Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 65 (Nate) , Major: 83 (Maria) Florida - Any: 92 (Irma) Major: 92 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ivan Aftermath
      #28265 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:08 AM

Hurricane Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores, AL, putting the eastern eyewall into the Florida Panhandle, which, by all reports, received the worst damage. Including the Interstate 10 bridge being knocked out at Escambia County.

(Ap Photo)

Reports are still sketchy as people survey the damage but I suspect we'll be hearing a lot more soon.

Jeanne is still being tracked as well.... more on that later

Ivan is still a hurricane, a minimal one, at 11AM, moving ever so slowly through central Alabama.

I am gone this weekend for a family emergency I will be back monday, the others on the site will take over in the meantime.


Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606

Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Dauphin Island Weather Station Reports
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Jeanne at 11? [Re: MikeC]
      #28266 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:12 AM

Where's the discussion...Ivan has been out for a half hour?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #28278 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:24 AM

Spoke to family in Vero this morning. They are still going through frequent power outages and they aren't taking their plywood down for a while.
Family in Mobile, P-goula, and Gautier are okay as well. I don't think they got too much damage. (fam. in Mobile has a house on the bay. They haven't gone to check things out yet)
Still waiting to hear about beach house in PCB............

--------------------
Kelly


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: kelcot]
      #28279 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:27 AM

Oh great. Look at the 5 day for Jeanne. CAT II chugging through the Bahamas on Sunday...ENOUGH!

(At least if it takes the NHC track it may by my headache, not Florida's).

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Pensacola? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28280 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:31 AM

Is anyone else disturbed by the lack of "news" coming out of Pensacola area?
The I-10 bridge is very bad and will take a long time to repair.
I am concerned that Pensacola and the Islands to the SW of there are very badly hit from Ivan.

ANyone have up to date news?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Pensacola? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28281 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:34 AM

TWC is showing video now. Doesn't look too good.

--------------------
Kelly


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Pensacola? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28282 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:35 AM

It took a full day to get an accurate assessment of damage after Andrew, Charley, and even Ivan's destruction in the Caribbean. We'll know a lot more by this evening.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: RevUp]
      #28283 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:37 AM

That pic of the I 10 Bridge is enough to make me cringe...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Pensacola? [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #28284 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:38 AM

Cantore just said that Santa Rosa/Okelousa (sp?) Island is under H2O.

--------------------
Kelly


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Pensacola? [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #28285 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:41 AM

Quote:

That pic of the I 10 Bridge is enough to make me cringe... [/quote

Can you post a link, please?

--------------------
Kelly


Edited by kelcot (Thu Sep 16 2004 11:42 AM)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Pensacola? [Re: kelcot]
      #28286 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:43 AM

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Jeanne [Re: kelcot]
      #28287 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:44 AM

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=

For Florida's sake I hope she doesn't take Accuweather's path.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: kelcot]
      #28288 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:44 AM

www.foxnews.com

The pic is AP copyrighted so I don't know if I can paste it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Jeanne [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28290 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:47 AM

If you extend the strike line Jeane wouldn't be good for the North Gulf state either. It looks like her path would take into the area just hit.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28291 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:50 AM

CHEESE AND RICE!!!!!!! (sorry, catholic. try not to take his name in vain)

This is ridiculas (sp?). Enough is enough.

--------------------
Kelly


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28292 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:51 AM

hey phil, that track is shifted a bit to the left from the last one isnt it?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Jeanne [Re: kelcot]
      #28293 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:55 AM

Quote:

CHEESE AND RICE!!!!!!! (sorry, catholic. try not to take his name in vain)


I love that!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: GaryC]
      #28294 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 AM

Sure is shifted more left (west)...nothing surprises me anymore...I sure hope accuwx and JB are both out to lunch on Jeanne... the spaghetti models argue for a northerly turn though, completely sparing FL...but I would imagine they will all move to the left on the next run (these are from the 18Z).

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28295 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 AM

I don't like this one. I'd like to go with what's behind door #3, please!

I'm in SW Florida and am planning to keep the lanai furniture and stuff inside a while longer.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
News from Pensacola...delayed but coming in [Re: GaryC]
      #28296 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:58 AM

I was watching the NBC affiliate's live internet stream....no videos..bu their reports are out across the area....seems that most Pensacola beach areas are inaccessable b/c their roads are gone in some places....It looks like Baldwin County, AL and the metro Pensacola and beaches took the worst. That I-10 photo is awesome. What the hell was a truck doing on the bridge? duh.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28297 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:58 AM

yes but see Bastardi today who argues the models are right side biased

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Breeezy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28298 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:59 AM

how did Accuweather determine their projected path of Jeanne?....totally different from the track on TWC. How reliable has Accuweather been?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
staggy
Unregistered




Re: News from Pensacola...delayed but coming in [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28299 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:01 PM

Quote:

I What the hell was a truck doing on the bridge? duh.




lets just hope it was on the bridge and that it wasn't transplanted from somewhere else.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28300 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

Just got back from watching JB streaming viedos. Agree with him totally on Jeanne and the whole right bias model thing. I have said this before and I'll say it again, I didn't think that Jeanne would re-curve because of Ivan backing down. The NHC bases their forecasts on models and US models to boot, one of these models being the GFS, which I think has some problems in the whole where it's going to go thing but works great with the motion. My thinking for Jeanne is that she will continue her current motion (maybe even to NNW) and then as Ivan backs down turn west into Florida.

Those two waves coming off the coast of Africa look like trouble. The longer it takes for the first wave to develop then the more likely it is to hit the United States, we'll see. By next week we could very well be seing Karl and Lisa.

Also, Ivan is still pounding parts of the southeast with rain. That high coming down from Canada and the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like. Hope everyone's okay that was in the path of Ivan and Jason's family.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: doug]
      #28301 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

You want to see "to-the-right" model track biased? Look at this link of Ivan from beggining to end....I think it the same with Frances as well....i think Bastardi has a point!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne [Re: Breeezy]
      #28302 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

>>> How reliable has Accuweather been?

Nobody got Ivan right until 5-6 days out...but accuwx had a better handle on it than NHC, in my opinion.

I think JB sees everything heading for Fla now as well as the GOM...let's hope he's wrong.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Ivan Sat Loops [Re: MikeC]
      #28303 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:04 PM


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28304 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:05 PM

Can anyone explain to me why Accuweather would show a different path for Jeanne than the NHC? I mean seriously, how irresponsible is that? The storm may do that in the end but how irresponsible is that at this point? As far as I'm concerned they have lost all credibility with me.I believe strongly that the NHC's path is the one that should be followed. I'll go to my grave saying they know more about these storms and where they will go than anybody! Why in the world would Accuweather want to put something up there that gets people, who are already on edge, worried more than they already are. My opinion...they are totally lame! By the way, my family in Ft walton Beach suffered some down trees, missing shingles and no power since 5pm yesterday. I know things will be much worse there than that but I'm thankful that they were personally spared anything really bad.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Breeezy]
      #28305 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:07 PM

Very good on Ivan, but Bastardi is their chief forecaster on these and he is arguing against the models as being generally biased to the right of the actual forecast path. Part of this forecast is also based on the "noodels wiggling around" on the Ivan model runs past 48 hours and some of them retuning the remnants to the SW which Bastardi said will pull Jeanne westward over the Florida into the GOM
Believe me when I say we don't need that...I drove across Florida to Pt St. Lucie and back yesterday...what you see especially in the 30 mile wide Charley swath is not pretty...absolutely every building with damage even 75 miles inland in that path...something we will see in Pensacola, et. al today, unfortunately

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28306 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM

>>> the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like

Keith, I can assure you that nothing the Mid-Atlantic states see from Ivan's remnant low will in any way REMOTELY resemble what those who just went through hell faced...

Truck on bridge...disconcerting pic to say the least...how was a truck even ALLOWED on that bridge? One can only hope it was there well before it collapsed and it was stalled or something and the driver made it out safely...

I'm sick to my stomach after this...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #28307 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM

Well, if the models are a bit to the right then that would make it go into around central florida and skirt up the coast. Wouldnt it?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28308 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28309 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM

Quote:


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison




IIRC didn't Ivan hit while the sat eclipse was occuring, hence the jump in the images?

Mark


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28310 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

I don't like this one. I'd like to go with what's behind door #3, please!

I'm in SW Florida and am planning to keep the lanai furniture and stuff inside a while longer.




Door # 3 may be worse. If we can keep Jeanne along the coast of Hisp and Cuba at least she won't grow to a monster.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TestPilot
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #28311 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

www.foxnews.com

The pic is AP copyrighted so I don't know if I can paste it.




The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast. As long as it appears on a free info site (like this) there is no problem. Always a good idea to credit the publisher. AP tends to chase folks that profit from their work.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HMY
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28312 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:13 PM

OK, I anticipated Jeanne. I'm anticipating "Karl". But what is this about a possible "Lisa"?! For Pete's sake! There is no rest for the weary. What happens in December that brings an end to this"?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: PFSThunder]
      #28313 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:14 PM

Quote:

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.




Oohhh.... ok....

I had briefly looked back at some previous posts, but didn't see anything about it... Thanks for clearing that up!

Allison


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: GaryC]
      #28314 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:16 PM

I think that's what they are doing, I'll have to check back on them again but I think you're right.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Jeanne [Re: HMY]
      #28315 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:18 PM

I am Lisa... we are generally nice people

ok trying to make some humor

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Edited by trinibaje (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:19 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28316 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:20 PM

Quote:

For Florida's sake I hope she doesn't take Accuweather's path.


Thanks for your post. Potential for big long term forecast error here. Ultimately, we know Jeanne will take her own path, but at least NHC is usually the most accurate.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #28317 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:20 PM

You know something guys? i feel like just about everyone who posts on here knows more than me but didn't JB also have Frances going into the Carolinas at one time? In my opinion, When you place your forecast above that of the NHC's then that is pretty arrogant. That is my opinion and I will stand by it. Anyhow, we will just have to see what happens...in the mean time, this pretty much sucks!.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: HMY]
      #28318 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:21 PM

It just seems that this year has more systems forming but there really isn't. Last year we were up to Peter but that year it was pretty much active all season. This year it had only started getting active in August, so it has to make up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if we did get up to p again but then again the wave train and the waters are losing their energy, at least there's one thing good about the tropics!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: GaryC]
      #28319 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:21 PM

That's the argument Accuweather is making... one other note on this the TPC discussion references the FSU superensemble models also doing this. during Ivan I can remember at least one reference by the NHC/TPC that remarked on how reliable that model had performed in forecasting Ivan.
The main argument is that many of the models sample from the tropical and subtropical regions only and do not register well at all what the temperate regions are doing.
With the gales from Ivan for example...those result from an interaction of Ivan and a high pressure area in the temperate zone.. It is this high that is supposed to block Ivan and push it back to the wsw on the weekend. It is this factor he says is not being properly weighed in the usual model runs that TPC is relying upon.
I don;t know but it makes good discussion fodder.
Don't be to harsh on Accuweather...I'm sure if they did not actually believe what they wrote, they certainly would not publically isswue such an outlook just to scare people.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sprinterblue
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete, Fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #28320 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:23 PM

Looking at the IR pics, Jeanne is very interesting to look at right now. To the right of her is a large area of convection that is not getting wrapped around Jeanne. Seems like if she was stronger, the convection would be pulled around the circulation. Even if Jeanne gets eaten by the mountains in the Dominican Republic, I wonder if this other area of convection will then develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28321 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:24 PM

The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28322 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:24 PM

>>> didn't JB also have Frances going into the Carolinas at one time?

