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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: rule]
      #28057 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:00 PM

Quote:

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...




Amen!!!!

I used to watch non stop back in the late 80's. Now maybe 10 minutes a month.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Fletch]
      #28058 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

TWC drives me nuts anymore. 3000 commercials an hour, and 30 minute shows about famous weather happenings. Who cares!? That's what the Discovery channel is for! Gimme my weather 24/7, even if it's not interesting. Both CNN and TWC made it big when that's ALL they did, not like what they do now.

(gets off soapbox)

We resume your regularly scheduled hurricane...




Amen!!!!

I used to watch non stop back in the late 80's. Now maybe 10 minutes a month.




(un)fortunately for us up north, that's all we get...but, ya gotta admit, where else can you see Stephanie Abrahms in a tight grey t-shirt in the morning and a "smurf" suit later on that day? (tip o' the cap to danny!)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: Nowcast [Re: Keith234]
      #28059 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:02 PM

Couple of points:

Regarding rivalries - you have no idea what it's like to have your rival be a chicken who thinks he's king of the roost, but loses more than 50% of the time. Let's just say that Hurricane Holtz is not a threat to land.

Regarding hurricanetrack.com - Is anyone else watching their webcam? I thought it was going to be at a fixed point anchored down close to the beach, but they seem to keep driving back to the police station. Does anyone know what's going on?

Regarding Ivan's track - It definitely appears to be leaning more east than expected to me. The crosshairs seem to have moved to the AL/FL state line now.

Regarding buoys - Is the website just dead now or what? I keep getting a internet error page every time I try and go there.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: meto]
      #28060 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:04 PM

Quote:

what is FSU saying about jeanne




Earlier today it had it just East of S. FL . It was the furthest West model along with the GFDL. The GFDL went East but has come back West on the latest run.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28062 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:05 PM

I watched TWC for a few hours during Charley, not before or since. And I think I only watched it for a day or so last hurricane season, can't even remember why. I miss the way it used to be, with John Hope and almost no commercials. They may as well take it off the air as far as I am concerned.

Bill


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Nowcast [Re: Mozart]
      #28063 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:05 PM

I nregards to hurricanetrack, I think that survival instinct has kicked in. The Gulf is already very rough and pounding seas walls and the storm is still aboutthree hours away. I suspect if they stayed, they would have been a statistic.

--------------------
Jim


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: This A Jog East [Re: BillD]
      #28064 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:09 PM

Quote:

Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.

Bill




The NDBC is back up, but all the readings are about 2 hours old. Hopefully they will update soon. I'm curious as to what's going on at DPIA1, 42040, 42007, BURL1.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Area Storm Links [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28065 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:09 PM

Somewhere earlier I saw that the WJHG website was supposed to have a link to a webcam -- not that you can see much in the dark. I never could find it on their website. Anyone give me some navigation hints?

Also, what is this Rex block? I am not familiar with the term???


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Landfall point [Re: Mozart]
      #28066 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:10 PM

Looks like it is heading directly for Gulf Shores/Foley/Orange Shores and West Pensacola area and right up the east side of Mobile Bay.any thoughts? .I think it is hilarious on CNN with ANderson Cooper sitting in downtown Mobile...hope he is at least 2 stories high.

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Fletch]
      #28067 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:12 PM

ive been saying on the key west and melbourne discussions they said that a stong high from canada would be coming south later this week . and block jeanne from curving. models may now be picking that up.

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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Nowcast [Re: Mozart]
      #28068 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:12 PM

If you check the hurricanetrack site you will see the information from the vehicle they left on the beach. They were not going to stay with the vehicle thank goodness.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Area Storm Links [Re: cjzydeco]
      #28069 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:12 PM

An Omega Block is shaped like the Greek letter Omega, a Rex Block (pardon the loose explanation) is an Omega Block slanted to the right. Instead of having a N/S flow, it can actually loop around NE/SW, or even sharper.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Ivan/Jeanne [Re: MikeC]
      #28070 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:12 PM

Don't have a lot of time to go back through and reply to everything relevant, though it seems like everyone else did a pretty good job at it. Sounds like you all had a nice little diversion there awhile back as well with the music, haha. I just kept picturing someone playing "Rock Me Like a Hurricane" over and over again...alas, on to business.

Ivan's just a few hours from shore. The SW side of the storm appears to be less defined than before, though the eyewall is trying to hang in there. This could be significant, however, as to sparing a portion of the coast west of where Ivan makes landfall. The storm looks to be heading about 015-025 degrees, or NNE, of late with it's eye set on Mobile Bay. If current trends continue, however, the torn of Mobile may be spared the worst -- assuming that the eye and center move east of town. If the eye moves over the center of town, then all bets are off. Areas along the immediate coastline from Mobile Bay to the AL/FL border and slightly eastward to Pensacola look to take the brunt of this storm....and, unfortunately, the pictures out of that region are going to be devestating.

