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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28459 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:29 PM

Do they sitll have nest-grided models, I have been reading about them, can the computers handle that much infomation?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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RicaGa
Unregistered




Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28460 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:30 PM

Quote:

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone


yeah its not too pretty here. looking out the window. I'm strange though, in that I like to be sitting at home watching this type of event rather than hiding from it. I know it sounds weird but its something i loved to do when visting my dad in south carolina as a kid. they had the BEST thunderstorms.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Keith234]
      #28461 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:39 PM

Yes, the NGM stands for Nested Grid Model. Back in the '80's when I first started using them, there was the LFM and the NGM.
LFM, Limited Fine Mesh
The only thing limited about it was its ability to forecast QPF. The rule of thumb was to halve what it showed. It had major convective feedback problems, and left-track bias, probably due to convective feedback. It has no role in today's forecasting, hence, you can't find it. That's not to say it missed every forecast, but its biases were longer than I am tall it seems.

NGM:
That was considered the stronger of the 2 models then, and it was. By today's standards, it gets little press due to the ETA, GFS, and the new sets like MM5, etc.
It had a problem with cold-air damming situations if memory serves me correctly, and I think it had a right-track bias.
When i was in college in 1987, I started getting the 3 day MRF via facsimili software. Then, that was like a breakthrough.
I provide this as a frame of reference to where we are, from where we've been. Using those models back then really increases my appreciation for those of today in spite of their flaws.
For the record, I almost never look at the NGM anymore.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: MrSpock]
      #28462 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:44 PM Attachment (295 downloads)

See ATTACHMENT above.

I don't think I've EVER seen this big of a disagreement between NHC and Accuwx...this is really going to be interesting to see how this plays out...with all the modeling out there for them not to be closer in their forecasts is amazing...

EDIT: perhaps I should have looked a tad closer, accuwx is not using NHC's 5:00 forecast (which takes Jeanne right to the SC border) and maybe accuwx has readjusted their forecast a tad too...but still...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 05:46 PM)


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
To those who were affected by Ivan [Re: RicaGa]
      #28463 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:52 PM

When a storm such as Ivan comes ashore, one struggles with the right words to say. When you realize there are no words, you find that the only thing left is hope.

Clear Channel Radio has been broadcasting live since Hurricane Francis came through. There have been so many phone calls with pleas for help from people who have been suffering for weeks without power and from those who lost everything.

The thing is that not many people know about it. The guys on the air do though, they have been a literal voice in the dark for so many. They take calls everyday from desperate people asking for help.

Floridians are responding.

They put out a call from a diabetic who needs ice to cool her insulin and an FPL guy brings her a few bags the same afternoon.

A woman's eight year old son is comatose and on a ventilator. She needs a generator to cool his room because all the machines have made the heat unbearable. Someone calls to say there will be a generator there that day.
There are countless stories like this everyday. All of them from nameless faceless Floridians.

Neighbors in Vero get together on the third day without power and decide to have a picnic. They all bring the defrosting food from their freezers and grill it up on a neighbors grill. They walk down to the end of the cul-de-sac and ask my 80 year old mother to join them. They had never even met before.

A man buys Krispy Kreme donuts for a hundreds of FPL guys who are gathered together one morning in a staging area. He bought the donuts for them just to say thank you.

A man in Palm Beach County whose power is back on calls to loan his generator to total strangers. Not just once, but twice. The people who borrowed it had their power restored so the man called back to say the generator was available again.

A tree falls on a single mothers car in Miami and a man calls to say he will clear the tree for her. Another woman calls and donates a car.

A man in Port St. Lucie brings his big screen t.v. out in the yard, plugs it into his neighbors generator and they have a movie night for the kids in the neighborhood.

A restaurant in Broward donates thousands of dollars to the victims of Ivan in Jamaica. Another restaurant takes up a collection of food, water clothing and toys.

As I write this 6 South Florida firemen are flying to Jamaica to assist in the recovery efforts. Ten more are in Tallahasse waiting until its safe to go assist the people who are being devastated by Hurricane Ivan.

Four big storms have come ashore this summer. Bonnie, Charlie, Francis, and Ivan. But, we are stronger than we thought. We are survivors, and we genuinely care for our neighbors.

No storm can destroy that.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28464 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:06 PM

i think i leaning with accu on this one.. not wishcasting.. but unitl i see it really make a move north.. Jeanne may be committing suicide right now.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28465 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:11 PM

Phil, I'll tell you one thing you already know I'm sure. Joe Bastardi believes the models have been trending right all year. Thats one reason why his "official" track is where it is.

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: RicaGa]
      #28466 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:15 PM

RIcaGa... TWC relies on the NHC for their forecasts. They do not generate their own independant forecasts.

What has been discussed is private sector (for profit) firms that generate forecasts for subscribers, including media such as TV stations, that would disseminate their predictions to the public.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28467 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:16 PM

Jeff, just talked to my brother he works in Marrieta and is driving home up to North Ga. Said trees down and ligts out, traffic a mess in Atlanta as you said.
Good news is it should blow through the area by tonight.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28468 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:19 PM

Phil, Accuweather and NHC tracks at least agree that Nassau in the Bahamas will get hit. !!
Boy, I'm sure rooting for the East track out to sea.
I'm afraid it looks more like another US landfall however.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28469 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:22 PM

I vote for the NHC track.... and that my friends is what you call reverse wishcasting.... I've had my full for the year.... plywood remaining on second floor for remainer of September for sure...

damage from Ivan will be incredible..... still no power....but if that's all I have to complain about then I'm a lucky fella... this thing would have continued on that NNW track Biloxi might be looking like Pensacola..... that east eye wall was just incredible.... one thing for sure, I will NEVER ride out a strong Cat 3, 4 or 5 in Biloxi.... nope.... 1, 2 and weak 3 perhaps...


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anonposter
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: RicaGa]
      #28470 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:26 PM

Quote:

The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast.




That's simply not true. For an item to enter the public domain, it must either be placed there explicitly, or according to current US statute, 70 years after the death of the author.

Of course, it may be a work-for-hire. If that's the case, the AP (and sucessors) will essentally hold the copyright forever.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Correcting my own statement [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28471 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:33 PM

I almost expected someone to catch me on this. Internet at work died before I could correct it. My previous comment state outside the envelope. That is incorrect. I should say that Jeanne has tracked south and west of the majority of model guidence. Don't want to leave bad info out there. She has been within the NHC's envelope.

My last comment on this will be this. I think the NHC will always lean toward the course of least regret. Note that they are using a quick forecast for Jeanne right now. If the storm does move at this pace, it will verify. I think others do not think it will move at that fast a pace and will end up further south and west. However, that is a slower forecast. Therfore, if the slower forecast begins to verify NHC can switch to it. This was a similar manner to Ivan. It is a more conservative way of forecasting and there is nothing wrong with it. If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting. I am sure more is stated on conference calls, however, those are not generally available to the general public. When all you get is that the forecast is just to the left of model consensus between A model and B model with very little commentary on why, there are always going to be people who wonder and doubt. That is human nature. However, there is not a whole lot NHC can do about it. If I do have a criticism, I wish they would try to do forecast adjustments when within six hours of landfall. I know they issues updates; however, most of the time, those arestating the obvious.


Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.

--------------------
Jim


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anonposter
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28472 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:04 PM

Quote:

This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public.




You're being polite and tactful. What the commerical interests want is government subsidized weather data - the government pays to put in the instrumentation, data collection, quality control, and turn it over to the commericals so they can turn around and sell the general public the data we've already paid for in taxes.

Quote:

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story.




You're exceptionally tactful. You've said what I've been thinking of AW ever since I stumbled across this site and started reading all the glowing praise for AW. And you did it in a nice, gentlemanly way.

I'm in Tallahassee, too, but I didn't see to much damage - just some limb damage (so far).


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anonposter
Unregistered




Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #28473 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:08 PM

Quote:

Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.




If the 12 and 24 hour locations are significantly further south the forecast issued at 5PM EDT 16 Sep 2004, Jeanne will be a shredded shell of herself. The mountains of Hispanola have done in more than one tropical system.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: anonposter]
      #28474 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:12 PM

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.

--------------------
Jim


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JB vs the NHC [Re: anonposter]
      #28475 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:16 PM

>>> If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting.

That is a fair and valid point, but Stacy Stewart seems to be able to do it quite nicely, thank you.

Just a note that Ivan is not thru killing...if I heard correctly (wasn't really paying all that much attention), Greg Forbes I think just announced that Ivan is now ranked #2 in terms of producing tornadoes! I hate to say it, but when all is said and done, there will be more than 100 dead before Ivan is but a very bad memory.

Matt33 or something like that (I think it's the return of our favorite former poster myself...) opined on another forum: "Do you think they'll retire Ivan". They would have retired Ivan even if he had never come near the US...lets see, Isadore, Isabel & now Ivan. Three "I" storms retired in three years...do we need to worry about Irene, Isaac & Ingrid now?

NHC vs. Accuwx...will be interesting to see how the end game plays out. Jeanne is looking more and more like a US strike...do we need any more? Karl, hopefully, will spin the fishes.

I vote we make the official "end" of the hurricane season September 15, anyone agree?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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darthaggie
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #28476 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:19 PM

Quote:

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.




I'm gonna guess Jeanne is going to skirt right along the coast. We saw similar behaviour with Ivan @ Jamaica. We'll see what we'll see in three days. Things should become a hair more apparent...or scary, depending on who and were...

(formerly anonposter...I signed up...)


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: anonposter]
      #28477 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM

Guys, I gotta tell you. I've always liked Shepard Smith on Fox News but I'm slowly losing respect for this guy. I just saw him say "Next, Jeanne could be headed into Florida". Then his weather guy comes on after him, shows the NHC forecast and says "while it could come into Florida , it's beginning to look like it won't." I couldn't believe he wrecked the story for Shep. i guess for him sensationalizing this is more important than what the experts are saying at this time about the storm. I'm disappointed in the guy.At the same time though, I wouldn't bet on anything til its past.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: darthaggie]
      #28478 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM

Just took a look at Jeane on Sat loop. She is already back over water. She went north sooner than expected

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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