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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Did not niss much
      #401 - Sun May 26 2002 06:14 PM

BY THE WAY, i FORGOT TO LOG IN SO I AM THE ANONYMOUS ON THE LAST POST.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Models...
      #402 - Sun May 26 2002 08:47 PM

It looks like we aren't done with our areas of disturbed weather. I'm not trying to be redundant, but obviously NHC reissued their special tropical disturbance statement. Also, they've scheduled a recon mission (invest mission, specifically) for tommorrow. If they find something, they will begin fixes on the 28th or due an invest that day. They must be more optimistic. The low near the Honduran Coast needs some of that convection to it's east. If it can wrap some of that around itself or develop some itself the development button could be "pushed".

Will the low near the Honduran Coast develop?
You may choose only one
Yes
No
Not Sure


Votes accepted from (Sun Jun 06 2004 12:38 PM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Models...
      #403 - Sun May 26 2002 10:17 PM

Unless something drastically happens in the next 12 hours I would doubt that the NHC would send a recon to the area of disturbed weather off the coast of Central America in the Caribbean. At least thats my opinion at the moment ... Obviously if convection flares up again later tonight or in the early morning it may warrant a recon, time will tell. I would think its less than 50/50.

Actually the area in the Bahamas has a better IR signature than that of the Caribbean at the moment. Albeit the area in the Caribbean doesn't have any deep convection associated with it and the pressures have been relatively high all day...

Two areas that just can't get their acts together... hey it's early.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Curiously absent from board.....
      #404 - Sun May 26 2002 10:38 PM

Got a couple of wanna be tropic distrubances for us to monitor the past couple of days and don't recall any posts from Hankfrank... a quintessential CFHC veteran.

What's up with that?
Hey hf where the heck you been dude?


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




Re: Curiously absent from board.....
      #405 - Sun May 26 2002 11:54 PM

i'm here. i've been posting as anonymous. still haven't sought to get that user registration.. i put the info up but then was told to go check my email for the passcode..
i haven't checked my email since late april, when i left school. the quantity of spam awaiting me evokes sheer terror. so that was ruled out.
besides, anonymity has a strange draw to it. for one thing i feel guilty for all the lengthy postings i make (aside from the internet i speak quite sparingly) and like the idea of being able to speak my piece w/o drawing attention... just a quirk of personality. that and i remember a former CFHC resident poster (alternately known as john, paloma, judy garland) who had way too much to say without saying much of anything and don't want to bear sembleance to him. where is that guy now anyway? i guess the cornelius bros. finally put him out of his misery. anyhow ive probably said too much already.
yes i'm here, yes i've noticed that the models have our 90L somewhat overhyped, yes i'm still listening to you all and watching the various weather resources from time to time.
the vigil over an out of season disturbance goes on..


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Curiously absent from board.....
      #406 - Mon May 27 2002 12:59 AM

HF nice to know you still around, and size doesn't matter (regarding your posts... hehe)

Caribbean tonight is about as weak as its been in several days, maybe something will show up tomorrow... right now not looking very promising at all for any tropical development

the NHC maybe more interested tomorrow in the disturbed area NE of the Bahamas as the convection has continued to slowing build over the night....



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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: Curiously absent from board.....
      #407 - Mon May 27 2002 08:34 AM

Ya , curious where is John now ? Hey HF hows it going ?

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




down the road
      #408 - Mon May 27 2002 11:44 AM

as far as the atlantic goes there are still two sheared, broad areas of surface turning, one in the w carib and the other around the bahamas. neither has learned any new tricks, as usual. slightly more interesting: NOGAPS has our eastpac system alma turning northeast with time and impacting the mexican coast next weekend. take away that upper ridge that always drives eastpac storms west and they recurve too, i guess. the timeframe would be somewhere around next weekend. of interest since sometimes the leftovers from eastpac crossovers become atlantic systems (eg. allison, 1989).
rad, frank p, i'm doin good. just waiting for that fellow arthur to wander on stage and put on a show.


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: down the road
      #409 - Mon May 27 2002 11:48 AM

Glad to hear from ya HF. Yes I know only " 5 " more days till the official start . The big A is not far off !!

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: down the road
      #410 - Mon May 27 2002 12:42 PM

I am looking and looking at those visibles, and I can see why they are saying it would be slow to develop. Also, when looking at the WV loops, there is not much moisture out there in the GOM. Looks like a dry slot, although I am not seeing "orange" indicating a really dry spot.

I don't know if it will redevelop, but what's interesting is that in the latest (from yesterday) NHC "Special Tropical Disturbance Statement" notice that they are not ruling out development at all, just a "slow to develop". Also different is that they did not say this would be the "last advisory" (what did I tell you yesterday?)

Anyway...have a great Memorial Day and don't forget to fly your flags for the men and women who have fought and are currently fighting for us. May God bless and protect them from the enemy.