Yep, and so did I...long tracking CV storms have a history of scaring the s--t out of Florida before pummelling Hattaras...(think Floyd & Isabel). This year is changing A LOT of those preconceived notions...that's for damn sure.

As far as JB, he nailed Alex & Gaston way before anyone...he likes going out on a limb and when he's on he's DEAD SOLID PERFECT. Unfortunately, he hasn't been that spot on with the biggies!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: sprinterblue]
      #28323 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM

That can happen, the energy breaks off from the intial system and acts as the shortwave trough, this happened with Frances but it didn't really develop because of an unfavorable enviorment. That's a very good observation!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28324 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM

JB did argue for two days that Frances would go up the coast.
He is admittedly competing with NHC/TPC. Accuweather is after all a for profit corporation I think, contrasted with the NHC, There is money to be made in having a good track record of forecasting catastrophic weather event accurately I think

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28325 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:27 PM

Eulogia - where are you? I'm very North Naples; actually, North Central Collier County.

Karen


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28326 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:30 PM

I'm in Cape Coral - the Southwest portion, right near Pine Island.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #28327 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:32 PM

I think that, for whatever reason, the GFS has had a hard time this year forecasting the intensity of ridges and movement of troughs with relation to the tropical systems. This is in turn skews some of the other models because they use the GFS outlook as part of their forecasting. I'm pretty sure the European and Canadian models do not do this. With that said the forecasts have trended to bring systems too far north too soon. Charley never made it near as far north as was forecasted(though the trough that pulled him across the state was incredibly strong and rare for that time of year). Frances had been forecast for a while to make landfall around Daytona Beach-Cocoa Beach. When in reality she never made it that far north. Ivan had been forecast to pass over Jamaica and in between the Caymans and Cuba. That too did not materialize. I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems. Right now it appears that there is a wide open space off the coast of Florida for her to take, but she needs to get to there before the ridge inches back in. The last couple sat loops I checked it looked like the ridge has crept down as far south as about 22n and as far west as about 72w. This will change over the next few days, and how much it does depends on exactly where Ivan goes and how strong he is while he's travelling there.

--------------------
Check the Surf


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28328 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:36 PM

Quote:

The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.


I think you're confusing NHC with the news media talking heads. NHC had been warning SW Florida all along about Charley, with hurricane warnings in place right up until landfall. It was the news media which focused on Tampa Bay.
NHC didn't have anyone in fits over Ivan - only the TV/radio talkers, EOC folks, and rumor mongers who built everyone up into a frenzy over gasoline rationing and evacuation. What business do EOC and school boards have closing schools for the possibility of a hurricane 3 or more days away? NHC didn't cause any of that!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28329 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:36 PM

I understand totally what you're saying but don't you think that the NHC is really getting all the information they have at their disposal and then putting out what they think is their best forecast at that given time? They warn that their projections can have large margins of errors and to not pay attention to one specific spot for landfall. Did they ever actually come out and say " It's hitting Tampa bay on the nose?' I know with Frances they never gave a specific landfall point until the final hours and they didn't with Ivan either. I know they had thier little line drawn through the cone area but the whole time the local forecasters here were saying" it's coming in at Vero Beach" the NHC was saying "its to early to speculate on an exact landfall point." I know cuz I was reading those NHC updates every six hours. People on this board did pick the right point of landfall for Ivan but In my opinion they are still making very educated guesses(sp). i don't mean to take anything away from anyone on here because I have heaps of respect for the people who post on here. I learn so much reading them but even with that being said in the end I''m sticking with the NHC. I feel on average you will always do better that way.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28330 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:39 PM

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28331 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 PM

One other idea about the models....the FSU Super hadn't even picked up on the MS/AL targetting until about 3 or 4 days out. I distinctly remember Clark on here hinting (cauz he can't say due to nondisclosures, etc) that the FSU Super was NOT forecasting anything west of Pensacola, despite what people were rumoring on the boards. Up until about 4 days out, it was still aiming around the Big Bend area, just like all the other models.

I think, in retrospect, none of the models handled how far west Ivan made it without making its northward turn. Many excellent Mets also didn't see the far westward movement. Once Ivan skated past Grand Cayman, with the eyewall mostly missing it, most of the models began to initialize aiming at MS/AL, and they verified pretty well.

The models are definitely getting better than they were in the past. The human factor, well, that's a different story than the models. I know more than a few people who kept swearing that Ivan was going to come through the Yucatan Gap and turn right into Tampa, or points just slightly north.

Now, Jeanne, well, that's another pickle....I'm going to keep the plywood handy, because I just get this feeling (Jeanne or not) that we're not done in Central Florida yet. Swear this has got something to do with my college graduation. Finally graduate and try to get a job, and all the hurricanes start coming at us....figures....

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #28332 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:44 PM

You're right Phil...It has definetly changed everyone of those preconcieved notions!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: AgentB]
      #28333 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:45 PM

"I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems."

I totally agree with you except this part. You say that Jeanne will not stay further south becasue of Ivan are you sure about that?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: Londovir]
      #28334 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:46 PM

I don't have a real problem with Accuweather coming up with their own track. Using the models, I could probably come up with a forecast track that is nearly as accurate most of the time 5 days out. When it gets within the 48-72 hour window, the NHC has gotten very good. Anyway, I believe the Accuweather should clearly indicate that this is not the official track of the National Hurricane Center. Most people believe it is, then get confused when they see two different ones. This is more of an issue for local stations that use the Accuweather track, and don't tell the locals watching on TV. I'm not sure, but I think the Orlando Accuweather station (Channel 6?) went back to using the NHC track after Charley. I suspect they got complaints.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28335 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:47 PM

RevUp: The forecast path of Ivan on WEd-Fri had the 5 day line consistenly over the west central florida coast or adjacent waters,,,so we were all real jittery. I had to make business decisions on Friday after the 1:00 update and based on that I canceled my trip to Ft. Myers Monday and Pt.St Lucie Tuesday. Schools and Gov. Offices announced they were closed Monday and Tuesday. Turned out that all was well good for us bad for others...but I think you see the point

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
USAF
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Aftermath [Re: MikeC]
      #28336 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 PM

Anyone heard anything about Navarre, FL? Thanks for your help in advance. I'm evacuted to Atlanta right now and I am worried about my home.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28337 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 PM

>>> You're right Phil

No there's a phrase I'm NOT used to hearing

Lets just say that the NHC have done a very good job with their calls at 72 hours (3 days)...and they are the ONLY one to trust for a forecast. As scottsvb reminds us a true forecast is really only out to 72 hrs...anything beyond that is speculation.

wonder if rick still has a boat to go home to? If you're out there rick...hope everything turned out OK...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28338 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:49 PM

Quote:

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!




There are 30 or 40 models that I am aware of used in the North America hurricane realm. There are probably more. Keep in mind that many of them are based on other models, with somebody tweaking it in an attempt to get better. The GFS is used as a base for several of them.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28340 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM

I agree! we have got to separate the media hype from what the actual facts are. I am convinced they just want their big over sensationalized story. Otherwise, why would MSNBC find some meteorolist in College Park, PA showing one model that had Jeanne coming into Florida as if it was written in stone? My wife saw this two times. HYPE...I hate the media coverage for the most part. Because I think their main agenda is their story. i guess I have too many opinions but whatever.HaHa

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:57 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Londovir]
      #28341 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM

Once the NHC reinitialized Ivan after it had continued wes for two days longer than predicted it nailed it on the 5 day.
What happened in the earlier predictions was, as Bastardi argues, the models faild to factor the vigorous ULL in the mid atlantic unti lit had already kicked the ridge controlling Ivan pretty hard to the SW. I took tow days for the effect of that to really register and by then it had spent itself and lifted out to the north, thus making the 5 day run starting on Sat evening reliable.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne - Eye? [Re: doug]
      #28343 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:58 PM

Am I crazy? (Never mind don't answer that) It looks to me like Jeanne is getting better organized as she travels across the Dominican. There seems to be an eye opening up on the IR Sat picture. I know this is counter-intuitive, but...the wrapping seems to be improving as well.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne - Eye? [Re: StormHound]
      #28344 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:02 PM

On the visible the eye actually filled in but it is sure holding its own...good out flow and low level in flow from the SE.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: StormHound]
      #28345 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:03 PM

For another interesting take on models and their future, check out this story on the Pensacola New Journal's website: Supercomputers Aid Hurricane Forecasting. It gives an interesting look at the state of modeling, what they do, and so forth. I can't say that I'm not looking forward to the Maryland model in the next year or two. The Gulfstream Doppler should do a nice job in helping to get more accurate initialization data into the model.

On a side note, and this is the computer programmer in me, I wonder if the NOAA has ever contemplated coming up with a distributed computer based model concept? With the success of things like SETI there's a huge market of computer afficionados out there who have tons of CPU cycles wasting energy. I would bet good money there's tons of people (myself whole heartedly included) who would love to donate our CPU idle time to parsing data for a distributed model system. All you'd need to do is create a thin client for computers to run, allowing them to download "wedges" of grid data for processing, and return the results to the central server. Depending on participation, you could probably jam out a model result fairly quickly. Just make it an experimental model so people don't take it as NHC gospel and it could work wonders. Heck, at USF where I go to college, they leave their lab computers on 24/7. That's hundreds of computers sitting idle, most of which are 1.5gHz+ machines. That's one college campus....

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Will the good news ever end? [Re: doug]
      #28346 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:06 PM

1145z Dvorak's have Jeanne at 5.0/5.0! Folks, that translates to a CAT II...even more good news is that 91L is 2.0/2.0 (which it has been thru two runs)...need to watch for the 1745z posting...

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:08 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sprinterblue
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete, Fl
Re: Jeanne - Eye? [Re: StormHound]
      #28347 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM

stormhound - I agree. the latest loop does seem to show an eye reforming. Jeanne still has yet to go over the highest peaks, but she seems to be a fighter.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28348 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM

Doug, you're right. I was jittery along with everyone else. Some people have to make business decisions based on a M-F schedule. I, like you, take exception when people start blaming NHC for our inconveniences. It seems that as our society "advances," we become less and less tolerant of the "errors" in our technology, especially when it concerns something that none of us can control.
I should point out that at least one school board on the west coast of Florida decided to wait on their decision, and ended up having classes this past Monday. Unfortunately, many people from Florida voluntarily evacuated last Friday to points that are now in the path of Ivan. Go figure.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28349 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM

I understood it, but then again I've modeled chemical reactions using supercomputers for a living so I guess I have more knowledge about these things. That article on forcast models was great by the way. Thanks!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28350 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM

Believe it or not I kinda do...Nah, not really, I'm just a surfer but i do like computer stuff

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: richisurfs]
      #28351 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:13 PM

richie...

good think Indiatlantic didn't end up IN THE ATLANTIC!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28352 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:21 PM

Fort Myers News-Press

This is a link to an article in the News-Press which illustrates some of the confusion with the NHC track of Charley. First of all, the P-3 Orions weren't even flying into Charley for readings. Were there other models that took none of those "readings" into consideration when constructing their own predictions?

