Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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7AM Update
From the
THE EYE OF CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.
Jeanne is close to hurricane strength...and has continued westward across the Mona Passage.
Midnight (EDT) Update
Ivan now about 50 miles south of Mobile Bay and indeed moving just east of due north - which would make landfall just east of the Bay (and avoid at least some of that flooding). Lets hope so anyway for the sake of those in the Mobile area.
Original Post:
Hurricane
From at 16/03Z:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.
At 16/02Z, Hurricane was about 70 mles south of Mobile, Alabama, moving north at about 10mph. Landfall should be around 05Z near the west point of Mobile Bay with sustained winds of 130mph gusting to at least 160mph. If this landfall point verifies, the backwater flooding in Mobile Bay will be extreme. Expect a storm surge of 16 feet from Mobile to Pensacola with a few spots exceeding 20 feet. From Pensacola to Destin, storm surge of at least 13 feet and from Destin to Mexico Beach the surge should be around 10 feet.
With such a slow moving and powerful storm, hurricane force winds in the area immediately to the east of landfall will prevail for 8 to 10 hours and will extend well inland. For those that are in 's direct path, eye passage wil last about two hours and, except for the storm surge, this is one of the most dangerous timeframes for injury - near darkness, broken glass, weakened structures and downed power lines. Exercise extreme caution should you venture outside during passage of the eye. will continue a slow north to north northeast movement and may stall out in northern Alabama - producing a significant flood event in the Southeast over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Jeanne
From at 16/03Z
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.
AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
Jeanne departed the northwest tip of Puerto Rico around 16/01Z and almost immediately regained excellent structure and began to develop a weak eye. She should aquire hurricane status tomorrow morning. For the last couple of hours Jeanne has been moving due west , which means an almost certain close encounter with Hispaniola and its high terrain. Jeanne is a very compact storm and I expect her to skirt the coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there). Strong Atlantic high pressure, surging southwestward, should certainly delay any turn to the north, so Jeanne needs to be carefully watched over the next few days.
Invest 91L
Located near 11N 26W at 16/00Z and is still not very well organized, however, slow development seems likely over the next couple of days...and another strong wave is about to exit the coast of west Africa. By next Thursday, its not out of the question that we will all be tracking 'Karl' and 'Lisa'.
ED
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
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Event RelatedLinks
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Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
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Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for
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Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
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AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 16 2004 10:54 AM)
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Anyone familiar with the Gulf Shores area...water is covering the West Beach Blvd area per WPMI in Mobile.
Since hurricanetrack was on the beach in Gulf Shores, I think we know where our Isuzu is located. (Under aqua...)
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Minor note: I used to live on the East side of Mobile Bay.. just South of Dog River...
Glad I don't live there now!!!
Correction!!! WEST side... <sigh>.. Dyslexia again...
Edited by rule (Thu Sep 16 2004 03:10 AM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new threat ED, glad you can give Mike a much needed break...don't want to get off ATTM, but Jeanne is a knock-knock-knocking on Florida (heaven's) door.
When are we going to catch a break? By that I don't just mean floridians (of which I'm not one, but I left my heart there) but all trackers in general..if that verifies...but that's for another time.
Anyway, be safe all, means some serious business...if he pulls the vaunted rabbit voodoo hex and backs down to a three at landfall...that's GREAT! I don't see it happening, but then I'm always wrong...so it probably will...
EDIT: I must write new "threat" as often as I write "thread"...damn freudian slip I guess...leaving it up for the hell of it!
Everyone be safe...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 03:15 AM)
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there).
_______________________________________________-
Ok not funny! seriously. My husband runs a hardware store for goodness sake! Do you know what that is like when a hurricane is approaching? And no I don't get a bonus.....
Over the edge is an understatement! darn darn darn! 
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Despite ED.. err... "Eyewall Disfunction", remains a Gamer...
Eyewall trying to reform, still Mobile Bay bound...
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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On land observations:
Highest Sustained Winds 54 mph Dauphin Island AL
Highest Wind Gust 76 mph Pensacola NAS FL
Lowest Pressure 29.15" Dauphin Island AL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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All time worst evacuation remark.