Regions well to the east of the center, up and down the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers & thereabouts, are also feeling effects from this storm in the way of numerous tornadoes. The cells have been racing from the south and southwest and spinning up vortices and tornadoes as they move on shore. A few more are on the way and will likely pass between Panama City and Tallahassee -- near Marianna -- in the coming hours. This threat will continue even well after Ivan makes landfall.

To those in Ivan's path -- stay safe and here's hoping for the best.

Jeanne -- NHC path looks good, actually, if only to slow it down a bit due to weaker steering currents. There is some correlation between what Ivan does and the future path of Jeanna, and I'm not 100% convinced I see it in the models yet. However, the further left track is similar if a bit north and faster of my thinking from yesterday and, like the NHC said, is only right of the GFDL and Superensemble...and in both cases, it's not by much (certainly not as much as earlier with the GFDL taking it into Florida). No one along the SE coast is out of the woods with this one yet, and it is still too far out to hazard a guess as to what it will actually do, so everyone from Key West to Cape Hatteras needs to watch this one. It's entirely possible it pulls a Floyd, getting near to shore before turning, while it's also possible this thing pulls and Erin and bends back west late in the period. It could also die out if it crosses too much land. Just need to watch it closely.

I do think the circulation will become a bit disrupted by Hispaniola, so I would lower the intensity forecast a tad. The circulation is small and the precise path, now that it is exiting Puerto Rico, will play a role in intensification. A ragged eye-type feature appears to be forming on radar imagery from San Juan, so it's not inconceiveable that this storm reaches hurricane intensity in the short-term in the Mona Passage, only to be knocked down a bit again as it passes Hispaniola. In any case, squalls will continue to affect the island of Puerto Rico through Thursday associated with a rather intense feeder band just nearing the eastern shore of the island now.

There's plenty of time to follow Jeanne and the E. Atlantic invest later, however, except for those in Puerto Rico dealing with the storm now. Hope all is well on the island there, though I'm sure we will hear reports of some wind damage in higher locales and flooding in the low-lying areas.

Here's hoping this erosion of the SW side of Ivan is a trend to shore and not a blip on the radar...it could well be significant in the long-term. This is going to be a major event well inland, and I hope people are prepared for the worst. Best wishes to all in its path.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Londovir
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 94
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: This A Jog East [Re: Kdubs]
      #28071 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:15 PM

I found another way into the buoy data, not sure if everyone knows this one or not: Buoy Data

As of 9:50EDT: 42040: 48.6KT (gust 64.1KT), 28.21 (-0.23), 28.5ft wave

All other stations are over 2 hours old in reports.

On a slightly off-topic, I noticed an hour or two ago, around the time the reports came in of 2 deaths from Tornados around PCB, that CNN.COM's webpage main story/headline was Martha Stewart asking to go to jail. Ivan was a little text byline on the side. I got a bit irked at that, and wrote them a nasty little email pointing out that utter lack of priorities....

--------------------
Londovir


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Landfall point [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28072 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:16 PM

Quote:

Looks like it is heading directly for Gulf Shores/Foley/Orange Shores and West Pensacola area and right up the east side of Mobile Bay.any thoughts? .I think it is hilarious on CNN with ANderson Cooper sitting in downtown Mobile...hope he is at least 2 stories high.




That looks about right. Further East of the bay the better.

It's only a matter of time before we lose one of these reporters in a storm. I think we could get camera shots without having live commentary. I, for one, am tired of hearing "The rain is coming down sideways and the sand is stinging my face."

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Area Storm Links [Re: cjzydeco]
      #28073 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:17 PM

Rex block is similar to what MrSpock explained above; the classical picture of it involves a low stuck in the middle of a ridge....and can very well happen when the ridge is too sharp and allows a low to bend back southwestward into it, giving the overall pattern this appearance of the "high over low" situation.

As with any block, it means the overall pattern isn't going to change much in the short-term until something comes along and busts up the block, whether by weakening the ridge or weakening the low.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Landfall point [Re: Fletch]
      #28074 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:17 PM

agreed. It is no longer new, nor novel. It gets tiring hearing someone struggling to speak.

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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Latest Buoy Readings [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #28075 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:20 PM

Right after I post that everything's out. New buoy readings become available:

42040 13 m from center - 49 kt winds, gusts to 64 ktd. Wave height at 29 ft.
42039 113 m from center 41 kt winds, gusts to 52 kt. Wave height at 36 ft.

Southwest Pass, LA - m from center, 69 kt winds, gusts to 77 kt.


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
Re: Nowcast [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #28076 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:20 PM

Is it me or does it look like that vehicle is halfway submerged right now?

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Wind/


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Landfall point [Re: MrSpock]
      #28077 - Wed Sep 15 2004 10:20 PM

"the wind is really picking up now!!!".... <sigh>

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