LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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for Frank P (I bet a lot on this board will be having a drink or three tonight after this wild ride) is of course bad news for countless others.
Fortunately, because of this board (or maybe in spite of it  ) I just hope everyone in 's path has done everything they could possibly do to be prepared. Hell is coming, there's no escaping that, and the aftermath could be even worse than imagined...
IF there is anyone still out there who has not made every precaution to protect life and limb, you don't have much time left...at this point, if you are still undecided about leaving, you would probably be better off staying or going to the nearest shelter...not trying to flee up north.
Good luck...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 15 2004 09:24 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Javlin, we're at 89, but your right, on its present track, with no wobbles either side we will be on the extreme outer edge of the western eye wall.... its going to be very rough, but it within my criteria for riding out the storm... you're only two blocks north of me, the thing about being on the beach with the north wind, it has to pass through the entire country before it gets to me, which helps knock it down somewhat.... actually being on the beach is an advantage with a north wind.... would have to do something really screwy right now to get me in the eastern quad, last night I was not to sure, hell, at 4 in the morning I was not to sure, I feel better about it right now... I just hope it doesn't bomb before landfall.....
Jav, not sure when we'll lose power, but I'd imagine around 10 ish or so... thanks for coming by this afternoon, nice to have a face to go with the post..
good luck fella
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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First reply. I've been addicted to this site since just before . I want to thank everyone here for your links, opinions, info and concern. I wanted to post a link that I find interesting in comparing storms.
Mods, if I post this wrong I'm sorry.
Local 6 Storm Tracker
Keep up the good work and thanx for explaining things to those of us who basically know "That thing is spinning" and not much else.
Bryan
P.S. The site isn't updated as often as it should be but it's still a great look. 
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Recon just gave their last report. Next lowlevel recon should be there in about two hours.
Bill
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
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Maggie'sMom
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Frank, could you tell me, based on what you've heard, what Pascagoula can expect if the north motion continues? Thanks. Getting real nervous here in Montgomery and not being able to get the kind of news I want. Please be safe.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Is there no end to the weather madness? I've gotten almost no sleep for a week (and I'm sure I ain't alone). Maybe Jeanne can come up my way and take some of FL's pain for once...I don't want it here of course, but anywhere's better than Florida.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lonny307
Unregistered
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I hope everyone stays safe. No use in trying to tough it out if your on the immediate coast. GET TO A SHELTER! For those inland my prayers are said for everyone. The worst after the storm is having no power for awhile. Be patient and help thy neighbor. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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New Orleans TV 6 just said that right now (based on BP) is the 7th strongest cane on record.... I didn't verify this as a fact just reporting what I heard...
geesh..... my heart goes out to S MS, all coastal AL and NW FL. ... they are going to take the brunt of this monster storm..
it will be a night they/we will never forget....
heck we still have lookie lu's riding up and down the front beach on us 90....
for the record..... the final hurricane prep.... my first long glass of crown to sooth the nerves...
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Wow! Thanx for posting that. Beautiful storm..Charley was my first hurricane and I was scared spitless at home. didn't scare me because I knew what to expect and I was at work (hospital) which was unkool but the storm was fun for me. The thought of this beast coming to us frightened me like nobodies business...I wish it had died and not harmed anyone but I'm thankful it didn't hit us...
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
Edited by Shalafi (Wed Sep 15 2004 09:44 PM)
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Cathy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
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CNN - just reported that the tornado sighted near Panama City did touch down, damaged a building, and caused injuries.
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waync2
Unregistered
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hi,
would the bulgeing on the west side of be a precursor to a turn? or is this just new conviction blowing up?
sorry frankP, just wondering.
most up-to-date sat loops i have found.
http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/
wm
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Ken-SRQ
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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BTW, nice board. I discovered it during and have lurked since then.
Another radar pic, this time from Slidell. The red dot in the eye is located at 28.49N 88.19W. seems to be making a beeline for the MS-AL border.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Frank, it looks like it is moving at worst (for you) at 360, or maybe just a hair right of due north. The large, well-defined eye passed a few miles right of the forecast overlay. Forecast track seems to be verifying well.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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MM, my best take on all this, not good for Pascagoula, but believe it or not it could be worse, especially if it wobbles a little to the west on landfall... got to hope for a little more drift to the east but I'm not sure if that is going to come.... as it stands right now they should get the full brunt of both the north and south eye walls, bad, bad, bad, but NOT dreaded east quad with the 16 foot storm surge....... still extremely bad... I can't sugar coat this... this is the only storm in my life that I seriously considered evacuating.... my a car is still packed in case something strange happens.... ... tree damage will be unbelievable.... I not sure how the surge will be in goula, but it should not be as bad as what the east quad will get... best guess, 6-10 feet max... still bad...
the strip of commerical activity on the west side of Mobile near the USS Alabama Battleship area will not be there after tonight.. this area will see catastrophic damage.... and worse than Fredrick..
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Man, you can really see that pentagram vortices within the eyewall with this one...beautiful and oh so scary at the same time...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 15 2004 09:50 PM)
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staggy
Unregistered
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wow....check the the wind speeds in these for tonight:
Local Forecast
Local Forecast Graph
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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
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tornadic activity in Panama City Beach....
Got this from Channel 13 there....
A tornado generated by Hurricane has touched down on Panama City Beach at about 3:40 CDT today.
Bay County Sheriff's office has closed down portions of Thomas Drive and Front Beach Road until a damage assessment can be done. There are late unconfirmed reports of possible injuries to an office who were patroling the area at the time.
Sheriff's spoksperson, Ruth Sasser, confirmed that there are injuries and people trapped in damaged structures on Panama City Beach.
This was one of several tornados that were spawned by the first significant rain bands from Hurricane .
Panama City and the surrounding area area continue to experience tornadic activity.
Also, read on another website a message saying that Jason Kelley's Tv station studio's were hit by a tornado, however, I have not been able to confirm that. There have been a lot of prank postings on that other site, so this may have been incorrect information....but checking.
Prayers to Jason and his wife and their children.
Best to all,
bob
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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one dead confirmed. and talk of a second unconfirmed. i keep getting booted. have aol at home and it cooperating.think we have had 6 tornados on the ground. the death came from the one that passed over jason
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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MrSpock, that is absolutely great news... as Phil said, my good news is someone else's bad new, I'm really concerned about my brother in Mobile, he is in a high risk area relative to large pine trees... ...
now if I can just get a little more east out of him, I might take on the whole bottle of crown and just sleep throught this damn storm... I bet I have not had more than 10 hours of sleep in the past 4 days... and I bet most of you are as sleep deprived as me...
I will not take down my plywood until December!
this years hurricane season is more than I can take.... no mass
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