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28353 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if the 5PM shifts the track more to the west in keeping with the current models'forecast. No one along the SE coast should be considered out of the woods at least until Saturday night.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:30 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28354 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created

Edited by tpratch (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:30 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28355 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM

thanks for your post. A lot of mets (now-casting) obviously did a great job in partnership with NHC.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28356 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

Phil, I know that! But I will tell you that I was out of the area when it hit and wasn't really prepared for the damage I saw when we returned. I really thought that it would be no worse than Erin in '95 but because of the duration of the storm it was considerably worse. I have a pile of what was my former landscaped yard that is about 20' long and 8' high which is nothing when you consider that people lost parts of their roofs and stuff.A guy I work with had $25000 worth of damage done to his house. A shop I sell boards to here in Indialantic lost its roof and had major flooding inside. But you know what? We actually do still have a beach and we have our boardwalk also which is amazing. So anyhow, Indialantic definetly isn't "in the Atlantic"!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BeachBum
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: I-10 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28357 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

From dani on old thread:
Quote:

With part of I-10 being gone and the fact that Hwy 90 that connects pensacola to pace in santa rosa is probably under water, there is no way to get back to our house.



Alabama SR 59 should get you to the beach. You can catch it at I-65 exit 34.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
2808'56"N; 8035'11"W


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28358 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

Quote:

"I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems."

I totally agree with you except this part. You say that Jeanne will not stay further south becasue of Ivan are you sure about that?




I probably should have worded that a bit better...lol. Depending on where Ivan tracks inland, and how strong he is while travelling, that will affect whether Jeanne makes that turn to the north or continues on a more WNW motion.

And here's my take on the local mets vs NHC forecast. Something that I learned in class at the University of Florida, and somehow managed to remember(haha), is that local news is a huge business for TV stations. Many times that's the only thing that seperates these stations with relation to local markets. I.E. no one really cares that Friends airs on NBC, but they might only watch Channel 2 for their local news/weather. And oftentimes that also carries over into the national news. So if you can capture an audience for a guaranteed amount of time, like 5:30-7pm, that's just money in the bank. I would never imply that a meteorologist would skew a forecast for ratings, but would they cover one scenario that's not as likely as others because it could potentially affect more viewers? Maybe. If a local station can keep a viewer tuned into +24hr coverage when a storm is close because that viewer enjoys the meteorologist's view, then they will be raking in tons of ad dollars. Sorry for the off topic post, just wanted to shed a little light on this topic.

--------------------
Check the Surf


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28359 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:36 PM

Here in Daytona Beach, my school - Embry-Riddle decided to cancel school all week this week .... the decision was made last Friday (Sept 10) ... and we all see where the hurricane went, right? Having already missed 11 days of the semester (which we aren't making up, btw) ... I wouldn't be suprised if they just add a few more days off next week with the possibility of Jeanne threating the FL coastline .... talk about jittery ......


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sue in kuwait
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28360 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:39 PM

Hello all..new here. Watched Ivan on its trek, God bless all those affected. Now watching Jeanne. My family is in SC while I am in Kuwait supporting the Coalition Forces. I hope Jeanne spares the SE coast. Bless all of you for keeping this site informative and updated. I appreciate it!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: AgentB]
      #28361 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM

I don't think thats off topic at all. I feel it totally relates to what is being discussed here. What these newspeople say and do has a big effect on people who could be making decisions in potentially life threating situations.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28362 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM

Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it. Anyways really its just a update from the other day. Its funny that I totally agree with JB on this forcast. Thing is its going to be weakend down to 60mph, or less, until it finally comes off the coast of Haiti and then scrap Cuba with just enough n component to strength slowly. Georges anyone????? Thing is we dont know what can happen really. First off if anyone remember my post the other day I said there is 2-3 scenerios with Jeanne. We all agree that it skims the coast of Hispaniola and is just s of the turks, and ene of Cuba and n of Port au Prince by Friday morning. Now Global models want to take this north to 30N and 75W by Sunday afternoon. Its saying that there is a weakness over florida up to Ivan remenents. (Could be), but I dont think its that far east and also Ivan will be retrogratiing w or wsw back into Tenn by Sunday as a very strong ridge dives down into the midatlantic states. This would still cause Jeanne to move w or wnw slowly into Daytona-Jacksonville area by Tuesday. 2nd scenerio is (what I feel) it continue just n of due w along the Cuban coast ( just north of there) and just south of Abaco isle, Bah by Sat even. The weakness will be further w and slowly beginning to push more w,,although a turn to the NW will be expected and it will be nearing the Keys or extreme Se Florida. Now does it go up the east coast of Florida or west coast before a turn on the west coast up w-central and bend more w with the ridge to the NE towards La? Or does it skim the keys and head out into the central gulf,,,,that is more then 5 days out. So right now I have it just south of Abaco Island, Bahamas on my 3 day track. Intensity is too hard to pinpoint as to how much it will get disrupted over Hispaniola. After that right now its up in the air.
Ivan forcast was 25-40miles to the west of his landfall.Very good for 4-5 days out forcast from last Saturday. Winds 125-130mph called for as Cat 3. NHC had it still as cat 4 on theyre projection but they didnt included in theyre thoughts of the dry air coming in on the west side as I saw weakning the system some. I hope everyone is recovering from this dangerous storm.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Jeanne [Re: erauwx]
      #28363 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM

Well looks like Jeanne could be holding her own over DR. Certainly shows signs of continuing to slowly organise. The core is actually quite small, but not as small as yesterday. Should hold her own as she crosses the land mass, then probably restrengthen over water. I think she will be a Florida threat down the road, with more of a westward motion than currently forecast.

Also noticed in the latest TWO that they will probably start advisories on TD 12 later today. Its located southwest of the Azores and is well organised.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
staggy
Unregistered




Re: next up? [Re: erauwx]
      #28364 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING ABOUT ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
ON THIS SYSTEM.


time to move to Montana. er, no hurricanes there right?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Pensacola? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28365 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:46 PM

Hi All,
I'm new to the site having discovered it during Frances and have been observing and learning ever since.

A friend with family in P-cola spoke with them this AM and the news wasn't too good. Couple of family members are unaccounted for. A lot of homes with major damage and/or no roofs. Trees and and power lines down all over blocking some people in their homes. Curfew put on, telling people to stay safe and stay put. From what she's heard they're in pretty rough shape. Nat'l Guard is already there to help, but can't get across the river due to the damaged bridge. Hopefully somebody has enough sense to get those boys a helicopter or a couple of boats?
Anybody with any other news?

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28366 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:48 PM

Quote:

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Wait Wait..I THINK i got this one!!! I think I remember my son talking about this when he was in the EarthCam program. You let your computers idle time be used to crunch figures for the big program?? I believe there have been several successful programs of this nature.

(jumping up and down...I got one!! I got one!!!)




--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
scottsvb... [Re: scottsvb]
      #28367 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:52 PM

>>> Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it.

Sorry, scott...I'm not lookin' back at them posts no more

Besides, what you said after that was great. Saturday will be the day we know where she wants to go...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: scottsvb... [Re: LI Phil]
      #28368 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM

http://www.fhp.state.fl.us/traffic/crs_h002.htm

Bye all


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28369 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Punta Gorda within the cone of probability when Charley turned toward the coast?

I think when you are prediciting a point of landfall along the coast line when the storm is moving on a diagonal path along the coastline is extremely difficult.

I think the NHC's only fault was not recognizing the turn soon enough.
The local Mets had the turn pegged a couple of hours before NHC put out th word.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
zmdz
Unregistered




Navarre [Re: LI Phil]
      #28370 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 PM

Has anyone heard on the condition of the homes around Navarre? An earlier post mentioned Santa Rosa Island being under water.

Thank you for your help.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Rich B]
      #28371 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:57 PM

I agree that Jeanne is indicating the same tendencies as Ivan. with regard to it's evident predisposition to continuously trend south and west of the NHC forecasts...

I tried to point that out with Ivan several times, noting that New Orleans was at risk, even before Ivan rounded Cuba...

Jeanne is doing the same thing... THE NHC has continued to adjust its track west with each update, and Jeanne is already farther south (again) than the latest projected path... cutting straight west across the DR, rather than turning WNW as predicted...

West, west, west... yet again... somebody needs to tweak their models...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JackF
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28372 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM

FYI The cab of the truck in the photo is missing, apparantly it's underwater... with the driver still in it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: tpratch]
      #28373 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created





Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Intro [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28374 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM

Being new here I figured I'd introduce myself. I've been tracking storms (being a native of south Florida) since I was about 10 (40 now). I remember the pre-internet (and home computer and cable TV) days where all we had to go on was what we were told on local TV and tracking was done on a paper map. We've come a long way in the past few years. Now we can see just about everything the NHC uses for thier forecasts and have the tools to come up with our own.

I was introduced to this site (from a post on a fishing forum) a week or so ago and have been reading every post since. Its nice to see what others are thinking to compare what I've come up with.

Tom


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28375 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM

Punta Gorda may have been within the cone when Charley turned. I have been told not to trust anything in the GOM because it is so difficult to predict. However, Charley turned quickly and at the same time, strengthened from a 2 to a 4. All of the local mets called it a good while before the NHC. At least, that was my recollection. I think that this season's storms have really shown that despite all of the technology, it's just not easy to predict where hurricanes will go, especially several days in advance. I will always err on the side of caution.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Intro [Re: Staggy]
      #28376 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:11 PM

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Using whatever verification codes (MD5 or the like) you want, you can maintain the integrity of the data. Seti does it, in fact, I believe most of them do.

Step one - NOAA gets its data (in the best-case scenario) continuously. They have a cluster which crunches that data and splits it up into chunks.

Step 2
Basically, a checksum is derived at the source (in this case NOAA) of each outgoing packet. Algorithms that create such a creature are plentiful and fairly efficient.

Step 3
Users download their chunks and their desktop client receives a checksum with them. The client verifies the integrity of the chunks and then processes things.

Step 4

The client finishes processing, creates a new checksum and packages the results - sending them back to NOAA and grabbing more chunks.

Step E
NOAA verifies the new checksum, verifies data and then clears the chunk from the "expected" or "to-be-processed" list.

Wash hands and repeat as necessary

But (since I tend to give rather circumspect answers) - yes, you could rather easily maintain security/integrity of the outgoing and incoming data through any number of existing methods.


Edited because I grabbed the wrong quote

Further edited to expound upon my earlier statement.

Edited by tpratch (Thu Sep 16 2004 02:17 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28377 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 PM

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28378 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:19 PM

Totally true!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Intro [Re: tpratch]
      #28379 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 PM

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28380 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:21 PM

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
TD 12 [Re: eulogia]
      #28381 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM

TD 12 has formed in the Atlantic, first advisory 5pm EDT. And the wave behind it also forecast to develop, so TD 13 likely in a couple of days.

