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Tropical Storm #Dolly Pulling North of Forecast. TS Winds Extend up to 115 Miles From Center. Flhurricane.com
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22.0N 97.0W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1004mb
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W at 12 mph
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rickwasright?
Unregistered




Re: rickontheboat [Re: BillD]
      #27926 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:24 PM

Whaddya ya know...not a Cat 5 at the moment, but Rick's continuous prediction came true...

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: rickontheboat [Re: BillD]
      #27927 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:24 PM

Latest airport observations.
Gulfport-030 23 g 43kts 29.50"
Pascagoula-030 23g31kts 29.47" pressure falling rapidly!!
Mobile-050 27g36kts 29.55"
Mobile Downtown- 040 29g37kts 29.52"
I believe Pascagoula will be closer to landfall than Mobile airport. Base dto the current pressure, and pressure trend.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: rickontheboat [Re: Rickwasright?]
      #27928 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:26 PM

Let's see who can finish this quote first...I haven't been able to get this tune out of my head since yesterday...

"the bricks lay on Grand Street
Where the neon madmen climb.
They all fall there so perfectly,
It all seems so well timed.
An' here I sit so patiently
Waiting to find out what price
You have to pay to get out of
Going through all these things twice.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be..."

here's to rickonboat and mbfly!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: rickontheboat [Re: LI Phil]
      #27929 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:29 PM

Down on Main Street- Bob Segar

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: models [Re: BillD]
      #27930 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:29 PM

read the key west melb. sites. models can change. this is not till weekend.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: rickontheboat [Re: danielw]
      #27931 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:30 PM

>>> Down on Main Street- Bob Segar

close but no stogie...and it's seger

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
PHIL.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27932 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:32 PM

don't mean to seem selfish.. but i am in miami.. what's your take on Jeanne and a huge curve they are forcasting.. i know its early.. but do you have any ideas?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: models [Re: meto]
      #27933 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:33 PM

I know, models are already changing. I'm telling everyone that asks me that we are not going to know what Jeanne is going to do until the end of the week.

Bill


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: rickontheboat [Re: LI Phil]
      #27934 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:35 PM

dylan ?
Stuck inside of Mobile with the memphis blues again.
Helen


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: PHIL.... [Re: trinibaje]
      #27935 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:35 PM

You're not selfish at all, as this will probably be Hurricane Jeanne by 11...

I'm not really all that well qualifed to answer your question...but...I think it's GREAT news for ALL of florida...you're almost entirely out of the cone...too far off to tell...Scottsvb made one helluva 5 day on saturday, maybe he wants to take a stab at it..

As we have all learned this year, one cannot put too much in anything past 72 hours (3 days) so by Saturday we should have a much better handle on where Jeanne wants to go.

I'll go with my standard (ala rick) Hattaras then up towards me...

Of course I'll be wrong, but one of these days I'll get one right...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: PHIL.... [Re: trinibaje]
      #27936 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:36 PM

Excuse me but anyone may exercise the opportunity to be selfish during the 04 Cane season. Since Fl seems ot be getting More than their fair share.
I don't buy the hard recurvature "cone". Haven't looked at the models, but the current ridge would have to break down very fast to get a curve like that. IMHO


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: rickontheboat [Re: mojorox]
      #27937 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:37 PM

Helen/mojorox...we have a winner!

You had to figure there'd be SOME connection to this storm, no?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: PHIL.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27938 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:38 PM

Quote:

You're not selfish at all, as this will probably be Hurricane Jeanne by 11...

I'm not really all that well qualifed to answer your question...but...I think it's GREAT news for ALL of florida...you're almost entirely out of the cone...too far off to tell...Scottsvb made one helluva 5 day on saturday, maybe he wants to take a stab at it..

As we have all learned this year, one cannot put too much in anything past 72 hours (3 days) so by Saturday we should have a much better handle on where Jeanne wants to go.

I'll go with my standard (ala rick) Hattaras then up towards me...

Of course I'll be wrong, but one of these days I'll get one right...




Thank you... i have hurricane anxiety... as i am sure millions of people do this season.. i am going to buy stock in Zoloft!

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: rickontheboat [Re: LI Phil]
      #27939 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:39 PM

Last 20 minutes there have been at least 2 gusts up into the 40's that knocked a few smaller limbs off of my pecan trees. That's better than the twigs and leaves we've seen so far . Checked the NO/BR NWS and it showed gusts at Lakefront to 53 in the hour. I'm thinking 45+ with the last two. I guess there's a shot at some decent winds tongiht afterall with the eye coming closer (not directional but distance).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: PHIL.... [Re: danielw]
      #27940 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:40 PM

The BoatUS Spaghetti map shows about 2/3rd of the models curving North well offshore, the other 1/3rd trend west either South of or into Florida. I won't venture a guess myself until another 36-48 have passed and we have a better picture of what that ridge is doing.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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EdnVa
Unregistered




Dylan [Re: mojorox]
      #27941 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:41 PM

Like a hurricane.

Oh great, now I'm humming Scorpion songs...that ain't good...LOL!

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 15 2004 07:46 PM)


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gonyen
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: rickontheboat [Re: Steve]
      #27942 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:43 PM

Looks like a little E in there.

gonyen


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tim034
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27943 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:45 PM

Is their any way Ivan goes back up to lets say 145-150 mph or even more?Please respond everyone

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: rickontheboat [Re: Steve]
      #27944 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:45 PM

Quote:

Last 20 minutes there have been at least 2 gusts up into the 40's that knocked a few smaller limbs off of my pecan trees. Steve




Just had our biggest wind gust here as well. Weather bug site has gusts recorded as 40's, I'd venture a guess that the one we just had was an easy 50. I watched several small branches fly past my door.Starting to feel a little like Dorothy in the Wizard of OZ.


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gonyen
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: rickontheboat [Re: gonyen]
      #27945 - Wed Sep 15 2004 07:46 PM

I think Ivan's startin' to hook a little.

gonyen


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