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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
C'mon we ALL know who nailed this storm first [Re: Steve]
      #27587 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:30 AM

let's just hope his boat survives.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Frank P - riding it out... [Re: scottsvb]
      #27588 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:32 AM

After some serious soul searching I've decide to ride out the storm in Biloxi... wife has evacuated to the MS Power Plant to support work operations as well as ride the storm out...

I feel very confident that I will remain on the west side of the storm, which was so critical to me, and I really like the fact that the NHC is real confident on the Mobile scenario, as well as Biloxi is on the far extreme on the west side of the cone right now... as Phil said, this could be the worst disaster in Mobile history... Fredrick was bad, this has the potential to be worse... Fredrick was not that bad for us in BIloxi... bad, but not that bad...

If for any reason he shifts more to the left, and gets close to 88.5 longitiude, I'll leave my house and go to my neighbors RV dealership on Hwy 49 near I-10.... will monitor this very closely for sure

Leaving ones home is a tough decision as I'm sure you all know... I think my decision is sound..... and well thought out... I'll try to post conditions in Biloxi, but that will be limited to how long I have access to my hard line... do have about 10 hours of laptap battery capability... I have never been more prepared for a hurricane in my life... and I can thank the members of this board for contributing to my readiness...

Please keep your prayers for those in harm's way

Frank P


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27589 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:33 AM

You got it Frank P, hang in there!

Coop

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #27590 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:35 AM

Frank P...

godspeed...you contribute so much to this site...hope the NHC is correct. Keep us updated on the conditions...you getting any TS winds yet?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: Steve]
      #27591 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:36 AM

Actually steve, Basardi at first said the current area while some of us were thinking western florida with the NHC. Then Basardi said the same about western florida. You said from St. Marks, Fl - somewhere ( I dont recall). Now after the jog south of Jamaica, Phil asked me last Saturday what would be a good guess on a florida impact, I said with the data I recieved I would guess Biloxi MS. At that moment Basardi and NHC were forcasting Tampa N to Panama City. Later the next morning Basardi was scolding himself by going back on his original forecast and went in lines of what I was seeing while the NHC kept adjusting theyre forecast to then Pensacola- Cedar key. You also then adjusted with Basardi on your current area landfall ( which is good steve) I mean that was still 4 days out. But to say most of the pros on here were wrong is kinda not true. Im not a pro, I just have a deg. Clark is still in school, and Jason also didnt say a exact point as it still wasnt known to the exact path it would take. Maybe yeah I should loosen up my tie, if you take your shower and cool off,,hehehee.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27592 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:37 AM

Frank...you're a rebel! j/k Good luck...looks like it will go slightly east of there...hope you take some digital photos for the family photo abulm...think you will get the western eyewall?

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27593 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:39 AM

I understand as I also did not leave my home as my wife had to work the A Team as a nurse when Frances came. But amply supply your safe room where you ought to be and listen in on your weather channel and stay safe and only evacuate if you really need to!

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #27594 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:39 AM

thanks coop.... one more thing...

anyone see anything of a hint of this thing going more left, even if you're not sure, please post and provide your rationale... I will depend on your experise gang to help me make sure I am doing the right thing.... I feel I have at least 4-6 more hours or so before it might get to bad to evacuate... so any input you have will be greatly appreciated...

I have been so busy with preps I have had little time to track... you''d think that' s all I'd do, but its been the least thing I done.... just got thru securing the top of my fireplace with rope to prevent it from blowing off...

thanks


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: scottsvb]
      #27595 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:41 AM

scott didnt you say last week florida was the target?

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27596 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:42 AM

Good luck and stay safe. I presume by your confidence you live in a secure building -- I was far more worried for my safety when I rode out CAT1 Irene's eye in a 40-yr-old two-story wood frame building than when I was in a much newer CBS home for CAT2 Frances...

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scottsvbs 'cast [Re: GaryC]
      #27597 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:44 AM

I busted scott on Sat. and a number of users asked me to back off...so I did and I asked scott to make a best guess...he said Biloxi...that's a friggin five-day forecast if I ever saw one.

BTW...last week EVERYONE was saying Florida...why do you think Tampa was so freaked for so long.

