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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28439 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM

You hit the nail on the head with my lack of affection for Accuweather, to whom I used to subscribe to. We, as taxpayers, pay for this data, therefore, it belongs in the public domain. To only be able to get it through subscriptions, would be paying for it twice.
It's bad enough that in NJ you are taxed for sleeping.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28440 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM

Don't want to bust NHC but JB has a lot of guts to go out there and tell his forecast totally opposite of the NHC. I don't think there should be competition between private and goverment forecasting agenices, they should work together because they both have the same goals. It isn't right having two people saying the exact opposite thing. Also, Clark do you right the model anaylsis discussions because I saw your name there?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28441 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM

Truthfully, it all depends on how Accuweather clients present the data. I have no problem with Accuweather putting out their track. I will even note that they have put out a graphic with both the NHC and Accuweather track on it today on their Accuweather pro site. The problem happens when the media clients present the charts and do not say that it is Accuweathers and not NHC's. I can not blame Accuweather for their clients misuse of the information.

--------------------
Jim


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Keith234]
      #28442 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM

I say we all stock up on Canadian Club to celebrate with if the CMC is correct!

Clark, Keith234 is referring to a CMC discussion that was posted in the previous thread; at the bottom it said "CLARK". Keith is asking if you wrote it...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28443 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:38 PM

Thanks Clark...I respect your knowledge and opinion.

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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
More damage from Pensacola [Re: Rasvar]
      #28444 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:41 PM

Apparently not only is a section of I-10 gone, a 30 foot section of the bridge connecting gulf breeze to pensacola beach is gone too. Right now the only way to get to the beach is helicopters or plane. Seems that this storm wrecked serious havoc on the infrastructure of Pensacola.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28445 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:44 PM

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28446 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM

I have a little analogy for you guys. I shape surfboards for both amateur and pro surfers. What I look for is consistantcy(sp) in what i do ...meaning if I shape 10 boards for one guy and 7-8 of them are good then I've been successful. If I shape 1 board that is good and the guy loves it but the other 9 aren't then I'm not really doing a good job. I'm not saying JB misses 9 out of 10 times, I'm saying ,for the people who think this guy or that guy "nailed it" on a particular storm, then he needs to do that on a consistant basis to really be credible. I think the NHC does that even though they make mistakes. Hey they even have enough sense to put a "disclaimer" on their forecast tracks by acknowledging margins of error.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Rasvar]
      #28447 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM

Just wanted to point out I am not taking a side. I think the commercial/acedemic/government issue is one where there is a center ground. The NWS needs to be the data gatherer, central warning site and provide the general forecasts. As such, all of this data should be available to the public. The private concerns should be allowed to give their opinions and do their own forecasting. If they want to go further, they can install a data gathering network, radar network and their own supercomputer clusters to do forecasting. Accuweather and other commercial areas provide services that NWS can not supply.

--------------------
Jim


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Jeanne [Re: Rasvar]
      #28448 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM

Based on 5 pm discussion it looks like someone on the U.S. east coast gets hit. The question is where? The door will be open to the right and then slammed shut.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28449 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM

well if the Canadian hits again with this model run I'll really be impressed... I have not looked at anything lately, just trying to catch up on what's been posted.... and picking up leaves and branches in my yard.... still no power.... and getting hotter by the minute.... sure hope I have power tonight....

took down my plywood on my first floor, second floor, plywood will remain for a while.... not taking any chances until I know what's going on....

the I-10 picture is very similar to damage that Camille did to the Biloxi bridge to Ocean Springs.... but Ivan's is actually even worse that what Camille did, as Camille only rearranged about a quarter mile of segments, none were missing like that on the Florida bridge... although Ivan was not a Cat 5 that certainly was and example of Cat 5 damage in my opinion....


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: More damage from Pensacola [Re: dani]
      #28450 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:54 PM

Agreed dani. I went to the Pensacoal News Journal's website and they have 15 photo albums of the damage (10 photos each). It's amazing. Ivan was a brutal Cat 3 and appears to have wreaked the most havoc so far this year. Depending on Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, the beaches and then points east toward Destin and Seaside, Ivan could easily add another 15 billion or more to 2004's storm $ total.