Edited by Jamiewx (Thu Sep 16 2004 02:26 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Worried about the opposite too [Re: Fletch]
      #28382 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM

Hearing the complaints against the NHC regarding Charley makes me wonder if we also won't start hearing complaints about the NHC about New Orleans with Ivan. People may start bashing the NHC for putting New Orleans under a Hurricane Warning when they saw very little from Ivan. I think people always tend to bash the NHC when wrong, but tend to give them little credit when correct. They have done a great job this year with 3 day forecasting.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28383 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 PM

Meanwhile Jeanne is forming an eye OVER the DR landmass.

Also, for those who are trying to get information on the Pensacola area...go to the WPMI NBC affiliate website:

http://www.wpmi.com/

The TV station is broadcasting live via the internet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28384 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:25 PM

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28385 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:26 PM

Quote:

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.




Exactly. Mobile isn't a story. NO under 15 ft of water is.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28386 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM

Quote:

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.




IIRC: was not the media focusing on New Orleans This time around? You'd have thought southern alabama and florida were cow pastures from the attention they received.

Mark


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Intro [Re: Fletch]
      #28387 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM

Quote:

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.




Ain't no thang (as they say in the vernacular)

I'm actually enjoying a rather slack day here at the office so I've been lurking a lot more than is usual for me. Between the slow day and the fact that I actually have my power back at home - this may in fact become a regular occurance.

Oh, and call me Pratch or Tom - I figured my dad (the original Pratch) might just want to reg his name here so I left the nickname available. Yes - I realize it's all you have to go on so it's just a way to get those who read posts to know how to grab my attention in the future


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28388 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the NHC did. Do I think the NHC makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the NHC needs to realize that they can get hit!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28389 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Even then, they are missing the big damage that occured east of Mobile.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28390 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Quote:

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.




I remember distictly receiving recon reports that reported winds were up to Cat 4 status just as Charley turned toward the coast. THis was a couple of hours before landfall.
The planes were flying into the storm and were reporting.

At least that's how I remember it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Jeanne [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28391 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 PM

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
robyn419
Unregistered




random question [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28392 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:36 PM

I'm a college student from IL following some of these storms and just wondering if anyone knows how wide the diameter of Ivan's eye was just before/during landfall? Any info would be appreciated!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Jeanne [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28393 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:42 PM

Quote:

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.




hey,

i wwas up your way on sat night of Frances. drove up from lauderdale to shoot some video. exited 95 at delray and came right up 1 all the way to west palm. it wasus in the car and a few tv trucks around and that was it. hope jeanne doesnt come your way.

later


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Couplathreethings... [Re: robyn419]
      #28394 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:46 PM

Man, step away from the computer to eat lunch and a whole bunch of new stuff comes up.

First off, for Eulogia, I'd have to check this but I believe the plane(s)? in question had mechanical trouble during Charley...I know one mission this year was aborted...memory failing...so that MIGHT have been the reason...anyone else recall that and if so was that during Charley?

Second...regarding the NO hoopla...I believe it was the mayor who ordered voluntary evac long before the NHC ever put up hurricane warnings...so don't blame the NHC for that...again, I'd have to check. Steve made sure the storm stayed away from them anyways...

Third...I believe Ivan's eye was approximately 50 miles wide at landfall, though, again, I'd have to check.

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: Fletch]
      #28395 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:49 PM

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Yes... Since each of the thousands/millions of computers worldwide only do work on a small parcel of data, they can't have access to the big scheme of things. Only the "mothership" computer can piece it all together.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Bloodstar]
      #28396 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 PM

Hey! Watch that cow pasture remark! My husband works for a dairy farm. Frances left us a present of over 38 sink holes in their fields. One so big the owner could only decide to fence it off and use it as a new pond once it fills up from all the flooding in our area.

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
new depression [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28397 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:53 PM

TD12 will be classified at 5 pm
12L.NONAME


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Couplathreethings... [Re: LI Phil]
      #28398 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:54 PM

Quote:

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!




I'd suspected as much - but I also figured there would be folks who hadn't a clue about things - hence my long-winded version.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sullynole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28399 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:54 PM

Quote:

Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the NHC did. Do I think the NHC makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the NHC needs to realize that they can get hit!




almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why NHC had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for Ivan. Who did the media focus on with Ivan?? New Orleans... they did learn somewhat however not to totaly focus on the worst case distaster scenario.

--------------------
John


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad
Unregistered




Re: new depression [Re: Rabbit]
      #28400 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:59 PM

SHPS has TD12 at 99 kt in 120 hours. If that verifies, or even comes close to verifying, the only good thing is that it might help curve it north well before the islands. May as well develop it early and curve it away early.....

I think 2 of the 4 tropical models show a N or NNW motion at 5 days (the other 2 keeping it at low latitudes - something like 9N and 14N), but obviously it's too early to tell, and the globals will probably have a better handle on it now that it's initialized as a depression.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Ivan Aftermath [Re: MikeC]
      #28401 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:03 PM

Well, even here in Tallahassee, I'm dealing with the aftermath of Ivan.

Many tornado signatures on radar overnight, leading to a few warnings and a few tornadoes on the ground. None here in the city, though, but in nevertheless affecting others around here.

Lost power around 4:30am when one band passed directly over town, but then went to sleep and woke up about 8:45am to find power on. However, I was awoken for good again at about 11:30am by a phone call saying "how many times if the power going to go out?" Well, it's out until tomorrow at my place, as a wind gust knocked a large branch onto a power line, which sagged and caused a lightpost to snap in half, bringing down the post. It knocked out power and the winds are a bit too high to get up there, so they've told us we can't expect to get power back until tomorrow. Thus, anything on my end will be severely limited until then.

Just goes to show you the effects of the storm can - and do - reach far away from the center. It is an isolated event, but it only takes one branch coming down to cause something like this.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anon
Unregistered




Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: tpratch]
      #28402 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:04 PM

Here's a link for a current ongoing project.....
http://www.aspenleaf.com/distributed/ap-science.html#cpdn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Ivan Aftermath [Re: Clark]
      #28403 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:05 PM

Clarke, What is your expert opinion on Jeanne. Honestly, we just need some waves this time and no "hits"!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Jeanne [Re: sullynole]
      #28404 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:06 PM

Quote:


almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why NHC had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for Ivan.




I live in Levy county in the Big Bend area and they kept telling us practically right until the sharp turn that Charley was headed our way right after it crossed Tampa.

Hmmm...we caught the top half of Frances when she came through, the bottom half when Bonnie went through and Ivan was supposedly on path to us for several days...I wonder if somebody's trying to tell us something???

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28405 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:07 PM

There's support for Bastardi from the Superensemble...the Frances path is not entirely out of the question for Jeanne. I don't know much more than that, though, so it's going to be one to watch. In any case, models are consistent in building in a ridge in the 5-7 day time frame above Jeanne, shifting the storm back to the west...how far up the coast remains to be seen, however. NHC current 5 day may be a bit fast.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ivan Aftermath [Re: Clark]
      #28406 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:08 PM

Clark...glad to see Tally survived the storm....what are your thoughts on Jeanne? What does the FSU Superensemle say? Do you think she will survive the DR mountains? I will patiently await your comments

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: LI Phil]
      #28407 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:12 PM Attachment (223 downloads)

Hi Phil and all. Made it through Ivan just fine; thanks for all of the prayers ! Thank God for that little jog to the east right before landfall (sorry P'cola) Being in west Mobile, it made things a lot better for us I'm sure. Things last night were about 1/2 as bad as I thought they would be -- I remembered Frederic being a LOT worse !! I went to bed around midnight when we lost power and actually managed to sleep through the worst of it. Our power is, amazingly, already back on. I haven't ventured out past my street but I'll attach a few pics (unimpressive as they are). The worst damage was a neighbor's tree that just missed both his house and his car. My yard is full of tree limbs and the fence is a little wobbly, but I am truly blessed !! I haven't even looked yet to see where Jeanne is going; I'm afraid to.

Thanks again everyone for your concern and prayers. How are the rest of the Mobilians ?? Rick ? Cindy ?

Edited by mbfly (Thu Sep 16 2004 03:15 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Jeanne and others [Re: mbfly]
      #28408 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:18 PM

There are three scenarios for Jeanne:
4 models take it east of the Peninsula, get it between Cape Hatteras and Jacksonville, stall it, and move it west

JMA takes it on a Floyd track to a point east of central Florida, stalls it, and moves it SW to take it onshore near WPB

GFDL takes it N of Antilles, into Miami, and up the middle of the state, similar to King in 1950

Most of the models take TD12 out to sea, and also develop two systems behind it in 6 days


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: mbfly]
      #28409 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:22 PM

MBFly,

Glad you're OK...you did get lucky...rick hasn't checked back in, not sure about cindy...haven't been paying close enough attention.

Thanks for letting us know you made it thru!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Clark]
      #28410 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:25 PM

Man, I really don't want to deal with that again. I hope it changes 5 days out or something. You know it really sucks to be getting back to normal only to have to possibly go thru it all over again.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Jeanne [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28411 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:30 PM

I haven't seen the Accuweather track of Jeanne...but as I noted a few days ago, this thing is likely to slow down quite a bit in a couple of days. If Ivan dissipates over land, I don't know that there will be enough of a weakness to turn the storm. A further northward component is likely, but the models I've seen keep building the ridge back in, making me wonder if we aren't going to see a recurvature motion followed by a turn westward. I haven't looked at it enough to venture a guess as to what happens, but the forecast from a couple of days ago of a weak hurricane in the central Bahamas not going anywhere fast in about 3 days (from now) looks pretty good. Where it goes from there...Bastardi may well be on to something, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

And TD 12...unless I see something quickly to change my mind, I think it might well be one for the fish. There are plenty of troughs out there to, in my opinion, keep it away from land. It won't recurve as fast as Danielle did, but a similar track isn't out of the question. But, again, I haven't had the chance to take a look at it to any large extent...and really, I wish this season would SLOW DOWN!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28412 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:35 PM

At times, when the NHC or models have come under fire, I stated that the error in the 5 day forecasts are now what the 3 day forecasts were 20 years ago. That may have been a conservative estimate.
According to this article, the average 3 day error by the NHC has decreased 50% since 1998 alone. They do talk a little about the new Md. model also.
I will not blast the NHC for Charley, they had warnings up for where it hit. The media always focuses on the worst-case scenario.
In this last storm, I will not blast them for their errors due to the size/strength of the storm, and they eventually did get it right. Because it went farther west than everyone thought, that doesn't make the western-most models good at forecasting hurricanes, any more than the eastern most models bad, either. In fact, they stayed too far to the left until it was nearing the coast. The interesting thing is, if we were our parents age, (for those of us that are out of school), there were no models to criticize, therefore, no discussion. I bet they wish they had them.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/9/16/84808.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: Anon]
      #28413 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:36 PM

Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....

Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)

Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)

It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
NWS Melbourne Discussion [Re: Londovir]
      #28414 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:42 PM

NWS in MLB starting to pay a little more attention to Jeanne.

"MON-THU...FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DEPENDANT UPON FUTURE MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE...THIS ONE NAMED JEANNE. SHORT RANGE MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT WNW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THIS TIME...GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK PRESENTS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR THE SE U.S. COAST NEXT WEEK AS STRONG/LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND FAR OFFSHORE...BLOCKING FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION OF HURRICANE JEANNE. 16/15Z NHC FORECAST BRINGS OUTER TS WIND RADII THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND BRUSHING PORTIONS OF CWA COAST MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE SHOWN WITHIN 4PM ZFP/CWF PACKAGE...USERS MUST REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE FORECASTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE INHERENTLY CONTAIN LARGE ERRORS...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: Londovir]
      #28415 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:42 PM

Quote:

Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....

Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)

Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)

It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)





You got the time, I got the beer. My email is in my profile. What I don't mention in there is my knowledge of JavaScript, ActionScript and the like. I'm a good asset because I can code well, can understand that which I cannot code and can package it in an oh-so-pretty fashion.

Off to search for open source modules


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Clark]
      #28416 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:43 PM

Not slowing down it seems and we are not even into the So.Carribean season yet still getting thes African waves, second peak of season 1st week of October....think I'll just leave the boards up until December or first frost which ever comes first.

Good stuff on the models. The NHC two days before the land fall of Charley had it pegged, and then shifted the track west fr 48 hours. When it did The GFDL fixed on the Charlotte Harbor solution, and that seemed to jive with what the upper air as intrepreted from thw WV was telling us the shear zone was too far south to support the land fall north of Tampa.
However Punta Gorda and Ft. Myers had long been not only in the cone but also under the line and the forcast track. On the 13th of August only had Charley about 25 miles off shore as it passed by that to me is a direct hit virtually. I don't recall thinking that NHC had missed the mark on Charley

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: Londovir]
      #28417 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM

NHC does a very good job when it really comes down to it with the landfall areas. But after a 3 day landfall forcast,,,,its forcasts are basically run by models solutions. They pretty much run off the models with some intuition of the surrounding enviroment and other data that we dont always get to see. Main thing is,,when it comes down to it on a landfall within 3 days,,they are generally correct in theyre 100 miles each side of the possible landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28418 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM

Without a doubt we would be in a pickle with another hit on the ol FLA coast......................I am keeping up the boards and headin out for more water and other essentials...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28419 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM

I agree Mr.Spock....totally!!! How about lets take it back even further to the early 20th century when monster storms moved into Galveston TX and the Florida Keys. Most of those people probably just saw thunderstorms moving in off the ocean but the storm kept getting stronger and stronger until thousands were killed. Imagine having to deal with it on that level. We should be thankful for what we got!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28420 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM

Richie what intensity level do you see Jeanne coming at ECF at?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28421 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM

absolutely.......think of all the lives that have been saved just by satellite technology alone, then the models.......How did we ever forecast before?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: LI Phil]
      #28422 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:50 PM

A tense night of watching TWC is over, and now my family sits and waits for word on the fate of our apartment. We live in the Cayo Grande Apartments in Navarre. These are the same apartments that TWC crew in Fort Walton stayed at, only our comlex is much closer to Pensacola, and just across the street from Santa Rosa Bay/Navarre Beach. Based on the coverage we've seen in surrounding areas, we're preparing ourselves for the worst.

I want to thank all of the mods and members on this board. I've learned a (heck) of a lot from you folks. And if anyone in the Navarre area has any news, I'd be greatful if you could pass it along!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Spazz]
      #28423 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:53 PM

I haven't a clue. You should ask one of the more qualified posters on here right now...i.e Clark, Mr Spock or whoever else might be on at this time. They couuld help you witth that question way more than I could.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28424 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:55 PM

I bet we both want to know since your locale is on the coast...............would be nice to get lucky as we did with Isabel but not counting on it.

So putting it out there to the resident Mets..............what are we looking at in EC Florida?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Spazz]
      #28425 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:59 PM

Sure do want to know but once again it's going to be the old wait and see game. I hate that part.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28426 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:01 PM

I don't have a clue right now, and the circulation is on the coast, and isn't acting like it. I never actually never tried intensity forecasts before.
If it doesn't get off the coast soon, it may be inhibited, but it just hasn't hurt it.
By the way, P.R. is still getting hammered by Jeanne's convective tail.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28427 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:03 PM

Yeah sure bites the big one......................would be nice to not have yet another weekend jacked up by these thing dingies.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: Kal]
      #28428 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:04 PM

TD 12 forms, this one I think will be a fish spinner, I mean it has that TUTT up there in the north Atlantic and it gives me no reason why it wouldn't be a fish spinner. Sorry if this was already said haven't had time to read all the posts. Anyway the Gobal models are breaking down the ridge by Japan, that could be a signal that these New England highs will start to die and the pattern will flip. The PNA is forecasted to go positive while the NAO is forecasted to become netural; that should cause a heat streak in the northeast but nothing else. I'm surprised that TD 12 formed so quick, they usually wait till they enter the Leeward Islands. Hopefully this storm will be a Danielle and we won't have to worry about it. There's just to many storms forming, by the time you forecast the one you got two others waiting. Back to the books, stupid math report

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28429 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:09 PM

I just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox News with Sheppard Smith and he had his track up there with it running over Florida into the Gulf again. I don't want to beat a dead horse here again but there is just something about a guy putting his track up on national tv and basically disregarding what the NHC's is saying. It just really irritates me. I know that the potential for him to be correct is there and the NHC's future forecast may end up like his but still......He did make a good point about it going in between Frances path and Ivan's path where the water is still warmer because it hasn't been churned up. With all that being said , he still didn't seem REAL confident in the track after 5 days. He did say he's 90% sure it will hit the US.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28430 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM

I agree, and he ought to put a disclaimer that it is THEIR opinion, and not that of the NHC. Up here, we had a local news station totally blow a forecast and take credit for getting it right just before it happened.......The Ratings Game

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28431 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM

Count me in on preppin for this scenario dude....................at this rate we are sure to be underwater by season's end.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
model performance [Re: scottsvb]
      #28432 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:15 PM

11 days ago I posted on Storm2k , in a forum calling for people to make their predictions as to where they thought Ivan would go, that I thought the storm might threaten the New Orleans area, but I was really leaning towards hiting the Mobile area and maybe 25 miles to the east of Mobile... I think I might have nailed this one.... and one of the biases for that prediction was the model run of the Canadian at the time, which as leaning left with each and every run... so I went with it, and adjusted it somewhat to the right, alittle, as influenced by some other models.... is this more guesscasting then forecasting... naw, because I think they are basically the same provided you have some kind of scientific rationale for your prediction... now I'm not sure how far Ivan's eye went east of Mobile, but I bet is darn close to 25 miles... approximately 11-12 days out on Ivan (not sure exact time period but close enough) the CMC outperformed all other models.... period.... including the FSU SE... my humble opinion only... another note, if my memory does not fail me, the CMC was one of the few models 10 days out or so that took Frances across SE Florida into the GOM....

I think I might start paying attention to what the CMC says on this here Ms Jeanne too....

My wife works for MS Power, she has reports that their sister company, Fl Power has taken a tremendous hit.... employees injuried in their control rooms when the windows blew out, tremendout damage to their facilities.... boy, looks like this area could be without power for a very very long time.....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28433 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:17 PM

Truth be told, I don't have a clue either. MrSpock has it right with the circulation over land and Puerto Rico getting lashed by the trailing band.

The ultimately intensity will likely be controlled largely by the recovery of the sea surface temperatures through the Bahamas after Frances and how fast this storm is moving. There is noticeably cooler water over the path Frances took, and this storm isn't moving so fast. Couple the small circulation with cooler water and slower motion and I would tend to think only modest strengthening in the 1-4 day period is most likely, but this storm seems to be getting better organized over land, may well not track over the same waters as Frances did, and this season has been anything but predictable.

I would go with the NHC's forecast for now, noting that if anything, I think at later periods it might be a slight bit on the high side. But better prepared than anything.

I went to try to sit in on the 4pm conference call, but the NWS guys here are pretty busy with Ivan still -- not to mention Jeanne -- so I decided it'd be best not to for now. We'll all know soon enough what the 5pm brings.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
JB [Re: Spazz]
      #28434 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:21 PM

I give Joe B a lot of credit for his forecasts, he had it right with Ivan. Agree on the disclaimer part, but Joe is not really disagreeing with NHC, his track is within NHC's cone of error. And the NHC has shifted their track a little to the south and west of what they had yesterday.

Although the guys at the NHC are specialists in what they do, even they had to be taught by a college professor at some point, so there are forecasters out there just as good as those at the NHC in my opinion.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28435 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:25 PM

It's one of the big concerns in meteorology and part of the on-going fight between the government/academic and commercial groups in meteorology. The latter think, as a whole, that the government and academic institutions should cease to provide forecasts and information, leaving everything to the commerical, for-profit sector. This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public. Obviously, the government/academic groups disagree with that. Those on the commercial end of things may not have an extreme a viewpoint as presented here, but it's alnog those lines.

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story. The NHC official is the track everyone should go off of and, since they are set up as THE authority, work should be done cooperatively to improve these forecasts. It's fine to note the cone of uncertainty, some of the players that may cause the storm to do this, that, or the other...but don't present your own forecast as perhaps being the official one.

Just a pet peeve of mine.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: model performance [Re: Frank P]
      #28436 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

AVN takes Jeanne towards NC and recurves it SW into Jacksonville in 144 hours; also has TD12 recurving with another system to the SE following a similar course

CMC has Jeanne NE of teh Bahamas in 72 hours

NOGAPS takes Jeanne to NC and moves west to hit northern SC in 120 hours; UKMET follows a similar course


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: JB [Re: Jamiewx]
      #28437 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

I agree but I will say this though...his path down the middle of the cone is not the same as the NHC's so in a sense I feel he is somewhat in disagreement with them. Ok, I really don't know anything this but wouldn't you think that the NHC is putting together the thoughts of a bunch of good forecasters and then coming up with a consensus for their best prediction for the path of a storm?This is as opposed to one guy doing most of the interpreting by himself? Like I said I'm clueless as to how the NHC really works. I just thought I would throw that out there.

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: model performance [Re: Frank P]
      #28438 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

CMC 12Z takes Jeanne through the Bahamas and turns it North and out to sea...It takes Ivan remenants off the VA coast and rapidly NE in to the ATL...no stalling around...

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28439 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM

You hit the nail on the head with my lack of affection for Accuweather, to whom I used to subscribe to. We, as taxpayers, pay for this data, therefore, it belongs in the public domain. To only be able to get it through subscriptions, would be paying for it twice.
It's bad enough that in NJ you are taxed for sleeping.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28440 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM

Don't want to bust NHC but JB has a lot of guts to go out there and tell his forecast totally opposite of the NHC. I don't think there should be competition between private and goverment forecasting agenices, they should work together because they both have the same goals. It isn't right having two people saying the exact opposite thing. Also, Clark do you right the model anaylsis discussions because I saw your name there?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28441 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM

Truthfully, it all depends on how Accuweather clients present the data. I have no problem with Accuweather putting out their track. I will even note that they have put out a graphic with both the NHC and Accuweather track on it today on their Accuweather pro site. The problem happens when the media clients present the charts and do not say that it is Accuweathers and not NHC's. I can not blame Accuweather for their clients misuse of the information.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Keith234]
      #28442 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 PM

I say we all stock up on Canadian Club to celebrate with if the CMC is correct!