Quoted from a Biloxi,MS television station. Name removed to protect the ignorant. , retired president of Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula, sent his wife and their dog to north Mississippi but said he'd remain in his beachfront home unless winds pushed over 130 mph.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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The last few frames confirm, the eyewall is closed again (though just barely in the southern quadrant). The northern eyewall is still very strong, and nobody has announced indication of windspeed being much lower...
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[witty phrase here]
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Despite ED.. err... "Eyewall Disfunction", remains a Gamer...
Eyewall trying to reform, still Mobile Bay bound...
Dr. Steve Lyons just announced that it appears the the eye is moving further east than Mobile Bay. He currently projects the center of the eye to make landfall around Orange Beach or a little east of that near Pensacola.
That would be good news for Mobile Bay and the flooding situation. However, it could be treacherous for the barrier islands outlining the coast of the Panhandle. We might see more of what happened to North Captiva Island during . It was washed away in the middle and became two islands. I understand some islands west of Dauphin Island had that same occurance in past hurricanes.
The north Gulf Coast needs all our prayers right now...
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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I don't like the sound of Jeanne out there either. I swear, like Ed said, this year Florida is not going to get a breather of more than 2 weeks until December. Sure doesn't feel like it. If it won't be Jeanne, it'll probably by the Invest, or another yet-unseen wave off Africa, and we haven't even gotten to the "Born in the Gulf" (Bad Springstein rip-off) period yet...
On a slightly off-kilter comedic note, I've been watching the webcam on the HurricaneTrack.com site. For awhile, it was normal. Then the street lights went out. Then a bright blue beam from above illuminated these cars in the parking lot. I was just beginning to feel like it was some sort of UFO beaming someone up when I saw this frame appear. (See attachment) Made me crack up laughing - maybe I finally found an alien! I gotta take a break from studying radar and webcams, the stress is cracking me a little.....
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Londovir
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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we'vw had a waterspout off the island here; one tornado off Carrabelle, I think another tornado but not sure where. My cable is down, don't get any local channels (JK's is the closest to me at about 75 mi. away) so no television. I have power, phone (thank God, dsl) and about 13" water under the house (on stilts); highest gusts here have been 64, mostly about 40-mph; heavy rain off and on. The waves on the gulf are HUGE and violent,compared to the norm.
I am so rhankful to be just at the edge.
Still a Cat IV?
And I'm on the very eastern edge of the hw....
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hang on!
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I remember that during Camille Ship Island got cut in two. Those barrier islands really take a hit.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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DPIA1 (Dauphin Island) is dropping pressure like mad. Winds are pretty steep too. Constantly showing winds steady at 61KT (gust 70KT), and the pressure has dropped down to 28.97, and still falling. Storm is wreaking havoc there....
Prayers to all on the AL/FL area....
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Londovir
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
The last few frames confirm, the eyewall is closed again (though just barely in the southern quadrant). The northern eyewall is still very strong, and nobody has announced indication of windspeed being much lower...
Looks like 's last gasp before landfall.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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The SW quadrant of looks dry per the radar image
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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We lost cable way before power. You can use the cable as sort of an antenna. Unscrew the cable from the tv and take that little prong thingy inside the cable and just kinda put it back in the recepter. If you move it around a little you will get reception from your local ABC, CBS, or NBC affiliates. Point the prong thing upwards...thats what worked for me. Its kinda tricky but it does work.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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LI PHIL....has anyone called him? sometimes you can call them...but they can't call you...don't ask me why...it just works sometimes....i work in the wireless field...the phone signals can be diminished greatly with rain, wind, and wet trees surrounding the house.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Okay. Ppl suggested this to me during . Never could get it to work. What do you mean by "point the prong thing upwards"? I know what the prong is... but upwards?
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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upwards once you put it back in the hole. Like....ummmm.....make a circle with your left hand (thumb and forefinger) with the pointer finger on your right hand aim directly in the circle of your left hand. Once its in a little point your finger up to the ceiling. Thats what you do with the cable too.
Can you tell I am a girl? Yep blonde too 
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