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: down the road
      #411 - Mon May 27 2002 01:21 PM

It appears as if there is going to be NO development from the area of cloudiness and thunderstorms north of the Bahamas. Surface pressures remain somewhat high and there is no low-level circulation, either. The Carribbean system probably won't do anything, either. There's hardly any convection down there. And for the few little "popcorn" thunderstorms down there, they aren't concentrated like they should be. I also looked on the NHC site and they took the special disturbance statement off. Any ideas about that?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: down the road
      #412 - Mon May 27 2002 02:47 PM

Yeah I agree with ya Kevin.... I just can't see to much happening with the system in the Caribbean.... at least at the present time... could change over time but I kinda doubt it...

Heck you never know gang, its possible that we might not see any significant development for days... then again....

Climatelogically speaking I would guess we would have about a 60%+ change of a named storm in June... so something should pan out in the next several weeks or so..

Who the heck knows...


Edited by Frank P (Mon May 27 2002 08:04 PM)


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Greyman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
Re: Action in the Tropics
      #413 - Mon May 27 2002 03:37 PM

Shear is overwhelming our low pressure systems,there is definately broad low pressure in the NW Carribean Sea and there appears to be something going near Grand Bahama but the shear is relentless in both the Atlantic & Carribean at this time.However, a few models suggest general low pressure to remain for a while in those areas though nothing imminent is expected.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Action in the Tropics
      #414 - Mon May 27 2002 05:37 PM

Yep, i agree with you both... although there is still some avctivity i think it is too disorganised and in too harsh an environment for anything to develop at the moment. NRL are still keeping an invest up on the low (90L) in the NW CAribbean, but i dont know how much longer for... although there is some more significant curvature evident in the convective bands to the south of the low so who knows, but i wont be holding my breath thats for sure!

Rich

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
18Z Surface Analysis...
      #415 - Mon May 27 2002 06:04 PM

... shows a new low pressure area developing just to the northwest of the Bahamas during the next 24 hours... it also keeps the NW Caribbean low in the same place with associated trough to the northeast and west-southwest. Of interest tho is the development near the Bahamas, with a large area of convective activity in the region it may be something to monitor...

Rich

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
They snuck in a Joe B update today...
      #417 - Mon May 27 2002 09:10 PM

This is the key tropical component although he does mention a threat 10 days out a little further west than whatever we get out of this storm off the GA/FL coast. I pretty much agree with him that there are 3 distinct areas right now - the upper low pulling out, the convection off St. Aug/Jax and the low pressure down near Central America with the curved signature bands. They all look like eventual NE/ENE candidates to me.

>>I feel that its time to quit monkeying around here and make a forecast, and my idea is for a hybrid type development, not tropical in nature, to pop off the Florida coast tomorrow and then come north to near Hatteras, but turn out, not come up as it appears the recurving Alma will start the progression of the ridge later this week, and since there is no upstream blocking the northern part of the trof picks that up and progresses while the weaker southern part splits for the gulf this weekend. The second part in the western Caribbean southwest of Jamaica is where we have the true attempt at late season development. While totally open on the western side, one can see banded thunderstorms southeast of the low level center so right now we may be in day one of the usual 3-5 days it takes fore development. This looks like it should move north or north : northeast the next few days and assuming the ideas above are correct on changes north of it, it is an offshore problems. I guess in a worst case it can sit down there for 5 days and wait for the next cycle of trof splitting, but I doubt it. Chances are it gets off the playing field and that means whatever mischief that could start next week has to start anew. A case of robbery.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




late commentary
      #418 - Tue May 28 2002 01:33 AM

things are finally looking more interesting tonight. the caribbean low is about the same, but the very fact that the turning persists despite there being removed convection suggests that maybe '90L' is still trying to happen. there is still westerly shear over the system, just have to wait and see if it came overcome.
far more interesting is the deepening low east of florida tonight. the piece of upper cutoff energy is finally showing a surface reflection, and this low has the half-convective appearance of a hybrid. it doesnt seem to be developing in a strictly tropical environment, but mind this system does seem to be wandering westward and the waters out there are marginal. though there isnt a consensus, one of my personal favorites, the NCEP 7day, is drifting it to the coast while slowly deepening, and then southwest inland as a weakening trough towards the gulf.
oh the speculation of it all. had the models been correct five days ago our system would be a gale center lashing the coast away southeast from here.. far as i can see it is just a pesky disturbance showing some signs of life tonight.
anyway whether we have something by friday or not, the 31st is when gray gives us his start of the season forecast. at least we know we'll get something this week.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #420 - Tue May 28 2002 08:59 AM

Just a heads up that a general discussion of Invest 91L has been posted in the Storm Forum. Comments and thoughts appreciated.
Cheers,
ED


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #421 - Tue May 28 2002 09:40 AM

IR loop this morning shows definite rotation to system northeast of Bahamas... Bouys and ship reports off to the west and north of the area's center indicate north to northeast winds.

Lowest pressure I could find was 29.89 inches, pressures were not falling, and winds gusting to 19.5 knots from the northeast. Maybe this was the hybrid system that the AVN and CMC models were trying to predict 120 hours out from last thursday?

From what I can tell system might be moving off to the NNW... slowly

This system has a much better signature than that of Caribbean... at least its spinning....


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #422 - Tue May 28 2002 11:04 AM

Hi Ed!

Where may one find the "Storm Forum" you referred to?

IHS,

Bill


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