cindy
Registered User
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Loc: Mobile, AL
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Don’t know if this is a love letter or a thank you note-guess its both! Found you guys a few days ago-thank God. Your views on all this have been so incredibly helpful. Mike, you are one awesome guy. Can’t begin to name all the others-amazing how much affection and respect you can develop for people you have never met. Am busy now putting into action some of the ideas posted for dealing with lost power and such (thank you is so inadequate)-went through Fred, dread the aftermath more than the storm. To my friend out by the airport, hang in there-official word is that if you are in a sturdy structure out of flood danger, you should be ok-we are in Cottage Hill just down the road from you and will be here for the duration as will most of our neighbors. May be a rough night, but Im confident all will be well. Gotta get back to work now-will check in later. Prayers to Jason and everyone in harms way and loving gratitude to all!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Ivan heading on schedule, just alittle faster then what was forcasted by the . should continue with its NNW movement into tomorrow with a more N turn and maybe NNE just a few hours before landfall tomorrow night. I think they will though move up the landfall some. The upper level westerly flow will start to affect later in the afternoon on weds. This will cause a shift to the NNE and NE after landfall and movement will be under 10mph during the day. Landfall is still projected near Biloxi and the worst weather will be there- Mobile. Winds will be around 120-130mph a Cat 3 but outside of the barrier islands winds will be closer to 100mph on the inner eye wall with gusts higher. I expect a slow movement up to the App mts. It could stall out for a day or 2 before slowly lifting off to the NE later Sunday into Monday. Currently the flow is very weak as the ridge over the bahamas has backed into florida. There is considerable dry air over the Se U.S. and Florida. There is a severe line of TS off the coast of Florida and could move into FT Myers thru the coastal Tampa area by Sunrise. This same band should come up to the Appalachie bay area- Panama City coastal areas near the same time. I expect massive amount of tornados to be spawned in these outerbands and inland as the storm approaches and moves inland. This will continue thru Friday and being sparatic on Sat. Storm surge Im still expecting around 8-10 ft just to the east of the center, especially Mobile Bay-Pensocola areas with lower amounts farther east. West central florida will also recieve up to 4 ft above normal during high tide Weds afternoon. Rain fall amounts should be around 6-12 inches around and east of the center with lesser amounts to the west and east of Panama city where they could get up to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. Expect power outages for extended periods throughout LA to Panama city areas, but to a less degree in NO.
Jeanne continues to look better from earlier this evening. Some dry air to its west is slowly moistening up. Better convection on the S side of her continues to improve. Motion has been roughly 290dg at 5kt over the last 6 hrs. Expect a general W to WNW motion to skim the southern coast of Puerto Rico and possibly coming onshore the NE part of Dominica on Thurs morning. Currently Hurricane warnings are out for Puerto Rico and Jeanne could be upgrade to it sometime during the day Weds. Now its unclear if it will move into Dominican Republic or skimm the north coast,,,,never the less a downgrade to TS status will happen on Thursday unless it moves NW to avoid landfall or skims the island. Hard to pinpoint this right now. Movement should continue to the WNW towards the Turks on Friday into Saturday, and I expect it to regain hurricane status later on Saturday. Right now my 3 day forcast has it just east of the Turks by Friday evening. After that the long range shows 2 possibilities. 1 most models show it moving NNW to east of Grand Bahama by late sunday into monday and stalling out as heights rise to its north with a very strong ridge forcasting to move into the midatlantic states. How strong is the key to the movement next week towards florida,,,w or wnw from there. 2nd possibility is Jeanne stay more s and move just north of Cuba along the coast and south of Abaco and nearing the keys by Monday into Tuesday, it could then move more NW into the extreme SE gulf and threaten the SW coast of florida or continue more W into the S-Central gulf,,,,,,wayyy to early to tell if it even does the 2nd scenerio. Pretty much its a wait and see and first thing is first,,how much interaction with the Dominican Republic is the starter.
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eulogia
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL
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Without reading through all the postings...we were reimbursed by FEMA already for our generator. Possibly it might have something to do with how close you were to the eye of the storm (Charley, in our case). We would certainly not qualify if our income were considered. Also, they might consider whether you actually had to do without power and water for a period of time, which we did.
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Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Note that was from last night, just requoteing the forcasts tracks. Line of storms was from last night near the Tampa area that later on mentioned and NWS but since then moved up northward.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I am having a hard time finding a link to best explain a convective tail, and a met could probably answer this better than me. It is very common for landfalling tropical systems to have a tail-like band of convection far from the center, probably due to the interaction with land and transition to an system.
I can't tell you where one will be, or even if there definitely will be one, but many storms having these. They are narrow bands of heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds, and they occur away from the main bulk of the storm.
Just keep an eye on the radar, and the sky.
If I can find a link, I will post one.
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!
I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.
In my area of Punta Gorda that was 10 days after .
Hi all...been lurking here since 2003 (Isabel), and thought I'd add to this... If you get a battery powered TV (or one that uses 12 volt power), consider buying a 12 volt "jumper box", commonly used by auto repair shops. They usually have a 12 volt power outlet (cigar lighter plug), along with an air compressor and light (also useful), and are readily available at most Sam's Clubs, auto parts stores, etc. I used one from my shop through here, (Cape Coral), both during the storm and afterward, and have now added one dedicated for hurricane use only. They typically run between $50-$90 depending on how many extras you want on them. Hope this can help, and you all in the warning area stay safe!
