Thunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Must be difficult for someone with a Florida Gator icon to compliment the Superensemble. 
OUCH! 
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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At least plywood can be taken out with an axe. Some of those storm shutters that get installed are down right impenetrable.
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Jim
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I was thinking the same thing 
It was interesting, however, that in the 5PM discussion on Jeanne, Beven said:
THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE AND SUPERENSEMBLE.
Earlier in the discussion he said that the was a left outlier that had come slightly more right this last run. As reliable as the Ensemble seems to have been, this makes me a little more nervous. However it is way to early to really predict what is going to happen. Maybe by Saturday we'll have a better idea.
Bill
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canerazor
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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my mom just jumped un off the porch, thought it was lightning. told her it was another transformer. we've seen afew go out 'round here; we still have power @ 8pm; lot's out in mobile south county. wind gusting in tree tops near hurr force, ground level 40mph or so. we're about 25 miles inland in Mobile though.
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lhag
Unregistered
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Just got back to my computer. Is anyone else having problems accessing the buoy info or do i have another damn virus?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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As the bands of moved into Miami it was daylight, we couldn't see the flashes, but we could sure hear the POP when they blew. Luckily we never lost power.
Bill
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That shortwave trough is giving us LIers some rain and cloudiness today, isn't it weird that the picks up with the trough but then doesn't think about how that will affect the path of Jeanne. I think their to infatuated with the models, and that they are oblivous to other factors. Don't really want to critize but sometimes I just don't agree with people.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.
Bill
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Latest has a somewhat improbable oblique entry into Florida somewhere around Jupiter and then shoots it up inland to around Jax. It had been further east this afternoon; but shifted back to a Florida strike.
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Jim
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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The last few NEXRAD frames have it straightening out a bit, maybe even a slight left wobble being hinted at in the most recent frame. Yes, it's quickly getting to the stage where the wobbles from one scan to the next get awfully meaningful.
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[witty phrase here]
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VandyBrad
Unregistered
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I was curious about this myself earlier this afternoon and after some googling this is what I learned. In the Atlantic they have 6 lists of 21 names that they rotate every six years. If a storm is particularly historic, they retire that name and replace it with a new one six years later. If there is more than 21 storms in a given year, then they move to the greek alphabet (ie. #22 = Alpha, #23 = Beta, etc.). The most on record in the Atlantic is 1933 with 21 (I think 1995 had 19). The pacific is very similar except that several years ago (maybe 15), they actually got to W and decided real quick to add names for X, Y, and Z... they used all 24 that year. After this they kept the first 21 names alternating every 6 years and added X, Y, and Z names that alternate every other year. If they go past 24, then they will revert to the greek alphabet as well. I'm sorry I can't remember the URL for this, but if you search on google for "21 storms" I think you'll find something eventually.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Keith,
I know you mean well, but right now people don't care that we're getting sprinkles while they're staring down the threat of a CAT IV.. Don't worry, someday we'll get "our storm" (might be sooner than later too); also, I'm not exactly sure what you mean about your comments about the ...they're the best in the business and I can assure you they're not "infatuated" with models.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I know one thing.....I wouldn't use the right now this far out, because it has had right-track bias of late. It has been better the last couple of days, but I just don't think Jeanne has been initialized well, and it may have that problem for a while.
As for worst model performance (sans NGM), the ETA was terrible with . It had it going into the Yucatan, west of N.O., and is still too far left. Even this close in, the only run that was close to verifying was the 6z. From here on out, it is a Nowcast anyway. In all fairness, this model wasn't designed to predict cat 4 storms. Something to remember though for future storms.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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If you have digital broadcast capability and your ABC affiliate broadcasts ABCNews Now, they are now broadcasting the ABC affiliate from the Mobile/Pensacola area. I think it is also available in streaming video at http://www.abcnewsnow.com
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Jim
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Thing about the ETA though was it sniffed out how far W could get. It was (and is) an outlier, but it and the European had their moments.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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THis will be interesting to see how the eye of the storm reacts to the land mass.
As we've noted on his trip through the islands, has always dodged the islands except Grenada.
Even the very Western tip of Cuba, he seemed to side step around.
Now, faced with the continental U.S.A. there is no escape.
I'm sure there will be a wobble here and there before landfall.
I'd guess a few miles East of Moblle Bay.
We'll see.
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RMagic
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
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Quote:
You guys seem somewhat passionate about your rivalries...
we are.....
sadly it's a wash.....they have rix.....we have zook
:cry:
all joking aside tho best wishes to all those that are affected by this thing. A good friend of the family currently lives and works in destin.....thankfully he decided to evacuate.
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Go Gators! (but ron zook makes me cry like a baby)
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HMY
Unregistered
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I've been wondering about the land dodging thing. was so precise around those islands. Is it possible for the hurricane to just skirt around land in the US? How long and far could that last?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It does happen; but since this is almost a 90 degreeangle and there is no real way for it to bounce away from land, they seem to tend to bounce just a little ways. Maybe 5-10 miles max, I would guess. Opal did much the same thing. Looked like a dead hit near Pensacola Beach; but ended up bouncing over towards Ft Walton Beach.
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Jim
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Highest winds on land:
Pensacola NAS sustained at 46 gusts to 55
Lowest Pressure on land:
Grand Bay, AL 29.27"
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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