Clark, Keith234 is referring to a CMC discussion that was posted in the previous thread; at the bottom it said "CLARK". Keith is asking if you wrote it...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28443 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:38 PM

Thanks Clark...I respect your knowledge and opinion.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
More damage from Pensacola [Re: Rasvar]
      #28444 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:41 PM

Apparently not only is a section of I-10 gone, a 30 foot section of the bridge connecting gulf breeze to pensacola beach is gone too. Right now the only way to get to the beach is helicopters or plane. Seems that this storm wrecked serious havoc on the infrastructure of Pensacola.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28445 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:44 PM

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28446 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM

I have a little analogy for you guys. I shape surfboards for both amateur and pro surfers. What I look for is consistantcy(sp) in what i do ...meaning if I shape 10 boards for one guy and 7-8 of them are good then I've been successful. If I shape 1 board that is good and the guy loves it but the other 9 aren't then I'm not really doing a good job. I'm not saying JB misses 9 out of 10 times, I'm saying ,for the people who think this guy or that guy "nailed it" on a particular storm, then he needs to do that on a consistant basis to really be credible. I think the NHC does that even though they make mistakes. Hey they even have enough sense to put a "disclaimer" on their forecast tracks by acknowledging margins of error.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Rasvar]
      #28447 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 PM

Just wanted to point out I am not taking a side. I think the commercial/acedemic/government issue is one where there is a center ground. The NWS needs to be the data gatherer, central warning site and provide the general forecasts. As such, all of this data should be available to the public. The private concerns should be allowed to give their opinions and do their own forecasting. If they want to go further, they can install a data gathering network, radar network and their own supercomputer clusters to do forecasting. Accuweather and other commercial areas provide services that NWS can not supply.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Jeanne [Re: Rasvar]
      #28448 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM

Based on 5 pm discussion it looks like someone on the U.S. east coast gets hit. The question is where? The door will be open to the right and then slammed shut.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28449 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:49 PM

well if the Canadian hits again with this model run I'll really be impressed... I have not looked at anything lately, just trying to catch up on what's been posted.... and picking up leaves and branches in my yard.... still no power.... and getting hotter by the minute.... sure hope I have power tonight....

took down my plywood on my first floor, second floor, plywood will remain for a while.... not taking any chances until I know what's going on....

the I-10 picture is very similar to damage that Camille did to the Biloxi bridge to Ocean Springs.... but Ivan's is actually even worse that what Camille did, as Camille only rearranged about a quarter mile of segments, none were missing like that on the Florida bridge... although Ivan was not a Cat 5 that certainly was and example of Cat 5 damage in my opinion....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: More damage from Pensacola [Re: dani]
      #28450 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:54 PM

Agreed dani. I went to the Pensacoal News Journal's website and they have 15 photo albums of the damage (10 photos each). It's amazing. Ivan was a brutal Cat 3 and appears to have wreaked the most havoc so far this year. Depending on Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, the beaches and then points east toward Destin and Seaside, Ivan could easily add another 15 billion or more to 2004's storm $ total.

As for Jeanne, who knows? There is model support for everything from Fujiwara to an intersection of Ivan's remants and Jeanne in the NE Gulf of Mexico. No call here either way, but it's kind of bizarre that some of us could still get a taste of Ivan 4 or 5 days out.
--------------------------------------------------
richie,

Accuweather has a right to do what they want. We don't live in a socialist society where the government gets the say. People know Bastardi isn't the NHC, just an alternate voice or a check and balance. The whole thing played out in New Orleans for Georges between mets who towed the gov't line and those who were rogue. Bastardi is rogue, but he's also the best there is. That's why you see him on CNN, MSNBC and Fox all the time. We live in a free society so the idea of dissenting viewpoints should be encouraged. If you were a subscriber, you would know that he almost always leaves the endgame to the pros. He might have a slight disagreement and say that, but his whole point is that you trust life and limb to the official source - the NHC. Similarly, we don't live in a libertarian society, so the argument that the tracks should be left up to competing corporate/for-profit interests is not acceptable either. But as usual, the system has found a way to maintain a balance between the gov't and corporate domains even though there is some push and shove between the two for power.

As for Baldwin County, if it is as bad as what I've seen in Pensacola, wow. It was very interesting the way the eye came ashore and sort of hugged the Eastern Shore.

Here's a link to the damage photo albums:

Link to Ivan Photo Galleries

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Frank P]
      #28451 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:57 PM

As if the NHC were reading these boards, this excerpt from the 5:00 discussion...

"...this might be a good time to remind everyone that the average five day NHC official forecast error is about 375 miles...in other words...it is still too soon to be sure what portion of the United States might be affected by Jeanne."

If you read the whole discussion, they do sound more confident on a miss for FL but not the US East Coast...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28452 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:03 PM

I, personally, will not feel safe until I see this directional change and it starts running within the envelope. So far it has been just like Ivan, south and west of the envelope. Actually, I am hoping she continues W and tears up her core in the mountains.

I have not had time to look, has there been any model runs with good initialization. Last time I looked, the init points and status seemed off.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: More damage from Pensacola [Re: Steve]
      #28453 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:09 PM

Steve...Your point is well taken and I believe in free speech. Don't get me wrong, there is no way I think the government should have the final say in anything. However, There are too many people making decisions on potentially life threatening situations to be trying to supercede the "real" authority in situations like these. Lots of people don't fully have a grasp of whats going on and they see that, take it as gospel and I think it's wrong. That is just "my" opinion. Not only that, think about all the people living in the Florida penninsula and having lived thru two storms this year already and the threat of a third(Ivan)...only to now see some guy on national tv with a line drawn through the state. I just don't agree with him doing that but he is free to do whatever he wants. Thats not even the issue with me. He may be the best "rogue" forecaster out there and I won't dispute that ...I just hope he's wrong this time.

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 05:16 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: LI Phil]
      #28454 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:10 PM

Phil, if I remember correctly in Ivan's diss. NHC also mention thier margin of error. NHC are the offical people to listen to, and much more knowledgable then the gerenal public. The real mets, not map readers, who broadcast, will usually say this is what I think the storm will do. I have not heard one say this is what the storm will do!!!!!!!!!!!

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Rasvar]
      #28455 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:16 PM

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
JEANEE [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28456 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:24 PM

I will believe in that Northward turn when i see it.... after Ivan... only thing i trust in forcasting... is that no one really knows..

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RicaGa
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28457 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM

Quote:

As a business person (not a met) I can attest that there are inherant risks to allowing the private sector to provide weather forecasting. At some point financial pressure will come to bear from advertisers or sponsors.

Imagine if you will that a big advertiser is a building supply retailer (say Plywood Depot)... a large hurricane starts heading for the east coast. Plywood Depot would love to see the initial forecast for Miami... then shifted to Daytona... then changed to Jax.... then to Savannah... then Charleston.... creating a panic and unecessary runs on plywood over 1,200 miles of the east coast.

I think you get the point...Plywood Depot triples sales on the east coast, and the hurricane eventually hits where it would have gone anyway. The same thing could potentially happen if the sponsors were Duracell, Coleman, BP, Chevron, Publix, etc...

Keep the forecasting in the hands of those with no vested interest in the path of the storms...


methinks you should check the advertisements on The Weather Channel.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Rasvar]
      #28458 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:25 PM

While I can't put a number on it, it seems to me the models always have trouble initializing things in the tropics. The 2 reasons that I can think of right of the top of my head are: 1. small-scale system on a relative basis 2. sparse data.
In a way, it's not surprising, based on the above, that there are track errors, and it can be surprising how accurate they are at times.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28459 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:29 PM

Do they sitll have nest-grided models, I have been reading about them, can the computers handle that much infomation?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RicaGa
Unregistered




Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28460 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:30 PM

Quote:

Hey all,

Just got back home after running some errands and sheesh, I thought I saw a man with a white beard walking up Peachtree St.

So far, one tornado touchdown in Carrollton around 2 or so, intense amounts of rain in all of Metro Atlanta from 3-5 inches amd still falling, One major thoughrofare (Piedmont Rd at 8th St) is still blocked with a large tree fell onto a car with an entrapment, Scattered power outages troughout the metro area numbering about 150,000...

The major story is that Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is not letting flights take off and diverting flights away from Atlanta....And it's not over yet

Jeepers, if I wasn't working, I'd have a couple of 7&7's right now....

Be safe everyone


yeah its not too pretty here. looking out the window. I'm strange though, in that I like to be sitting at home watching this type of event rather than hiding from it. I know it sounds weird but its something i loved to do when visting my dad in south carolina as a kid. they had the BEST thunderstorms.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Keith234]
      #28461 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:39 PM

Yes, the NGM stands for Nested Grid Model. Back in the '80's when I first started using them, there was the LFM and the NGM.
LFM, Limited Fine Mesh
The only thing limited about it was its ability to forecast QPF. The rule of thumb was to halve what it showed. It had major convective feedback problems, and left-track bias, probably due to convective feedback. It has no role in today's forecasting, hence, you can't find it. That's not to say it missed every forecast, but its biases were longer than I am tall it seems.

NGM:
That was considered the stronger of the 2 models then, and it was. By today's standards, it gets little press due to the ETA, GFS, and the new sets like MM5, etc.
It had a problem with cold-air damming situations if memory serves me correctly, and I think it had a right-track bias.
When i was in college in 1987, I started getting the 3 day MRF via facsimili software. Then, that was like a breakthrough.
I provide this as a frame of reference to where we are, from where we've been. Using those models back then really increases my appreciation for those of today in spite of their flaws.
For the record, I almost never look at the NGM anymore.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: MrSpock]
      #28462 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:44 PM Attachment (300 downloads)

See ATTACHMENT above.

I don't think I've EVER seen this big of a disagreement between NHC and Accuwx...this is really going to be interesting to see how this plays out...with all the modeling out there for them not to be closer in their forecasts is amazing...

EDIT: perhaps I should have looked a tad closer, accuwx is not using NHC's 5:00 forecast (which takes Jeanne right to the SC border) and maybe accuwx has readjusted their forecast a tad too...but still...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 05:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
To those who were affected by Ivan [Re: RicaGa]
      #28463 - Thu Sep 16 2004 05:52 PM

When a storm such as Ivan comes ashore, one struggles with the right words to say. When you realize there are no words, you find that the only thing left is hope.

Clear Channel Radio has been broadcasting live since Hurricane Francis came through. There have been so many phone calls with pleas for help from people who have been suffering for weeks without power and from those who lost everything.

The thing is that not many people know about it. The guys on the air do though, they have been a literal voice in the dark for so many. They take calls everyday from desperate people asking for help.

Floridians are responding.

They put out a call from a diabetic who needs ice to cool her insulin and an FPL guy brings her a few bags the same afternoon.

A woman's eight year old son is comatose and on a ventilator. She needs a generator to cool his room because all the machines have made the heat unbearable. Someone calls to say there will be a generator there that day.
There are countless stories like this everyday. All of them from nameless faceless Floridians.

Neighbors in Vero get together on the third day without power and decide to have a picnic. They all bring the defrosting food from their freezers and grill it up on a neighbors grill. They walk down to the end of the cul-de-sac and ask my 80 year old mother to join them. They had never even met before.

A man buys Krispy Kreme donuts for a hundreds of FPL guys who are gathered together one morning in a staging area. He bought the donuts for them just to say thank you.

A man in Palm Beach County whose power is back on calls to loan his generator to total strangers. Not just once, but twice. The people who borrowed it had their power restored so the man called back to say the generator was available again.