Tip o'the cap to scott on this one!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: GaryC]
      #27598 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:48 AM

Ivan radar
Jeanne radar

Jeanne is looking more like a hurricane with each passing hour on radar

also, there is 91L out by Africa, which could be a TD in a few days

As for Ivan, it looks like it could take a similar track to the 1906 hurricane or Frederic in 1979 near Mobile Bay


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27599 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:49 AM

Justin, I think I might get the extreme western edge of the eye wall,it will not be as bad as the eastern part for sure, my only concern is from trees, of which my house is surrounded, by the ones that could do the catastrophic damage, the two 500 year old oak trees in the front yard would fall towards the south, and not on my house... the other trees would damage the house but not destroy it...

tides are running about 2-3 feet above normal right now, the water is quite slick but there are these cool 2-3 feet waves breaking, almost surfable for you surfing freaks... and that is something you DO NOT see to often on the Biloxi beach...

Phil, no wind to speak of yet, maybe some gusts to 20 max out of the NE....

Edited by Frank P (Wed Sep 15 2004 11:50 AM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: Rabbit]
      #27600 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:50 AM

Hey Rabbit,

Can you work the dreaded "Rabbit Voodoo Hex" [tm by HF] on Ivan...knock him down a few catagories? Thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27601 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:51 AM

Frank, We'll be praying for you. I do believe he has shifted a hair left on his track according to the latest vis loop. The big easy will be close to the western eyewall.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: Rabbit]
      #27602 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:52 AM

I said Florida looks like a good target yes, but also said I didnt know if it was going to hit, afterall it was 7 days ago. Last saturday I made a guess on a 5 day landfall of Biloxi. I feel 5 days out is just a good guess, 3 days out is a forecast.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: leetdan]
      #27603 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:55 AM

leedan, my house survived Camille, and without hurricane straps, since it has been totally remodeled, and I have triple redundance of hurricand straps and clips on every joice and rafter.... also rewrapped my entire house with an addition layer plywood over the exterior, my house is very solid... the wind will not take it down, I'm very confident of that, but the oak trees in the front could cause considerable damage and violate the structural integrity of the house, with the north wind, that concern is dimished somewhat

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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Scottsvbs 'cast [Re: LI Phil]
      #27604 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:55 AM

Just messin scott! Who didnt say fl?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Convective Tail... [Re: scottsvb]
      #27605 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:56 AM

Ty phil,, I try my best,, and yeah my call for Biloxi was a good guess cause it was 5 days out. A real forecast that Mets like todo is no more then 3 days out....4-5 days are just too hard to forecast as alot can happen. But as of Monday it turned into 3 day forecast and I didnt see anything that could of changed it. I tried to think of possible solutions for a farther east path to w-central florida,,, but I didnt think theyre was going to be the right set up for the turn...so I kept saying Biloxi and if i was wrong by more then 50 miles each side of there,,then it would been a bad forecast. So far,,It still looks on. Hard point will be of Jeanee and how she interacts with Dominica.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Frank P - riding it out... [Re: Frank P]
      #27606 - Wed Sep 15 2004 11:56 AM

Sorry Scott . I had it Moss Point to Seaside (remember, I try to use more obscure cities than everyone else does). When the TPC had a Big Bend hit, I noted the compromise was Blue Mt. Beach to Seaside, but I never called for that. The same post said:

I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.



Here's the call from Thursday:

In my world, I'm not thinking of Ivan as a direct threat to New Orleans. However, many locals will recall recent hurricanes that went in east of here (Opal in 1995 and Georges in 1998) and their impacts on the city. In the case of Opal, we had 40+mph winds coming right off of Lake Pontchartrain as the center moved inland in WFL. We got a very dry flow from the storm. Georges was much closer (landfall near Pascagoula/Moss Point) and the majority of fishing camps on the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain were destroyed (along with Brunnings Seafood Restaurant). Camps in the Rigolets also sustained heavy damage. I've got a feeling that if Ivan does indeed pass south of Jamaica, it's probably headed for a MS/AL/Escambia Co., FL landfall. It's far too early to say at what strength it will hit because 1) we don't know what interactions with land await, and 2) most Cat 5's can't maintain quite that intensity level for any lengthy duration of time (5 days). But if nothing else, it appears that our 4th landfalling US hurricane of the year is almost inevitable as well as our 3rd Gulf landfall and possibly 4th FL landfall of the season is in the offing. While no one is out of the woods yet, for anyone east of New Orleans, and Slidell to Panama City specifically, I'd be making my preparations before the crunch on Saturday and Sunday. If the CMC verifies (allegedly the best performing model on this storm so far, and the 12Z likes an AL/FL solution), then you eastern Gulf Coast residents and business owners are in for trouble.

It was posted on another board. But I'm taking my props and dishing you a few as well. Good job.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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