CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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Eight day’s before hurricane season and we already have something to talk about.
With an area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The believes this system has become better organized. They plan on sending out a recon aircraft to investigate the system Friday afternoon if this system continues to grow. Time will tell on this one. Keep the posts coming with your great input!
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Well, it appears that we finally have something that truly may be a threat. All we can really do right now it watch the satellite images and wait for more possible special statements from the . If the system holds together well enough, expect recon tomorrow per . In fact, the coordinates as of noon are already down on their recon plan (18.0N 80.0W). 12-hourly fixes will begin if the system develops on Saturday. The huge question is where the heck this system will go.  All I know is that with that trough lifting out and the high building in from the North is that this thing (TD1, ST storm, or even Arthur) may be a real pain in the ass with memorial day weekend arriving. My reasoning is that this high could cause the storm to wander around very close to the Florida Coast (during the weekend) and cause heavy rains and tropical storm force winds. The boaters won't like that at all. By early next week, it will either go inland over the SE coast somewhere and die out. Our other option is that the system becomes stubborn and waits until Saturday to actually develop. In this case, the system could get stuck down there. This would be great as Floridians would likely be spared for their Memorial Day weekend plans (a few showers instead a deluge of tropical rains). If sceniario #2 were to occur, the track of the system would be more difficult to forecast and it would likely get stronger than if it went up the East Coast. NWS offices along Fla East coast seem to say no effects, but I believe they are downplaying it for now. We'll see. 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, just over 1 week before the official start of the season, but it seems mother nature cant wait! This Tropical Disturbance will have to survive the next 12 to 24 hours to really stand much of a chance i think. At present the convection is sheared off to the east, but upper level conditions become more favourable during the next 24 hours. This means that if it can hold together, it may develop further. I certainly intend to watch it very closely, it could be the first out of season Tropical Cyclone i have tracked... who knows 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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best i can figure, there still isnt a closed low down there, just a broad turning trough at the surface. except wait.. westerly wind reported at port au prince... ok, that changes things a tad. could be a bad report, but it does look a bit better organized anyhow. exactly when this thing closes off and starts to deepen, it looks like the upper trough tugging it NE is about to cut it loose, maybe allow it to drift back NW towards florida as the upper ridge makes a return. thats one model camp at least.. quite a few would rather let it just stay out to sea. but theres still so much consistency about it getting better organized that i'm pretty sure we'll have a storm (tropical or subtropical) by the weekend.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I am not a professional but I love weather, especially Hurricanes, and I am glad to be able to experience this season with everyone here,it should be a interesting season this year.The area in the Carribean is tough to call,maybe I'm rusty but first the shear has to end quickly for it to have a chance it would be interesting if it became a GORDON (94) type system and takes a similar path.Lets See.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yes looks as if it is getting some org to it , Appears as though it will push off to the NE .
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Check out the DIsaster Forum. The hosts posed a pretty good question worth responding to if you have made your decisions or are sitting on the fence like me. Also, there was an interesitng note in Joe B's discussion today about early season storms that hit Florida. In all but one of the years (that was 68 I think), the seasons became non-events in the USA. Hope this ain't one of 'em.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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maybe mid-level, eastern tip of jamaica or between there and haiti... have a feeling that recon will find something near the turks & caicos islands tomorrow. by the way, about your final comment steve.. why?
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John C
Unregistered
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I apoligize for this site for running slow tonight. Has nothing to do with this server but the T-1/Router it is connected too. I hope they can fix it in the morning.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Pretty good sat pic here . https://midds.nlmof.navy.mil/loops/i5mugm-w/i5mugm-w.htm
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>by the way, about your final comment steve.. why?
Hard to tell if it was a loaded question or not because I'm not sure who posted it. But I'll take a stab at it. This is in no way rehearsed (e.g. I don't have a standard essay answer), so it's an answer from what's in my head today.
1) I like the excitement. Being weather buffs, most of us do. I don't wish death or destruction on anyone, but it's inevitable over time. Nature's fury is an awe-inspiring thing to witness firsthand (it also makes for good tv).
2) I've never been through a storm that amounted to enough to scare me. Andrew, Juan and Florence (88?) were the main storms I've been through (was only 1 for Betsy in '65) and they weren't that bad. Growing up (late teens/early 20's), we used to have big blowouts for every storm that came through or got close. This was a group of friends that always got together to ride the storms out. We were always left hankering for a little more.
3) I like free holidays - nuff said on that one.
4) I am fascinated by the psychology and stories that come out whenever there is a threat. There is no rich or poor, black or white with a hurricane. Sure, some people may be able to evacuate while others are forced into shelters, but it's a common bond among everyone in a particular area. We're all going to be affected. People put aside their differences and do what's got to be done. If there is an elderly person on the block, people get together to help them tie up their loose ends and bring in their potential projectiles. Everyone talks to everyone else in the stores. It's a neat kind of reaction that one doesn't encounter so often - probably a throwback to neighborliness that hasn't existed since I was a little kid. I also like the wisdom that you get from some of the old timers and people who aren't old timers but have lived through some of the big ones like Frank P with Camile in '69. Plus, even if there is no threat, you can strike up a conversation with almost anyone you encounter and they'll have something to say about it (excepting of course the morons who run around saying things like, "I hoid dere was a tawnado comin' dawlin). Everyone and anyone who's ever lived near the coast has some type of hurricane story to tell. And hey, since I'm interested in hurricanes (duh!) and people, it's a nice way to get to know folks.
5) It's usually a nice break in the summer. 90% of the time, you'll only experience the positive effects of a storm because it's not going to make a direct hit. Cool, windy weather can provide a nice break from 99 degrees and 99% humidity on an August or September day.
I gotta get back to cooking, but I hope that answers most of the question. If not and you want something more specific on any of these points, I'm here.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Same here on the Suncoast Steve. DITTO !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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I don't know folks. Sure doesn't look like this system will do much. MAybe we're all just a little geared up looking for that 1st system.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the reasons you cited make sense. i only threw out the question because your answer ignores the horrific destruction we can sometimes get when hurricanes dont miss. i'm not going to knock you for it, but consider: expressing desire for a hurricane to hit during the regular season when lots of irregulars are on is going to draw lots of flak from people not used to hearing folks say they want a hurricane. gotta admit though, i like the excitement too.
oh by the way this is the long-winded guy who usually goes as HanKFranK. for no particular reason i'm not filling in my username, but hey, are my posts that hard to spot? theyre all dry and analytical, same same.
anyhow our low looks pretty pathetic tonight. surface swirl is moving west in the low levels, the faded mid level swirl is going the other way. might be the end of it, or maybe the models are right and it will keep trying to assert itself. less confidence at this hour though.
lost a contact, time to get lost..
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Boy, looking at the early morning color IRs and IR loops our little tease in the Caribbean is in pretty bad shape.. Shear has pounded the heck out of it during the night. These things go through cycles of strengthening and weaking, and it certainly weakened over the night. Last couple of sat loops give the appearance that some minor convection is trying to build up again but will have a tough time dealing with the shear... Certainly not nearly impressive as yesterday morning... Hey its only May and the jury is still out on this one, however, I'm thinking it just might not do anything... I'll be real suprised if the send recon out today.... just a waste of fuel at the moment... save it for later
Mother Nature.... getting an early start on the season to aggrevate the stew out of us, its probably only going to get worse... 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Great personal indepth assessment of how you feel about storms... I couldn't have said it any better and have some of the same feeling about storms as you stated in your post... Heck I had to read it twice to make sure I didn't write it...:o
Only thing I could add is the fact that since there is basically nothing we can do to change the outcome of a storm, where it will go, how strong it will be, we can at least be mentally and physically prepared for when they strike. And make the necessary intelligent decisions that could ultimately determine our fate in life...Tracking storms gives you just a little more advantage over the non-tracker IMO.
I've been through a plethora of near misses over the years, with Betsy being my first hurricane experience. Ever since been hooked on storms... Faced Camille in 69 as a 17 year old.. Our house was 17 feet above sea level, got 4 feet of water in it.. Been there done that... NO FUN
I now live on the front beach in Biloxi, the house that I bought is 19.5 feet above sea level. When I started remodeling there was still a discernable water line on the back side of the sheet rock... two feet above the floor!
Then Fredrick came, and Elena (first eye experience - absolutely unbelievable. Can you imagine having 100+ mph winds all of a sudden just stop, sun comes out, birds are flying and singing, then you see the back side of the eye wall... winds go from nothing to 100+ mph in minutes and then the storm surge rushes in with such velocity and power you're just paralyzed with fear, not knowing where it will finally stop..... WHAT A RUSH). Then Georges, another eye experience that last several hours but was not as dramatic as Elena but still something that you can never forget...
Bottom line with me now... I don't ever want another storm to directly hit my area, but if the do come (and they will), then I'll know as much as I can about it, and what actions I'll need to take to protect life and property...
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Don't think we're done with this system yet. Looks like it is regenrating. Thoughts?
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doug
Unregistered
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I may be wrong, but the Low the METS are discussing is still forming at around 18/81 near the Caymans...watch the IR and the WV to see how something has seperated from the frontal trough that has now pushed off to the ene...it is not supposed to be "tropical" and not supposed to be of any consequence until Monday...we'll see. EDS>
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