the car with the a.c. on. You can get an extension cord though and watch in the house. NOTE: Be sure to get one that has an automatic cut off switch so that you do not drain your car battery. If you have two cars get two converters it is well worth it! My husbands van ran the t.v mine ran the fan. My husband was much braver than I was and kept the van off while we ran the t.v. He never had a single thing happen to the battery. Just be sure you have a full tank of gas that is the only draw back of using the inverter for long periods with the car on.

2. Hand held battery operated fan/water bottle. Wal-Mart $4.00. We used that thing all the time especially at night to fall asleep. If you are lucky enough to have ice, you can take a small bowl filled with ice water and put it in front of the fan as it blows on you. It cools the air down a bit. (we did this for patients in the hospital after Andrew.)

3. Helpful advice: When storing ice, KEEP IT IN THE FREEZER!
I had about 8 bags going into the storm. During the storm as soon as I lost power I took out about 5 bags and put them all in coolers. After the third or fourth day there was still ice in the freezer and NONE in the coolers. A good way to preserve ice is to wrap all the bags together first in newspaper and then a towel. Take one bag out at a time when needed and leave the rest together in the wrapped bundle.

4. Home Depot has portable propane grills for $15. They still had lots when we were getting ready for Ivan so there may be some left. They run off the small bottles of propane. Publix had one time charcoal grills for $5.00. They will grill something for about 30 minutes.

5. Be sure you have extra tarp and duct tape in case there are needed repairs.

6. Get a small inflatable pool if you don't have one built in the ground. We lost power but not water so the kids and I went in it often to cool off.

7. Wal-mart also has battery operated radios for $5.00. They are the kind with earphones~ also good for the kids and to keep abreast of the news.

8. Check camping stores if your local Walmart is out of supplies. There are lots of useful items there like real propane lanterns, battery operated coffee pots, even portable toilets for areas that have a problem with sewage backing up. Martin and St. Lucie counties in Florida both needed electricity to power their lift stations. If the lift stations can't operate there is no water pressure...hence the sewage back up.

9. If you live alone or know someone who does, 7-11 and various convenience stores have emergency cell phones. You pay a one time fee (not sure how much) and you have a month of minutes. You can buy more minutes later if necessary. We lost both phones for awhile but the cell phone came back for most people much sooner than the land lines did.

10. Tap lights! They are at Dollar Tree down here. 2 for $1.00. Not sure if the Dollar stores are everywhere but these things are very useful! Its hard to find D batteries after the storm and the tap lights use AA. (So do the battery fans I mentioned above) I had no problem finding AA batteries anytime I needed them.

11. An air cooler. Wal-mart~$7.00-$13.00. You can attach some to your hose and some are portable. You put cold water in its container then use this pump thing (kinda like a keg) and it lightly mists you. They say it cools the air temp up to 25 degrees. Its good for outside use. Especially the ones that are attached to the hose. You sit under this very light mist and it feels a little like a.c. especially with a breeze. (Don't worry...there will be a breeze!) It's the same premise as those big air misters you see at Universal Studios.

12. Don't forget a manual can opener!

13. If the storm is headed your way now, go turn your freezer and fridge to their coldest settings. Seriously stop reading this for a second and do it. Turn your a.c. down too. Try not to open any doors when you lose power. My kids were in and out all the time so it was useless for us but I was amazed at how much cooler my moms house was after 3 days. By keeping the doors and windows closed she was able to keep some of the cool NON HUMID air inside. Once the humidity creeps in its ten times more miserable.

14. If power is out for more than 2 days have a neighborhood bbq with all the frozen meat that is now defrosting. Its a great way to make new friends. These are the people you will need to be friends with too. Especially when they get power back and you don't!

If anyone has any other suggestions please feel free to add to this list.
kent, my man! great suggestions here, definitely things to consider for a hurricane kit or other aftermath amenities/plans. not often that such useful info gets posted in quantity on the main board.. thanks for extending it. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 11:03 AM)


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: BillD]
      #27474 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:43 AM

Also this bouy south of Mobile. Waves are growing about 3 every 2 hours. There are getting closer to shore. Everyone be safe.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Lisa NC]
      #27475 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:50 AM

Is it just me or would this give us in South AL a little bit of hope that we want get a direct hit

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: Lisa NC]
      #27476 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:51 AM

Everyone on the whole CHFC "FAMILY" boards...

Thanks for all your kind words...I need to go to sleep now...I am trying (if I can work out some personal stuff) to be aboard ALL NIGHT tomorrow, when the fecal matter will really strike the air mover.

LISTEN to MR SPOCK, HANKFRANK, JASON (IF HE CAN SPARE ONE MINUTE) CLARK, EVEN SCOTSVB AND RABBIT...these gentlemen are experts and can guide you if you need help...In the long term (not too long) feel free to PM me with requests...

HF is on board for a time, I believe as are Coop Mike & John...Ed is probably lurking so...this is a learning and hopefully providing board...throw it out there...

OK Im outta here till (I would say tomoorow..but it's already tomorrow...) be smart, be safe, and just don't ask "I live in Destin, will I get tidal waves?" because right now we just don't know..Peace...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: MrSpock]
      #27477 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:51 AM

Having been through four majors in my lifetime (and a few others) it really comes down to a few simple statements.

Pay attention to what your local emergency offiicials say. If they tell you to leave (as in mandatory evacuations) then leave.

You don't have to go 1000 miles away, just go where it is safe. Don't get stuck on an interstate somewhere in the middle of the hurricane trying to get to the "ideal" place. Once clear of storm surge danger areas, just look for a safe place, shelter, hotel, or a friends house.

Storm surge is a killer, don't stay where you are vulnerable. No structure will protect you if it is underwater.

If you're going to ride it out, do so in an interior room, no windows. If it gets really bad, pull a mattress from a bed and put it over your heads and hunker down on the floor. A lot of people survived Andrew using this simple tactic, even as their houses disintegrated around them.

We all hope that Ivan will wind down before landfall, but Frances did and still made one heck of a mess of the east coast of Florida.

Be safe and use your head, don't panic.

Bill


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re:Faster Movement N [Re: LoisCane]
      #27478 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:53 AM

The weather forecaster here in Biloxi moved up the timetable for landfall about six hrs.I had heard earlier today 7:00> 10:00 Thursday morning.Now that tells me that maybe the forward speed increase was not anticpated maybe and that what was expected to steer Ivan E might come later.Now MrSpock it might not mean alot to you there is a big difference to me 50 in miles E is tolerable to 50 miles W the wind howls long and hard.The NHC has been right of the given track for awhile Ivan is moving hard and strong.The ridge is there.The E deflection is hard to see right now.Maybe like Georges it's going to hit NO and two hrs later my lights are out and I am on the edge of the eye.Seems like metro areas get alot of attention and Gulfport is still no.2 on the list of probabilities.

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Time to sign off [Re: Lisa NC]
      #27479 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:54 AM

Well the van is packed, everything tied down and secured...just waiting on 3 am so we can hit the roads....Hopefully not as much traffic this early in the morning. I hope everyone in the path of Ivan is prepared whether your staying or leaving....My prayers are with family and friends here in Mobile and those in the path I do not know. I pray I have a house to come back to, which is up on a hill, but surrounded by pine trees...9 within 15 ft from my back door. Frederick was bad, but Ivan is going to be worse.

Southern4sure


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Ivan's storm...and great list kent [Re: HCW]
      #27480 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:55 AM

if you have kids there arent enough batteries in the world

batteries=your sanity

as for Ivan..
posts here tonight remind me of Isaac's storm the book
and the reality that years ago the only way people knew a storm was coming was:

the swells...riection and heights
cloud patterns...cirrus in summer in florida
winds
patterns...

reminds me of the book
tap lights are good for kids afraid of the dark they can sleep with them, easier than flashlights AA batteries.. weather radio... one with 9 volt the kids wont steal it for their games

buy batteries

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Sissy
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: Kent]
      #27481 - Wed Sep 15 2004 12:55 AM

These are great tips and I would like to add another one. I read this on another hurricane board and thought it was crazy, until I tried it. It works! We lost power in Orlando for 7 days and it was almost impossible to sleep at night because of the heat. Here is what I read about that worked: Right before you get into bed, wet the sheets very well with water. We were lucky enough to still have water and it does keep you cool enough to sleep. It also dries very quickly and you may have to re-wet the sheets later. This is something I was grateful to find out about....Another thing I did was to sleep with an icepack which also helped. Also, if you use battery powered lanterns, make sure you have enough 6 volt batteries for them. These were hard to find after the storm hit, and now I have stocked up on them to avoid that if another storm hits. A battery powered radio is a must..It's the only thing that will keep you from feeling totally cutoff from the world. Sissy

Edited by Sissy (Wed Sep 15 2004 12:59 AM)


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Ivan's storm...and great list kent [Re: LoisCane]
      #27482 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:00 AM

If you run out of batteries after the storm, I promisse my husband and his team will be there immediately after restocking the shelves at Lowes.

Wow! just read my post after it posted.........Sorry about the spelling, I've been staring at this screen for so long that I can't see straight.

--------------------
Kelly


Edited by kelcot (Wed Sep 15 2004 01:02 AM)


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: MrSpock]
      #27484 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:03 AM

Quote:

This may go a shade west of Mobile Bay, but the exact location may matter little.




In a former life I spent a year in Biloxi (next to the lighthouse) and a year North of Fort Walton Beach. I have made many trips between the 2 on US 90 & 98 and have spent some time along the way.

Using a higher resolution than Skeetobite, I see the current forecast would put the eye over Dauphin Island and Bellingrath Gardens as it heads towards Mobile's west side and the U of S Ala.

While any destruction there will indeed be felt most by the local residents, there are many places that have given pleasure to vistors from far away.

I suppose the best wishcast would be for CAT 1.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
annoying error by local tv station regarding Ivan [Re: BeachBum]
      #27485 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:28 AM

This may not belong in here..and if not please move/remove anyway...I keep noticing a local TV station WTHR keeps putting a link to a satellite shot on their main page - but listing it as "updated radar image". Why on would they not just come out and say satellite image? To keep from confusing the public? Or does the web designer just not have a clue what it really is?

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Miami Advice
Unregistered




Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: BeachBum]
      #27486 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:42 AM

I would like to reiterate what was said before regarding riding out the storm. If you live in a flood zone LEAVE. Seek shelter in a concrete block structure away from the coast and/or flood zones. As much as I love hurricanes, I will never forget the nightmare of Aug. 24, 1992 in South Dade. I had hurricane supplies from A to Z. I had more supplies than anyone I knew. Unfortunately, I had not prepared myself mentally. I could never have imagined what I saw. My advice to anyone in the path of a major hurricane is to stay calm. Try to stay focused on your immediate surroundings. Find a safe structure in which to ride out the storm. Seek shelter in a small interior room or closet. Try to bring a mattress with you in case the roof comes off. Don't panic if the roof comes off - if the walls are concrete block, they should remain standing. You would be amazed at how calm it remains inside despite the missing roof. Do not exit the structure when the going gets tough. The storm won't last forever so be patient and calm - things will work out alright. My thoughts are with you.

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