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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: BeachBum]
      #27487 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:45 AM

Ivan heading on schedule, just alittle faster then what was forcasted by the NHC. Ivan should continue with its NNW movement into tomorrow with a more N turn and maybe NNE just a few hours before landfall tomorrow night. I think they will though move up the landfall some. The upper level westerly flow will start to affect Ivan later in the afternoon on weds. This will cause a shift to the NNE and NE after landfall and movement will be under 10mph during the day. Landfall is still projected near Biloxi and the worst weather will be there- Mobile. Winds will be around 120-130mph a Cat 3 but outside of the barrier islands winds will be closer to 100mph on the inner eye wall with gusts higher. I expect a slow movement up to the App mts. It could stall out for a day or 2 before slowly lifting off to the NE later Sunday into Monday. Currently the flow is very weak as the ridge over the bahamas has backed into florida. There is considerable dry air over the Se U.S. and Florida. There is a severe line of TS off the coast of Florida and could move into FT Myers thru the coastal Tampa area by Sunrise. This same band should come up to the Appalachie bay area- Panama City coastal areas near the same time. I expect massive amount of tornados to be spawned in these outerbands and inland as the storm approaches and moves inland. This will continue thru Friday and being sparatic on Sat. Storm surge Im still expecting around 8-10 ft just to the east of the center, especially Mobile Bay-Pensocola areas with lower amounts farther east. West central florida will also recieve up to 4 ft above normal during high tide Weds afternoon. Rain fall amounts should be around 6-12 inches around and east of the center with lesser amounts to the west and east of Panama city where they could get up to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. Expect power outages for extended periods throughout LA to Panama city areas, but to a less degree in NO.
Jeanne continues to look better from earlier this evening. Some dry air to its west is slowly moistening up. Better convection on the S side of her continues to improve. Motion has been roughly 290dg at 5kt over the last 6 hrs. Expect a general W to WNW motion to skim the southern coast of Puerto Rico and possibly coming onshore the NE part of Dominica on Thurs morning. Currently Hurricane warnings are out for Puerto Rico and Jeanne could be upgrade to it sometime during the day Weds. Now its unclear if it will move into Dominican Republic or skimm the north coast,,,,never the less a downgrade to TS status will happen on Thursday unless it moves NW to avoid landfall or skims the island. Hard to pinpoint this right now. Movement should continue to the WNW towards the Turks on Friday into Saturday, and I expect it to regain hurricane status later on Saturday. Right now my 3 day forcast has it just east of the Turks by Friday evening. After that the long range shows 2 possibilities. 1 most models show it moving NNW to east of Grand Bahama by late sunday into monday and stalling out as heights rise to its north with a very strong ridge forcasting to move into the midatlantic states. How strong is the key to the movement next week towards florida,,,w or wnw from there. 2nd possibility is Jeanne stay more s and move just north of Cuba along the coast and south of Abaco and nearing the keys by Monday into Tuesday, it could then move more NW into the extreme SE gulf and threaten the SW coast of florida or continue more W into the S-Central gulf,,,,,,wayyy to early to tell if it even does the 2nd scenerio. Pretty much its a wait and see and first thing is first,,how much interaction with the Dominican Republic is the starter.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it. [Re: scottsvb]
      #27488 - Wed Sep 15 2004 01:55 AM

Thanks Scottvb,
My thoughts and prayers are with those in Ivan's path of destruction.......

But for those in Central and South Florida, there is never a dull moment this hurricane season.

Please everyone along the central Gulf Coast....be safe.
Get out of harms way.
I'm listening to radio tonight and apparently there are thousands of people who have listened to the warnings and have evacuated to destinations all over from Texas down to Florida and states North too.

My prayers continue.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Evacuation Update [Re: scottsvb]
      #27489 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:03 AM

I've spent the last hour checking with evacuees from Mobile and the FL Panhandle. Here are their reports.
Pensacola to Hattiesburg,MS. 159 miles-10 hours
Gulfport,MS to Hattiesburg. 60 miles-6 hours.
US 98 from Mobile is bumper to bumper here. US HWY 49 is also bumper to bumper going through Hattiesburg.
I-59 from New Orleans seems to be doing a lot better. I estimated the traffic moving at 45 to 50 mph.
Shelters have been opened in Natchez, Vicksburg and Brandon,MS. Hattiesburg has 2 shelters open. The main one being at the YMCA. On HWY11 just north of I-59 Exit 60.
Don't wait to leave. It's taking a long time to move everyone.


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chuck325
Unregistered




Re:Faster Movement N [Re: javlin]
      #27490 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:05 AM

I HAVE TO AGREE WITH YOU N.O IS GETTING WAY TO MUCH ATTENTION: THEY HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT FREAKING EVERBODY IN N.O FOR NO CAUSE AND PRETTY MUCH (fox news) HAS MADE APPARENT THAT PEOPLE IN GULFPORT MOBILE AND P-COLA ARE NON EXISTENT IN THIS PATH OF THE STORM. THE HURRICANE IS OBVIOUSLY MADE ITS MIND AND IF WATCH A SATTILITE VIEW ITS APPARENT THE NNW WILL CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH RIGHT BELOW MOBILE BAY. ON TOP OF THAT IVE BEEN SAYING SINCE IT WAS DOWN BELOW JAMAICA TO MY DAD THAT IT WOULD HIT AROUND GULF SHORES HAD A FEELING. I MY SELF LIVE IN P-COLA UNFORTUNATELY FROM WHAT IM HEARING I MIGHT BE BETTER OFF WITH A DIRECT HIT THAN BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT........LAST BUT NOT LEAST I SAW A HURRICANE RESEARCH TEAM FROM NHC WITH A DEVICE THAT MEASURES A HURRICANE AND THEY ATTEMPT TO GET AS CLOSE TO THE CENTER AS POSSIBLE AND THEY WERE DRIVING THRU P-COLA AND I HAPPEN TO SEE THEM ON CHANNEL FIVE DEPLOYING THE MACHINE IN GULF SHORES. NOW IM NOT A BUREDEN OF BAD NEWS BUT WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO SAY?????
read you loud and clear.. fox is hyping N.O. (other networks too) and that's not where the hurricane is going. jefferson co. miss over to baldwin co. alabama will see the worst (there's a little town in there called mobile, by the way), i do wish those areas were getting more attn from the national media, but that's newsies for ya. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 15 2004 11:11 AM)


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CHUCK325
Unregistered




Re:Faster Movement <CORRECTION> [Re: chuck325]
      #27491 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:08 AM

I SAW THE HURRICANE RESEARCH TEAM AND THEY DESCRIBED ON CHANNEL 5 WHAT THEY DO AND WHAT THEY DO WITH THE MACHINE AND THEY ARE DEPLOYING IT IN GULF SHORES. HOPING THE EYE WILL PASS OVER.........

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re:Faster Movement N [Re: chuck325]
      #27493 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:13 AM

New Orleans is getting major attention because it is below sea level and it has the possibility of massive casualties if people did not heed the warning and evacuate.

I don't Think that Biloxi and Mobile are getting any less attention at least not on any of the sources I'm monitoring.
We al know that P-cola is right there in the right quadrant of the storm as well.

I'm glad N.O. has evacuated. Ivan may very well keep going on a NNW path and not turn North which will take it much closer to the N.O. metro area.
I'm sorry this storm has to hit anyone.
Please stay safe.

BTW, NHC had that same equipment on Fla's east coast during Frances last week. looks like a big radar.

Stay safe.


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sLoW::m0fo
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: MikeC]
      #27494 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:14 AM

Deleted

Edited by John C (Wed Sep 15 2004 06:08 AM)


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chuck325
Unregistered




Re:Faster Movement N [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27495 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:21 AM

The website for the hurricane research team is hurricanetrack.com this site also has a video feed from foley alabama its worth checking out. To respond to weather guru yeah i belive the evacuation should be warranted but at the same I do believe mobile is getting lesser attention than it deserves being right in the forcast track i single out fox news especially and i think some people can agree with me. Its like a special person getting special attenion N.O being that special person it might not be in the path of the cone but its drawing attention from mobile and it does form a false since of security in people around mobile that watch these particular news stations giving them the idea thats its heading to N>O whe its not......

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Duncan
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: ]
      #27499 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:28 AM

Trolling a hurricane board on the eve of what could possibly the worst hurricane to hit the Us in years. Grow up. Mike C works too hard to put up with jerks like you. Stop acting like you are 10 years old.

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Miami Advice
Unregistered




Re:Faster Movement N [Re: chuck325]
      #27502 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:31 AM

Thanks for the link. They actually anchor their Isuzu SUV to the ground. Hopefully they will gather some interesting and useful data.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re:Faster Movement N [Re: chuck325]
      #27504 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:38 AM

I bring this up because it happened with Georges here in Biloxi.Now the storm is moving a good strong NNW course and 11mph on the 1:00pm #.The 10:00pm # where actually 9mph it's how the NHC does there avg. O.K.That is fine.I am really beginning to doubt the dropsonde data to some degree.The dropsonde's might be good in the future eventually but right now they seem to stink.Frances was N.C. and N.C. till at 36hrs at her current speed and direction Fl. was to take a hit.Then did the NHC go look at the data and admit a problem.I hope Ivan comes in to my E but I think that it is not going to happen,Slidell to Gulfport.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re:Faster Movement N [Re: Miami Advice]
      #27505 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:38 AM