As for Jeanne, who knows? There is model support for everything from Fujiwara to an intersection of Ivan's remants and Jeanne in the NE Gulf of Mexico. No call here either way, but it's kind of bizarre that some of us could still get a taste of Ivan 4 or 5 days out.
--------------------------------------------------
richie,

Accuweather has a right to do what they want. We don't live in a socialist society where the government gets the say. People know Bastardi isn't the NHC, just an alternate voice or a check and balance. The whole thing played out in New Orleans for Georges between mets who towed the gov't line and those who were rogue. Bastardi is rogue, but he's also the best there is. That's why you see him on CNN, MSNBC and Fox all the time. We live in a free society so the idea of dissenting viewpoints should be encouraged. If you were a subscriber, you would know that he almost always leaves the endgame to the pros. He might have a slight disagreement and say that, but his whole point is that you trust life and limb to the official source - the NHC. Similarly, we don't live in a libertarian society, so the argument that the tracks should be left up to competing corporate/for-profit interests is not acceptable either. But as usual, the system has found a way to maintain a balance between the gov't and corporate domains even though there is some push and shove between the two for power.

As for Baldwin County, if it is as bad as what I've seen in Pensacola, wow. It was very interesting the way the eye came ashore and sort of hugged the Eastern Shore.

Here's a link to the damage photo albums:

Link to Ivan Photo Galleries

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Frank P]
      #28451 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:57 PM

As if the NHC were reading these boards, this excerpt from the 5:00 discussion...

"...this might be a good time to remind everyone that the average five day NHC official forecast error is about 375 miles...in other words...it is still too soon to be sure what portion of the United States might be affected by Jeanne."

If you read the whole discussion, they do sound more confident on a miss for FL but not the US East Coast...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28452 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:03 PM

I, personally, will not feel safe until I see this directional change and it starts running within the envelope. So far it has been just like Ivan, south and west of the envelope. Actually, I am hoping she continues W and tears up her core in the mountains.

I have not had time to look, has there been any model runs with good initialization. Last time I looked, the init points and status seemed off.

--------------------
Jim


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: More damage from Pensacola [Re: Steve]
      #28453 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:09 PM

Steve...Your point is well taken and I believe in free speech. Don't get me wrong, there is no way I think the government should have the final say in anything. However, There are too many people making decisions on potentially life threatening situations to be trying to supercede the "real" authority in situations like these. Lots of people don't fully have a grasp of whats going on and they see that, take it as gospel and I think it's wrong. That is just "my" opinion. Not only that, think about all the people living in the Florida penninsula and having lived thru two storms this year already and the threat of a third(Ivan)...only to now see some guy on national tv with a line drawn through the state. I just don't agree with him doing that but he is free to do whatever he wants. Thats not even the issue with me. He may be the best "rogue" forecaster out there and I won't dispute that ...I just hope he's wrong this time.

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 05:16 PM)


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28454 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:10 PM

Phil, if I remember correctly in Ivan's diss. NHC also mention thier margin of error. NHC are the offical people to listen to, and much more knowledgable then the gerenal public. The real mets, not map readers, who broadcast, will usually say this is what I think the storm will do. I have not heard one say this is what the storm will do!!!!!!!!!!!

--------------------


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Rasvar]
      #28455 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:16 PM

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
JEANEE [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28456 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:24 PM

I will believe in that Northward turn when i see it.... after Ivan... only thing i trust in forcasting... is that no one really knows..

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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RicaGa
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28457 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM

Quote:

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


methinks you should check the advertisements on The Weather Channel.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Rasvar]
      #28458 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM

While I can't put a number on it, it seems to me the models always have trouble initializing things in the tropics. The 2 reasons that I can think of right of the top of my head are: 1. small-scale system on a relative basis 2. sparse data.
In a way, it's not surprising, based on the above, that there are track errors, and it can be surprising how accurate they are at times.


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