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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I think that model is asleep at the wheel
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I received my FEMA check for 50.00. There was no reimbursement for a generator, even though I had no power or water for 12 days (I am on well water). So Leetdan is correct, there is no, repeat no guarantees that you will get anything.. Hopefully the people in the Gulf Coast have been deductibles for Windstorm than us in Florida.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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My prayers go out to everyone in the path of .
Are you going to start a new string on Jeanne? I am once again in the dreaded CONE! I want to keep an eye out for Her
Thanks all
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Actually, that is a definate possibility. Note how hangs up and stalls and even backs a little west in the later part of that model. There is a definate possibility of that happening. Not saying it will; but the model is not out to lunch.
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Jim
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Like Chief Science Officer Spock, I too am finding it hard to get definitive info on a convective tail...I have seen NWS use the term in their statements...this one is from Dec. 21, 2003:
"ETA IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH ITS FCST OF KEEPING THE STREAMS SEPARATED. THE IS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS. THEY ALL FCST SHRTWV ENERGY IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS TO BEGIN PHASING
DURG THE LATER HALF OF THE PD. HPC IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO AR AND LA."
Were I to make an 'educated guess' I would think the convective tail is the tail end of the "comma" seen in many low pressure systems...I'll try to find out a more definitive answer...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Accuweather was wrong for N.O
Actually Accuweather (or at least Bastardi) was right all along. He said last week that 's threat was to the western edge of guidance from the Mouth to Apalachacola. It was all posted here and can be reviewed. Bastardi said he thought it would get to 88 or 89 (small chance for 90). is currently at 88W and if it can squeeze any more western component with the 350 heading, it could get over as far as 88.3 (18ish miles farther west). Extreme case now would be 88.7ish. Everyone else was wrong - from the to most of the best forecasters on and S2k that I turn to for guidance. I got lucky with this one. I had a Moss Point to Seaside hit from last Wed or Thurs. I liked it at weak Cat 4 or strong Cat 3. Sometimes we hit, sometimes we miss. But here's where I don't have a clue - What happens over the next week wtih Jeanne and with ? There are a plethora of models disagreeing on what's going to happen. Does sit for 2-5 days in the Southern Appilachains? Bastardi seems to think 'epic' flooding of up to 2 feet in some areas. That's insane. Those areas have been inundated this year which is all verified by the Drought Index (currently not showing any yellows, browns or reds east of the MS).
US Drought Monitor
Some of the models return to the Gulf of Mexico as a closed area of circulation. Compounding everything is Jeanne's anticipated western bend later in her forecast. She looks like she's getting formidable on Puerto Rico Radar Hopefully Luis is fairing well (appears to be a flood threat).
So some of the models see development off the Carolinas and FL/Gulf. Which one is Jeanne and which one is or is there a homebrew pending if cuts up much farther west (say toward the Great Lakes?). In the Wake of 's landfall, there will be plenty to sort out. Looks like another interesting week in the tropics. Good luck and prayers to all.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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BabyCatAtWork
Unregistered
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Agree.
This thing certainly has an aversion to land.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Jeanne making landfall 20 miles east of Ponce, Puerto Rico. Winds near 70mph and rainfall amounts up to 6 inches can be expected with amounts up to 1 foot in the mountains. A general wnw across the southern then western part of the island can be expect during the afternoon today exiting the NW coast later this evening. Could weaken down to near 60mph as of 5pm unless it stays just s of track.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I stand corrected......but I saw that 90 west thing several times, and that is why it stuck in my mind.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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your right steve,,but not before my forcast of Biloxi-Mobile 6 hours before him,,,,,hehehehee.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ivan is tracking EXACTLY as SSD is forecasting...(click forecasts points) in this WV loop.
Invest 91L up...T#s only 1.0/1.0 so far but will need to be watched...somewhere around 10N/26W.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Using only the English language, one would imagine that a convective tail is the tail end of the front - specifically an area with large amounts of convection.
YMMV, SPSFD 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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lol. You do a great job Scott and hit many storms. But you need to loosen up that tie and take some earlier wild guesses and gut feelings. had the look of an AL/MS storm since it took the path west of the Cuban tip.
Spock,
New Orleans is on 90 and that's why it's been a possibility, though a western outlier. Joe had it brushing or hitting lower Plaquemines Parish/Mouth of the River (something most of usnever think of as a hit because there is always somewhere farther north thereafter). He thought South Mississippi, and he's probably going to be right (though my guess is that will be coming in near Moss Point/Pascagoula).
It can't be emphasized enough how bad things could get for Mobile, AL. Phil quoted Joe's 9 update, but the videos yesterday and today really hammered the point home. You guys in south Mobile and South Baldwin Counties (as well as Escambia Co. FL and Jackson Co. MS are in for the worst trouble.)
Steve
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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It does look like a cold frontal feature, but it occurs when systems are still tropical in nature.
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