A tree falls on a single mothers car in Miami and a man calls to say he will clear the tree for her. Another woman calls and donates a car.

A man in Port St. Lucie brings his big screen t.v. out in the yard, plugs it into his neighbors generator and they have a movie night for the kids in the neighborhood.

A restaurant in Broward donates thousands of dollars to the victims of Ivan in Jamaica. Another restaurant takes up a collection of food, water clothing and toys.

As I write this 6 South Florida firemen are flying to Jamaica to assist in the recovery efforts. Ten more are in Tallahasse waiting until its safe to go assist the people who are being devastated by Hurricane Ivan.

Four big storms have come ashore this summer. Bonnie, Charlie, Francis, and Ivan. But, we are stronger than we thought. We are survivors, and we genuinely care for our neighbors.

No storm can destroy that.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28464 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:06 PM

i think i leaning with accu on this one.. not wishcasting.. but unitl i see it really make a move north.. Jeanne may be committing suicide right now.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28465 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:11 PM

Phil, I'll tell you one thing you already know I'm sure. Joe Bastardi believes the models have been trending right all year. Thats one reason why his "official" track is where it is.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: RicaGa]
      #28466 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:15 PM

RIcaGa... TWC relies on the NHC for their forecasts. They do not generate their own independant forecasts.

What has been discussed is private sector (for profit) firms that generate forecasts for subscribers, including media such as TV stations, that would disseminate their predictions to the public.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Damage reports from Ivan in Atlanta [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #28467 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:16 PM

Jeff, just talked to my brother he works in Marrieta and is driving home up to North Ga. Said trees down and ligts out, traffic a mess in Atlanta as you said.
Good news is it should blow through the area by tonight.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28468 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:19 PM

Phil, Accuweather and NHC tracks at least agree that Nassau in the Bahamas will get hit. !!
Boy, I'm sure rooting for the East track out to sea.
I'm afraid it looks more like another US landfall however.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28469 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:22 PM

I vote for the NHC track.... and that my friends is what you call reverse wishcasting.... I've had my full for the year.... plywood remaining on second floor for remainer of September for sure...

damage from Ivan will be incredible..... still no power....but if that's all I have to complain about then I'm a lucky fella... this thing would have continued on that NNW track Biloxi might be looking like Pensacola..... that east eye wall was just incredible.... one thing for sure, I will NEVER ride out a strong Cat 3, 4 or 5 in Biloxi.... nope.... 1, 2 and weak 3 perhaps...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
anonposter
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: TestPilot]
      #28470 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:26 PM

Quote:

The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast.




That's simply not true. For an item to enter the public domain, it must either be placed there explicitly, or according to current US statute, 70 years after the death of the author.

Of course, it may be a work-for-hire. If that's the case, the AP (and sucessors) will essentally hold the copyright forever.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Correcting my own statement [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28471 - Thu Sep 16 2004 06:33 PM

I almost expected someone to catch me on this. Internet at work died before I could correct it. My previous comment state outside the envelope. That is incorrect. I should say that Jeanne has tracked south and west of the majority of model guidence. Don't want to leave bad info out there. She has been within the NHC's envelope.

My last comment on this will be this. I think the NHC will always lean toward the course of least regret. Note that they are using a quick forecast for Jeanne right now. If the storm does move at this pace, it will verify. I think others do not think it will move at that fast a pace and will end up further south and west. However, that is a slower forecast. Therfore, if the slower forecast begins to verify NHC can switch to it. This was a similar manner to Ivan. It is a more conservative way of forecasting and there is nothing wrong with it. If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting. I am sure more is stated on conference calls, however, those are not generally available to the general public. When all you get is that the forecast is just to the left of model consensus between A model and B model with very little commentary on why, there are always going to be people who wonder and doubt. That is human nature. However, there is not a whole lot NHC can do about it. If I do have a criticism, I wish they would try to do forecast adjustments when within six hours of landfall. I know they issues updates; however, most of the time, those arestating the obvious.


Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
anonposter
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Clark]
      #28472 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:04 PM

Quote:

This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public.




You're being polite and tactful. What the commerical interests want is government subsidized weather data - the government pays to put in the instrumentation, data collection, quality control, and turn it over to the commericals so they can turn around and sell the general public the data we've already paid for in taxes.

Quote:

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story.




You're exceptionally tactful. You've said what I've been thinking of AW ever since I stumbled across this site and started reading all the glowing praise for AW. And you did it in a nice, gentlemanly way.

I'm in Tallahassee, too, but I didn't see to much damage - just some limb damage (so far).


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
anonposter
Unregistered




Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #28473 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:08 PM

Quote:

Back to Jeanne, I want to see where the 12 and 24 hour points verify. If they are further south by a significant amount, I have concerns on a Florida landfall.




If the 12 and 24 hour locations are significantly further south the forecast issued at 5PM EDT 16 Sep 2004, Jeanne will be a shredded shell of herself. The mountains of Hispanola have done in more than one tropical system.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: anonposter]
      #28474 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:12 PM

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JB vs the NHC [Re: anonposter]
      #28475 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:16 PM

>>> If I think the NHC has a handicap is they they are not able to write up the discussion levels that someone like JB is able to. JB can get rather longwinded at times. NHC discussion have to be brief and highlighting.

That is a fair and valid point, but Stacy Stewart seems to be able to do it quite nicely, thank you.

Just a note that Ivan is not thru killing...if I heard correctly (wasn't really paying all that much attention), Greg Forbes I think just announced that Ivan is now ranked #2 in terms of producing tornadoes! I hate to say it, but when all is said and done, there will be more than 100 dead before Ivan is but a very bad memory.

Matt33 or something like that (I think it's the return of our favorite former poster myself...) opined on another forum: "Do you think they'll retire Ivan". They would have retired Ivan even if he had never come near the US...lets see, Isadore, Isabel & now Ivan. Three "I" storms retired in three years...do we need to worry about Irene, Isaac & Ingrid now?

NHC vs. Accuwx...will be interesting to see how the end game plays out. Jeanne is looking more and more like a US strike...do we need any more? Karl, hopefully, will spin the fishes.

I vote we make the official "end" of the hurricane season September 15, anyone agree?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
darthaggie
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #28476 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:19 PM

Quote:

The 12hour, I would agree. I mispoke. The 24 can be along the Haitian coast and still be viable; but in a position of concern.




I'm gonna guess Jeanne is going to skirt right along the coast. We saw similar behaviour with Ivan @ Jamaica. We'll see what we'll see in three days. Things should become a hair more apparent...or scary, depending on who and were...

(formerly anonposter...I signed up...)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: anonposter]
      #28477 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM

Guys, I gotta tell you. I've always liked Shepard Smith on Fox News but I'm slowly losing respect for this guy. I just saw him say "Next, Jeanne could be headed into Florida". Then his weather guy comes on after him, shows the NHC forecast and says "while it could come into Florida , it's beginning to look like it won't." I couldn't believe he wrecked the story for Shep. i guess for him sensationalizing this is more important than what the experts are saying at this time about the storm. I'm disappointed in the guy.At the same time though, I wouldn't bet on anything til its past.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: darthaggie]
      #28478 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:22 PM

Just took a look at Jeane on Sat loop. She is already back over water. She went north sooner than expected

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28479 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:24 PM

Hey Phil,

I'm gonna go with the NHC too. Starting a new trend like Frank said, the anti-wishcasting spell. That attachment from Accuweather places landfall exactly on top of my house.
Speaking of showdown time, are you getting ready for the big series starting tomorrow night?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne @ 12 & 24 hours [Re: richisurfs]
      #28480 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:26 PM

Quote:

Guys, I gotta tell you. I've always liked Shepard Smith on Fox News but I'm slowly losing respect for this guy. I just saw him say "Next, Jeanne could be headed into Florida". Then his weather guy comes on after him and shows the NHC forecast and says "while it could come into Florida , it's beginning to look like it won't." I couldn't believe he wrecked the story for Shep.




That is what is called a lack of communication. Someone did not properly setup the tease on that.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28481 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:28 PM

El Duque vs. Arroyo...heh. Game 1 is ours...

Lieber vs. Lowe...heh. Game 2 is ours...

Moose vs. Pedro...gotta go with a push...they've both pitched pretty crappy this season.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled hurricane tracking...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28482 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:32 PM

Phil..sorry to get off subject but I've been a Yankee fan like forever. They frustrate the you know what out of me sometimes though. Almost to the point where i stop looking at scores and standings. I mean i didn't even know there was a big series this weekend. The problem is they gotta score 10 runs a game to win.thats hard when you get in the post season. Now back to Jeanne.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28483 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:38 PM

Glad Ivan is gone, for some of us.
Here's the breakdown from my area. 1 fatality, car vs falling tree, at 730am this morning. Minor wind and tree damage.
South of here toward the coast they have damage from Cat1 level to Cat2 level, as far as I've seen. Some sparse CAT3 damage, this is all based on Video!
Evacuees were headed home this morning as early as 7am.
They didn't appear to be in a hurry , but the 45+mph winds on the Interstate may have been slowing them down too!
Jackson County,MS hit hard. Uninhabitable areas.
New Orleans-Advising peolpe that live south of I-10 to start returning home. People that live North Of I-10, PLEASE wait til tomorrow to return home.
Evacuation Station WWL 870 AM on the radio-All the info you need and much more!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Shep [Re: richisurfs]
      #28484 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:44 PM

I agree that he makes everything very dramatic and it has shown through during this hurricane season. Every storm was going to wreck Florida according to him. He is the weakest link to the FOX lineup and I quit watching until 8.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: danielw]
      #28485 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:45 PM

Anyone hear from Rick? I don't personally know him, but am worried about how he made out.... There may have been a post way back, but I didn't have time to read everything I missed since I left.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28486 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:47 PM

I'm sure I mentioned this last year on here and its a little off the topic at hand but what difference in the approach Japan takes towards typhoons and the approach we take. I've riden out two over there when i was working and they don't even know what an evacuation is. The first one we were surfing 2 hours before it hit cuz the waves were good, then went out to dinner, and then went home and rode it out. The second one I worked all day, rushed to finish up because they kept telling me in broken english "typhoon soon coming", drove home at 6pm with the guy I work for as the wind was practically blowing us off the road. We went to his house, shut the panels, showered up, and went out for dinner right in the middle of this thing hitting us head on. Could you imagine that approach in the US? These storms weren't that strong though...probably only Category ones.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
the rick [Re: Terra]
      #28487 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:47 PM

>>> Anyone hear from Rick?

