CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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11am (eastern) Update :
Tropical Storm Fay is Strengthening winds are now up to 60mph and its moving west at 2mph. Texas coast needs to keep a very close eye on this storm. Fay could become a Hurricane very soon.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT OCONNOR
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
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Original Post:
Tropical Storm Fay continues to meander I the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Mata Gorda, Texas to Interacoastal City, Louisiana.
More to come…..
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Wake Up guys. this thing is starting to wrap. pressures are dropping
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Fay has that home grown look this morning, but she is getting better organized with impressive pressure falls this morning approaching 1000mb. Looks like hurricane watches are coming up along the Texas coast.
Winds up to 55mph can she become a hurricane ?
Houstontracker
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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winds at 60mph
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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too much dry air in her,,she is barely a TS, defidently not a hurricane.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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radar pres. has improved this morning. dominant center is at the northeast end of the broad low level core, tightening up. the open-looking sw quadrant is a result of land proximity, with the storm drawing inflow from semiarid texas... and probably more so the shear from the upper low over texas. have to wonder how much effect edouard has had on fay's movement, as it has been slowing the easterly flow. edouard looks to be opening up, so agree with the declassification.
here's my philosophy on fay: pressure keeps falling and center comes to resemble a more classic as the system nears hurricane strength. probably become a minimal hurricane and move onshore near port lavaca or victoria, but skim the coast and bend sw slowly. lots of rain for the kiddies in central texas.
models still calling for a low to form somewhere between the bahamas and bermuda, develop into a tropical cyclone. several show it pumping the ridge and bending towards the west. possiblity it will hit the east coast early or middle next week. exact development location, track, intensity up in the air.. waiting to see where it tries to pop. some want to develop a binary system, or one with subtropical features.
95L is turning N into the central atlantic trough as it pulls away. presentation the same.. well defined low level swirl with transient convection. still has a decent chance of becoming a classified system.
south of 95L the low level swirl is reorganized into a broad turning axis.. low shear but scant convection. centered around 17/47.. level of definition essentially the same as in previous days. tracking wnw, downstream environment looks decent. another thing to watch.
the much hyped wave/low is offshore nearing 20w, looking quite well defined. taking a southerly track as well, it seems. should be an invest tomorrow.
G and H storms should come out of all this mess... likely. possibility of only one, or maybe 3.. but unlikely none.
HF 1657z06september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Fay has a 1000mb low pressure to her and is located Sw of the area that frank just posted, center he sees is the mid level low. Great observations he has on the systems out there. I like to see his posts. Alot of good info.
Anyways, fay still very elongated and moving eraticly with a slow w movement to come onshore about 50 miles Sw of galvestine island as a moderate TS early saturday. Plenty of moisture and moderate winds in squalls and she moves onshore.Expect brief tornados in the squal lines.Rainfall up to 6-8 inches near the center of landfall and the track of Fay. Also 2 other systems to note, the first one briefly has a low center to it off the african coast, it could be a TD by later in the weekend moving just n of due west. The other and more importantly my earlier call on the first Huricane of the season should be forming ENE of the Bahamas near 27N and 71W. Most models form this into a depression by Sunday morning, infact recon by Sunday might find it a Tropical storm which then should be a hurricane by Monday. I expect winds to increase as high as 100-110 mph closing in on a Cat 3 by Tues morning. Models at first showed a west track into fl and the gulf, then turned around to a N then w turn to threaten the carolinas. Hard to figure out this one where the center is not exactly pinpointed yet. A huge ridge as forcasted wil come down early next week and push the hurricane off to the west and should make the eastern US under hurricane watches. The forcast is very hard here and is up in the air. As we can see it 2 things can happen. 1 He forms around the above cor and moves slightly nw into early next week to near 29-30N and 74 W and becomes a hurricane later on Monday. The ridge builds in stronger and pushes him W to the S carolina coast. The Ridge can also build in alittle quicker and stronger and push the hurricane more W and just S of there threatening the same area as Eduardo. 2 things can happen and also exactly where the center forms and how strong and fast the ridge to his NW builds in. Update more on Sat or Sunday on this, scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter,,,,,,, my person site is back on. Alot of good discussion pages and model input.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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interesting note on the current run. scott mentioned a storm maybe running up to the NC coast . well on that run there is also a low shown that forms in the gulf just off the sw coast of fl,heads up and nne acroos the state.
check it out, at least for time killing sake
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090612-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Looks like this increase in moisture and insanely heavy rain going on downtown right now is some of the energy from Edouard. It's not apparent on the sats, but if you look at the radars, you can see it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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steve
I think that is radar link shows part of ed getting caught up in the circulation of Fay .
lot of rain there!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Is the African wave you see moving "" N of due West" the same one HankFrank sees moving south???
cc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Need we say more?
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like from plotting the recon and bouy reports that the best guess for a center is near the 's 1pm position, maybe a little south of there. Looks like they are closing in on a definite center so maybe we will have a vortex message this afternoon. One of the recon reports had a pressure of 999mb so I guess we have our first storm below 1000mb.
To me Fay has that look you get when a storm forms so close to the coast here in Texas. (dry air flowing in from the west) If It hangs around long enough maybe it will be able to completely wrap around.
Here in Spring on the north side of Houston it's a little windy and very cloudy. Kind of pleasant outside, i'm gonna go cut my grass before the rain gets here.
Hey Steve, looks like New Orleans is getting it pretty good right now.
Houstontracker
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Hurricaneman
Unregistered
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The mrf also shows a storm in the gulf moving towards west coast of Florida in the 120 to 130 hour range.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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yeah, we got hammered downtown. I'd guess we picked up 2-2.5" in an hour or so. Fox 8 has a day total of 3.21" as of now, so we definitely got some action. Funny note about Edouard on their weather site:
"The remains of TD Edouard will move over Southeast Louisiana late this afternoon and tonight producing locally heavy downpours. Up to 2 inches of rain possible through this evening. "
That's what I said 
Anyway, there was some street flooding on Gravier St. (CBD) about 4". I went out and watched it and smoked a cig, but now it's time to head on out to the gym!
Houston, what are they reporting over there on Fay's impact? I can easily see some localized 20"+ along the coast coming from the storm and the feed after it moves on in. This could get fairly hairy for the Central TX Coast.
Steve
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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J.J.
Unregistered
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Finally see a real center with this thing--near 27.2N, 95.2W, by vis imagery. The center is terribly exposed,of course; if the center doesn't reform, Fay could be just another movie.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well, mebbe, mebbe not. There is an upper low there, Fay is all messed up, maybe vertical stacking is occurring. doesn't look very healthy..another storm in September that look like June or late October. It's an odd season.
IHS,
Bill 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Are really flaring in the Fay outflow--there's no circulation but a nice looking blob..now, what if Fay moved away and left the blob there?...hmmm, models show a storm approaching Fl west coast in 120-144 hrs, hmmmm..NAHHHH!
IHS,
Bill 
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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For it to happen 2 things have to happen and those are if it stalls for more than 2 days and if the upper low to it's west moves away.If those 2 things happen then we will see the first cane of the season but it will be a close call.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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