Speaking of topic, I couldn't get any more wasteder if I tried. Some old hurricane buds from the 80's forced me to show up at a party tonight. Wow; We ripped it up. Here's hoping I've got some westerly component to track tomorrow and add a little spice to the afternoon.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained [Re: MikeC]
      #27515 - Wed Sep 15 2004 06:26 AM

Everyone who is in Ivan's path, my thoughts and prayers go out to you, please stay safe.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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KornR
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: High Springs, Fl.
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: Kent]
      #27517 - Wed Sep 15 2004 06:37 AM

One trick I used for Frances (power out for 6 days). I got a cheap set of yard lights, they are 12 volt and come with 50' of wire and 10 light fixtures. I built strings of them and ran them around diff. areas of the house. Used my trolling motor battery and ran them every nite with same charge on battery. This gave nice lite that was spread around, safe and only cost $20. Made it easier to move around the house. Good luck to all, you are in my thoughts and prayers.

--------------------
"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"


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John C
Unregistered




Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: KornR]
      #27519 - Wed Sep 15 2004 06:42 AM

On another note: FEMA will reimburse you if you purchase a generator but call them first. I even heard they will wire money into your bank account if you can not afford to purchase one. Only after your area is effected they will do this not before. My power just came back on yesterday after Frances. I already have a generator but boy do they come in handy.
Better get some gasoline cans too.


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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ... 27.89N 81.84W
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: ]
      #27521 - Wed Sep 15 2004 06:51 AM

Post Charley / trances - I was told that FEMA will also pay for chainsaws to clear trees.

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dolphinscry
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: Cathy]
      #27522 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:25 AM

Thoughts and prayers to all.....
Just follow your EOC's advice, use your own common sense and most of all: BE PATIENT!
I definatley learned patience and humility w/ Bonnie, Charley, and Frances.
You will be tested in so many ways, and will also learn so much...about yourself, your neighbors, etc.
Help out others as best you can, and always remember that saftey comes first.
(sorry-- I dont mean to sound as if I am preaching, but I just want to help)
As for lighting suggestions, I also found to be quite cheap and sooo handy, is the solar lighting light fixtures.
Yes, eventually the sun comes out, and when I ran out of batteries, I found them to be better than oil lamps, candles, etc.---We couldnt and still cant get a generator!---
Anyway, you can find them at JcPenney, Eckerd, home improvement centers......If you have sunshine now, "charge" them now, Also, under a strong light works, too.
So, again, good luck and Godspeed to all.
Lori
PS>
If you cant find plywood, the hard plastic they make those roadside signs out of work well on windows...

--------------------
"If you can't be a good example,
then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." -Catherine Aird


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: ]
      #27524 - Wed Sep 15 2004 08:54 AM

Wow John. Welcome back too. I'm sure I don't have to tell you but that's a loooooong time to be without power. Glad all is well.

Tylenol is kicking in and helping me shake off those cobwebs. Though I plan on doing a little drinking today, it's going to be beer and more in moderation than last night . Today is grey and breezy here. Winds haven't really started picking up yet (sustained 8-10, gusting to 20ish), but I know they will. The first major rainband (of the rainshield) is nearing the entire northern Gulf, but it is still a few hours offshore in most places. To guarantee a piece of that, I'm going to need Ivan to make it a few tenths farther west. Otherwise, we'll just see a few minor bands rotating out (see setup on New Orleans Long Range radar

I'm going to grab a couple more of hours sleep (if possible!!!!!) so I can be ready to face whatever awaits beginning this afternoon. I promise to take pictures of the neighborhood and post them where possible. Please everyone who remains in the path of the storm (from New Orleans to Tallahassee), get some digital photos to post when you are able to get back on line (hopefully sooner than John C).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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waync2
Unregistered




N.O. live TV feed [Re: dolphinscry]
      #27525 - Wed Sep 15 2004 08:58 AM

hi,

found this on another board. live streaming vid.

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad



wm


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: For those who lose power...please read and print [Re: dolphinscry]
      #27526 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:03 AM

First off, my prayers are with everyone on the guld coast looking at this monster heading on shore....

Just saw on TWC that the first outerbands of precip are almost on shore...Dr John Nese said that there will probably be tornadoes on the right front quadrant, so the panhandle of Florida alond with far southwest Georgia will be affected.

In New Orleans, pretty much every major airline has ceased operations there including Delta, Air-Tran, and the like...Also, the Associated Press said that they will continue to file stories from NoLa, but they will not be from their office as they have evacuated it.

Here in Atlanta, there was a huge run at Home Depot stores for tarps, batteries and flashlights, and the grocery stores had a big day yesterday too as Atlanta was spooked by Frances and is worried by Ivan with the probable incessant rain and high winds....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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