He has not posted since Tuesday...he bolted the boat though, to head for higher ground, so he's probably OK. His boat may be toast, unfortunately...sure hope not!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28488 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:51 PM

Nah you got to know that Japan is made of a few large sized rocks out in the water............nowhere to go really unless Red China takes 'em all in. I say they got a bad deal all around with typhoons and quakes. I can see you in a karaoke bar while the wind howls outside over there. That ends though once you get a wife and some kids. One than takes less risk right?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28489 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:56 PM

I have a wife and kid. In fact, she was with me over there for the first one because our boy wasn't born yet. The second one she was home with Cameron, our boy, and she had to listen to me tell her all about it when I got home. By the way, we were in a restaurant that is their equivilent of a Denny's. I've been through minor earthquakes, temors ...whatever also over there. Seriously, thats no fun at all.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28490 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:58 PM

Actually I got a good buddy who lives in Japan...they refer to it as "monsoon season"...usually these cyclones aren't too bad (relative term I guess) by they time they get there...he once regaled me with a story how he and a bud (a mate, as he calls them) rode their bikes home 2 miles from Ryungi (I beleive - a "dodgy sort of place" maybe richisurfs can give a better reference) to their apato's (apartments) during what I later discovered was a weak CAT I...they didn't know it...of course they were both 16 sheets to the wind...but still, I guess in Japan they take these things in stride...plus, as Spazz says, where are they gonna go?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28491 - Thu Sep 16 2004 07:58 PM

Man i hope you don't think I was dissin ya.......for sure one has to go where the gig is to pay them bills and all. The waves generated by Japan's interesting WX patterns had to be killer!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28492 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:01 PM

Yah prolly a culture thang over there.........but they take it in such stride and be chillin the whole time while I would be trippin hard while all my stuff got jacked!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28493 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:02 PM

Remember the guys from last night that watched their Izuzu fill up with water?

They are down by the Gulf looking for it now......
I'm not saying anything!

and.....
to the person looking for info on Navarre go to www.sunsentinel.com and look for the Ivan pictures link. picture #39 references it. Here is the quote:

Heavy surf draws a crowd
Residents watch as heavy surf generated from Hurricane Ivan pounds the shoreline at Navarre Beach, Fla., State Park. Residents of this barrier island located on Florida's Panhandle were ordered to evacuate as Hurricane Ivan prepared to make landfall early Thursday.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: LI Phil]
      #28494 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:05 PM

Phil... you might have been refering to the Roppongi(sp) district. To be honest, the Japanese tradition of drinking a few beers with your dinner does help you take it more in stride. The funny thing is though., once these storms go thru, they seem to go thru quick, and its absolutely beautiful the next day. In fact, after the last one i still caught my flight out of Narita the next day. In Florida there seems to be all this left over residue after one goes thru. And you are right... they are generally weaker once they hit up there with the exception of Okinawa.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: FrankP Update [Re: Kent]
      #28495 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:06 PM

I located FrankP's home and work numbers. No answer.
I'll try his work number again in the morning. Maybe someone there can update me. No word on Javelin, but he's close enough to FrankP to have no power.
I am concerned about the others, Rick and everyone, I just don't have as many connections in that area to check on things.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 16 2004 08:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28496 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:07 PM

Spazz..I didn't think you were dissing me at all. To be honest, i love talking about my experiences over there.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28497 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:08 PM

Ah not so sure that is just a Japanese tradition. Me and the guys I room with had our share of tossing beer down when Charley blew over Orlando..............the Asian people don't have the same attachment to possessions that we do.......I think it is a Shinto/Buddhist view or they got great insurance and no killer deductibles!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28498 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:09 PM

the center appeared to have moved north earlier and over water, but is again moving inland and towards the west

Jeanne IR loop

Jeanne radar

it has definately moved west over the last hour


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
The Isuzu [Re: Kent]
      #28499 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:10 PM

>>> Remember the guys from last night that watched their Izuzu fill up with water?

They are down by the Gulf looking for it now......

Damn, that wasn't cheap either...Lowes better not start jacking up the price of plywood to cover that loss...surprised they didn't park it on the I-10 bridge.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28500 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:10 PM

All righty man............it be cool then..........what is the largest wave you did in Japan? sorry Phil but I am curious to go off topic.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: FrankP Update [Re: danielw]
      #28501 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:11 PM

Good Luck, Now- what is going to happen with Jeanne? I presume we must wait until Saturday AM to get the latest trended track; no wonder many shutters are still up in the Fort Pierce area.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: FrankP Update [Re: danielw]
      #28502 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:12 PM

Danny,

Frank P. is fine...he posted several times earlier today...as for the others...not sure. But since Jav lives 2 blocks away from Frank, he's probably OK too.

EDIT: Here's my take on the off-topic stuff...after people have gone thru what most on this board have been thru...NOTHING'S OFF TOPIC...sometime talking about something OTHER than the next potential monster helps people deal...there's gonna be an awful lot of PTS (or whatever it's called) Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome...

As long as you don't curse or attack, I'm letting it all stay up...talk away.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 08:17 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #28503 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:17 PM

Ok, finally took an actual look at Jeanne. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the concentric circles represent increasing isobars towards the center? Wouldn't this show a high pressure area near the eastern edge of Florida/Atlantic ocean. If that is true, why exactly is this storm going up the east coast? Maybe I have no idea what this graph is representing....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28504 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:18 PM

Phil...I'll go off topic this one last time to answer Spazz's question. The waves over there are similiar to here in that they are wind swell generated mostly from local storms and not the long distance ground swells that California or Hawaii gets. The waves I rode on the Sunday before that last typhoon hit that I spoke of, which was on a monday nite, were a solid 6ft. and good. Now back to Jeanne.

Richie, check my last post (I edited it)...it's cool right now...

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 08:24 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Keith234]
      #28505 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:19 PM

No, that's not me writing those discussions.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Terra]
      #28506 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:19 PM

There is a high there
Ivan is moving east, and pushing the high east, and is what is going to pull Jeanne to the north while it is in the Atlantic


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #28507 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:22 PM

It be a waiting game between now and Monday.......2 to see just how far north this baby goes.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #28508 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:22 PM

Quote:

There is a high there
Ivan is moving east, and pushing the high east, and is what is going to pull Jeanne to the north while it is in the Atlantic




Ok, I get it... Thanks. The water vapor wasn't very helpful to me since Ivan takes up so much area. I wish those wind diagrams came in loops.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #28509 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM

If there has been a trend this season, it has been coast hugging and bouncing storms.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: The Isuzu [Re: LI Phil]
      #28510 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM

Do you think the Isuzu had anything to do with the I-10 bridge getting knocked out? I did see a pic of a truck on the bridge, at the hole!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #28511 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:23 PM

a high is going to build in.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28512 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:25 PM

It is fun to watch the surfers..........too bad I am scared of sharks and whatever else be prowling around. Never been to Cali.............I imagine surfer's paradise since I don't think they get hurricanes right?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #28513 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:25 PM

So if Ivan's #2, that means the top 2 tornado-producing hurricanes would both have come from this season -- Frances is number one.

Sheesh. What a season.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Rasvar]
      #28514 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:28 PM


Remember though something I learned on TWC....should this baby do the groove on our FL east coast that her more dangerous NW quad will be not facing us.. All bets are off on that protection should she turn in and there goes my power again for time number 3.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28515 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:28 PM

No hurricanes...although I seem to remember a few years back one developed off Mexico and actually was threatening souhtern Cali. Never hit though...does anyone else remember that?They get earthquakes though...I don't know whats worse.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: The Isuzu [Re: danielw]
      #28516 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:30 PM

Danny,

>>> Do you think the Isuzu had anything to do with the I-10 bridge getting knocked out? I did see a pic of a truck on the bridge, at the hole!

LOL! No, I was cracking wise...perhaps not the best time to do so...it just amazes me what people will do to try to get a story...someone last night said it's going to take a piece of sheet metal going thru a reporter during a live feed to make the networks rethink their policy of reporting live from a storm from such dangerous locations. In the case of the hurricanetrack.com vehicle (the Isuzu), it was loaded with a bunch of sensitive hurricane recording data...as it has been in past storms...and "anchored" to the ground...no one was in the vehicle of course...you had to figure that at some point they'd park the vehicle just a little too close to the danger zone...I haven't checked the website, but I'm guessing that's what's happened here.

As for the tractor trailor on the bridge, I offered my theory earlier today...it stalled or something, and the driver bolted...I cannot imagine that they would permit a vehicle like that to CROSS the bridge with winds that would surely blow it over the side...someone said the cab and driver are in the water...sure hope not...it was just such a riviting shot (photograph) I tried to equate the Lowe's Isuzu placement with the semi on the bridge...didn't do it too well, I guess.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28517 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:30 PM

Oh yeah..they also get terrible fires..another thing that you can't really say what is worse

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28518 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:31 PM

You seen Rush Hour? A hurricane would seriously put a lot of LA on the history channel............so many hills in one place and they aint those little mole hills like in the panhandle either.

I heard about the Northridge quake of 94, was living in Chi-town at the time.....man was I greatful to not be living out there..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28519 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:34 PM

Earthquakes are worse. At least with hurricanes we know they are coming. And although hunkering down in a cat4/5 hurricane with the wind howling around you is a terrifying experience, having the ground beneath your feet sway and shake is an order of magnitude beyond that. I experienced a very, very small earthquake once, and I don't ever want to go through that again. Everything your mind and body accepts as real and solid (the ground beneath your feet) isn't that way any more.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: richisurfs]
      #28520 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM

Someone said that Los Angeles was more like a desert which tells me a lot of dry stuff be lying out by summertime under that heat. If it rains than they get the mudslides. Here at least we get a warning...............

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Clark]
      #28521 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:35 PM

How many tornadoes did Frances produce?
Beulah in 1967 is top with 115 tornadoes


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: Spazz]
      #28522 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:36 PM

Sometimes I don't know what could be worse. Having a knot in your stomach for a week because you don't know if a CAT 4 storm is gonna clean you out or getting hit unexpectedly by an earthquake. I do know that the devastation from a large earthquake is something I hope I never experience.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Terra]
      #28523 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM

Ivan should move that ridge a bit to the east as it moves up the eastern seaboard -- it's motoring right now, so to speak, and I'm not so sure it's going to stall out over the mountains (thank goodness!) -- but do note that the graphic in the link you sent is best for tropical cyclones with a pressure < 940mb.

For storms more of Jeanne's ilk, try this one: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html (or just click on the 400-850hPa link on the other page). The one you linked to is for deeper storms steered moreso by the mid and upper level flow, while this one is for weaker storms steered moreso by lower- and mid-level flow.

As Ivan moves east, the ridge should move back a little to the east as well -- though perhaps become amplified due to the outflow from the storms as well as an approaching trough from the west (which I believe is stronger than the models accounted for, as it essentially eroded the ridge that yesterday was oriented along the west side of Ivan near Texas & Oklahoma). That provides the conduit for the steering path the NHC is seeing -- but it remains to be seen how exactly this plays out and whether or not the ridge builds back to the west with time to turn the system once again.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: The Isuzu [Re: LI Phil]
      #28524 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:37 PM

CNN reported the driver of the truck was in the rig.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Spazz
Unregistered




Re: SHOWDOWN TIME [Re: BillD]
      #28525 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM

Avoid anything out there and that includes Alaska and its quakes and volcanic eruptions. These same peepz say Chicago's winters are bad but at least the ground don't shake and the fields are not fire hazards...............

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #28526 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:38 PM

Rabbit is right...Beulah holds the record (for now).

Let me amend that post away thingy...Spazz, you should register and then you and Richie can PM each other...I'm not trying to stop anyone from posting anything but now it's getting to be a little chat-room like...

It's easy and free to register...then you can PM any other registered user...hell...some nights I spend an entire evening doing just that and it stays off the main boards...

Thanks for understanding!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: JB vs the NHC [Re: