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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28519 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:34 PM

Earthquakes are worse. At least with hurricanes we know they are coming. And although hunkering down in a cat4/5 hurricane with the wind howling around you is a terrifying experience, having the ground beneath your feet sway and shake is an order of magnitude beyond that. I experienced a very, very small earthquake once, and I don't ever want to go through that again. Everything your mind and body accepts as real and solid (the ground beneath your feet) isn't that way any more.

Bill


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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28520 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM

Someone said that Los Angeles was more like a desert which tells me a lot of dry stuff be lying out by summertime under that heat. If it rains than they get the mudslides. Here at least we get a warning...............

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Clark]
      #28521 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM

How many tornadoes did Frances produce?
Beulah in 1967 is top with 115 tornadoes


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28522 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:36 PM

Sometimes I don't know what could be worse. Having a knot in your stomach for a week because you don't know if a CAT 4 storm is gonna clean you out or getting hit unexpectedly by an earthquake. I do know that the devastation from a large earthquake is something I hope I never experience.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Terra]
      #28523 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM

Ivan should move that ridge a bit to the east as it moves up the eastern seaboard -- it's motoring right now, so to speak, and I'm not so sure it's going to stall out over the mountains (thank goodness!) -- but do note that the graphic in the link you sent is best for tropical cyclones with a pressure < 940mb.

For storms more of Jeanne's ilk, try this one: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html (or just click on the 400-850hPa link on the other page). The one you linked to is for deeper storms steered moreso by the mid and upper level flow, while this one is for weaker storms steered moreso by lower- and mid-level flow.

As Ivan moves east, the ridge should move back a little to the east as well -- though perhaps become amplified due to the outflow from the storms as well as an approaching trough from the west (which I believe is stronger than the models accounted for, as it essentially eroded the ridge that yesterday was oriented along the west side of Ivan near Texas & Oklahoma). That provides the conduit for the steering path the NHC is seeing -- but it remains to be seen how exactly this plays out and whether or not the ridge builds back to the west with time to turn the system once again.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: The Isuzu [Re: LI Phil]
      #28524 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM

CNN reported the driver of the truck was in the rig.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: BillD]
      #28525 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM

Avoid anything out there and that includes Alaska and its quakes and volcanic eruptions. These same peepz say Chicago's winters are bad but at least the ground don't shake and the fields are not fire hazards...............

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #28526 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM

Rabbit is right...Beulah holds the record (for now).

Let me amend that post away thingy...Spazz, you should register and then you and Richie can PM each other...I'm not trying to stop anyone from posting anything but now it's getting to be a little chat-room like...

It's easy and free to register...then you can PM any other registered user...hell...some nights I spend an entire evening doing just that and it stays off the main boards...

Thanks for understanding!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #28527 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:41 PM

Don't remember the exact number, but remember hearing somewhere that Frances was tops. The reports I found in a brief internet search say upwards of 90.

Of note -- Ivan has already dropped ~30 tornadoes in the Tallahassee NWS area alone.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #28528 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:42 PM

I gotcha your drift..................I don't want to kill the cool vibe ya got going here so I will cool it. LOL..........I will register too.

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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Clark]
      #28529 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:42 PM

Clark the last I heard was 93 tornadoes for Frances could be more

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Jeanne [Re: Clark]
      #28530 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:45 PM

Thanks Clark... I was using the bookmark I had for Ivan. I did not notice the pressure. The 'correct' picture is a lot more different than I would have expected. Interesting.... So, what exactly do the different steering levels represent? Different altitudes and if so, how do they correlate to pressure (and I don't mean that pressure decreases with altitude... I mean the flow patterns on the graphs)?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Thu Sep 16 2004 08:48 PM)


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tornadoes in Frances [Re: CentralFlorida]
      #28531 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:50 PM

TWC said tonight that Frances spawned 105 tornadoes and that so far, Ivan has already produced >60

--Lou


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Terra]
      #28532 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:51 PM

I am sure Clark can and will give a more indepth explanation. But the levels are defined by pressure, not by altitude.

Bill


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: CentralFlorida]
      #28533 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:52 PM

I gotta give some props to the NHC on their forecast as it might be partially correct. They have it recurving and taking that path toward the border between SC and Georgia. It mainly has to do with the placement of that canadaian high, that strong trough coming into the west , and also the remmants of Ivan. Another hard one to forecast, can't we just have a normal system that is easy to track; excellent year for learning though!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Thu Sep 16 2004 08:53 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
The Isuzu [Re: Terra]
      #28534 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:52 PM

Heh...

Click here for the full dope on the Isuzu. I shouldn't laugh...These guys are trying to gain valuable info on hurricanes...sometimes, though, discretion is the better part of valor.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28535 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:53 PM

I lived in california during the time the hurricane almost hit southern california. I have also been through earthquakes out there....I would personally say an earthquake is worse than a hurricane for the sole reason, the knowledge of a hurricane hitting is usually more readily available than in an earthquake. I liken it to the difference between being rear-ended and not knowing it was coming and being rear-ended and watching the car hit. Both are terrifying, but at least one you can make some preparations for.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Keith234]
      #28536 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:56 PM

Earl was easy to track: shear and westward movement=dissipation

TD12 NRL
note that the winds are now 35 knots on satellite estimate--will we have Karl at 11pm?


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #28538 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:58 PM

Karl will be a fish spinner, plenty and I mean plenty of troughs to make him spin the fishes. I think Jeanne is of more concern and the next wave following Karl, that one looks like trouble.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Karl? [Re: Rabbit]
      #28539 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:58 PM

I will update my signature, because I expect that by the time I come back on here (possibly tomorrow afternoon) that there will be another tropical storm in the Atlantic

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