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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Another day, Another storm
      #28644 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:29 AM

Going into Friday the 17th a new 2004 storm has joined the ranks of it's fellows.. Karl is now a tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic. Karl is officially progged to reach Category 2 status, but I'll take a less than brave step on a limb and call for it to be a major hurricane by Monday. Fortunately modeling unanimously recurves it well out to sea.. which would make it the first storm since Danielle back in mid-August to not threaten any major land areas.
Unfortunately the other two active systems.. Ivan and Jeanne, are both still significant threats to the Southeastern United States. Ivan has weakened to a depression as of the last advisory, but is forecast to make a sweeping anticyclonic loop over the interior South during the weekend.. a dire flooding threat exists in many locations from Alabama north and eastward.. but especially to the mountains of North Georgia up to Western Virginia. There will likely be historic flooding in many locations in this area.
Jeanne is still several days away, but forecast modeling has been consistently taking it to the Southeastern U.S. Right now it is still drenching Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, maintaing a fair degree of organization as it traverses the northern coast of the latter... the storm is officially forecast to move northwestward through the Bahamas over the weekend while reintensifying to a hurricane--it's terminal forecast track is aimed at Georgia and South Carolina right now, but that could change. Late in the forecast period Jeanne will likely lose it's northward component due to a strengthening ridge, and hit the coast while traveling mostly westward. We'll know more this weekend when the results of Jeanne's current interaction with land and the forecast weakening of the ridge due to Ivan are apparent. Jeanne is a small storm that has the ability to rapidly deepen, if conditions warrant.. the current forecast intensity is probably on the conservative side.
The U.S. has been under hurricane threat for much of the last three weeks.. and has already taken two major hits and two category two impacts so far this year (along with a pair of tropical storms and a weakening T.D. Hermine). The Atlantic right now shows no sign of halting the parade of new systems. But a light may be shining for early October.. the quiet MJO phase in the Western Pacific will make it to our side of the world around then.
Until then, stay aware.
HF

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 17 2004 12:47 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Repost from other thread [Re: HanKFranK]
      #28649 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:40 AM

Whoops -- got caught posting these thoughts in the midst of the new thread opening up, so I'll quickly repost here.

Turning in for the night here as well, thankfully with power. Came home to a nice surprise earlier in that the power was restored a full day before they expected it, which is always good. The ice in the freezer and fridge didn't even have time to melt, but I'm certainly glad I had the materials and losses were avoided. I can only hope and pray that everyone to the west made it out alright and that this is the last storm we'll have to deal with as a community this year. Unfortunately, Jeanne may have other designs on that, but this is just getting ridiculous...and we've only gone 6 weeks into the season.

Ivan certainly served up some humble pie on my end and will be a learning experience for all of the forecasters and models involved. Whether the models were too far right and needed to shift left early in its life or too far left and needed to shift right late in its life, the overall errors with this storm are going to be rather large...even in intensity. The NHC did the best they could and proved once again why they are the experts, pinning down a large location that could be affected by the storm with enough time to get prepared as well as pinpointing a region that might come under the gun -- the Mobile/Pensacola area -- a couple of days in advance. They and all other forecasters will always be limited by the data we have available, whether that is in the form of models, observations, or something else entirely, but things are gradually improving. This storm humbled many a forecaster and proved how two competent, respected forecasters can come up with entirely different scenarios as to what will happen and have both come within a fraction of being right...yet both end up wrong.

Best of luck to everyone in the path of this beast, and take care all.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: HanKFranK]
      #28650 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:46 AM

Anyone have an idea how we could track the HIRT-1 truck. Since they seem to know hours in advance of where the eye will make landfall. I know they have the website, but are there any other links to track them on?

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Repost from other thread [Re: Clark]
      #28651 - Fri Sep 17 2004 01:35 AM

To anyone that may have wondered, I am fine, a great story to tell soon!

Coop

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Andrew's Daughter Jeanne???? [Re: danielw]
      #28652 - Fri Sep 17 2004 01:42 AM

Well this evening Jeanne still looks quite impressive for a tropical storm. Shes been interacting with Hispaniola and should move offshore of Haiti during the day on Friday. She should continue on forcast up to near Abaco island or just east of there. This is still where the thinking diverges. Last night and even earlier today I agreed with the models but I didnt want to take it into GA or SC early next week, but I favored slightly that it goes where JB said and thru the keys and into the Central Gulf. Looking at the pattern now and the strong ridge forcasting to form up over the NE into the Mid Atlantic and overall model agreement,, Im now switching over to the solution more so of Jeanne moving almost due north to about 28-29N and 75-77W by Monday evening with her slowing down. Now here is what I feel would happen with this second scenerio,, I think its going to do like what Andrew did but 200 miles up the coast. A turn to the w or even wsw after a jog to the sw will take her W or even WSW making landfall as a Cat 3 between 27N and 28.5N ( A big range since its right now 5-6 days out). A path across the state and entering the gulf and continuing a west path. This is in agreement with the GFS and we all know how outlined these models will be, but that is what I really do see what might happen. Im not throwing out yet the straight shot into the keys by Sunday night if the weakness is pulled further west then forcasted with a movement up near FT Myers or Sarasota before turning more W due to the Ridge coming down to the mid atlantic.
The thing is folks,,the ridge will come down and we are pretty sure it will be pretty strong with a very strong trough over the Rockies and Plains. So there is a 80% chance this is going to HIT the U.S. The Models say GA or SC or even NC right now, but I dont see that happening as they are too fast with her. There is a outside chance she could go into extreme se GA near Jackle Island but that is the farthest N that I could even think and that would be due to it getting up to 31N before the turn. I dont see any reason why this wont be near 140mph at landfall somewhere on the Florida coast. If it does the other solution into the keys and up to Ft Myers then a strong cat 2.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Hope Everyone's Okay! [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #28653 - Fri Sep 17 2004 01:45 AM

I watched the hurricane as it made landfall last night, and all I could think of were those of you who were in it's path. I'm sure that it was extremely difficult to get through it...but knowing that so many of my friends here were getting hit, it was extremely difficult to watch.
I hope everyone is okay...you were all in my thoughts and prayers last night and will continue to be.
Also...didn't want you to think that since I didn't post for the last 2 days didn't mean I didn't care....I did. I just didn't want to clutter up the board and prevent those of you who were looking for info from getting it due to bandwidth problems. Believe me when I say that I was thinking of you all night long.
Will post more tomorrow..hope all of you and your families are okay.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Andrew's Daughter Jeanne???? [Re: scottsvb]
      #28654 - Fri Sep 17 2004 02:00 AM

I don't think that the models have had a good grasp on just how strong that H is north of Florida, which allowed Frances to hit near the Melbourne area, even though the models insisted (most of them anyway) that it would skirt the coast of Eastern Florida and make landfall near GA/SC. I remember that the models were all showing an over-rated weakness with that H, and I don't think it's moved much.
The other thing that worries me is how the SHIPS has consistently underdone the intensity of these storms. Charley, Frances...Ivan. Notice how the newest forecast track shows it as a Cat 2 at landfall at 11pm when it was at a Cat 1 at 5:00pm. The other problem we face is that even though the waters are still pretty warm around NC/SC, the waters are even warmer near Florida, especially in the Gulfstream. I still believe that Frances was a Cat3 (minimum) at landfall, but what was the point at changing it 45 minutes before landfall? I could be wrong. I do know this: Charley ballooned in a matter of hours and went from a Cat 2 to a strong Cat 4 almost 3 hours before landfall. Notice, I did say the models, not the NHC.
Time will tell.
Is it December 1st yet?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Andrew's Daughter Jeanne???? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #28655 - Fri Sep 17 2004 02:26 AM

Frances didnt hit near Melbourne it was WestPalm beach area..Actually Martin County about 80 miles south of Melbourne.

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: HanKFranK]
      #28657 - Fri Sep 17 2004 06:24 AM

Here is a picture of why Florida is under the gun once again with Jeanne. It explains a lot.

MaryAnn JEANNE

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: LadyStorm]
      #28658 - Fri Sep 17 2004 07:24 AM

Right now Jeanne is struggling. Will she survive. Probably. If she doesn't, Florida will be spared another potentially damaging hurricane, for I believe if she manages to come thru the island intact, she will strengthen to a Cat II or III. She will more than likely survive if she drifts more NW'erly, and as HF said, she will strengthen more than guidance shows. Everyone from the Keys to the Carolinas really needs to pay attention and ignore the mets that are saying she will diminish over the island, or recurve ou to sea. That ain't gonna happen since she bought time down in Hispaniola. This will give the ridge more time to build in, and the timeline is critical. Cheers!!

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
NHC track shift [Re: HanKFranK]
      #28659 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:02 AM

The NHC has shifted their track this morning, now looks more of a Florida threat as indicated by Joe B a couple of days ago. Both tracks however assume the tropical cyclone survives the terrain of Hispaniola and the NHC discussion says that not many tropical cyclones do, so we will see.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #28660 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:08 AM

The remmants of Ivan moved very far north, not as anticapated, this gives more of a reason to believe that JB is correct. Since Jeanne is moving so slow, Ivan's not going to be around to create a weakness in that ridge also the NOGAPS showed this yesterday and that is the model I will be watching. It had the remmants of Ivan crossing over the Mid-Atlantic states and into the ocean because the ridge was digging down from a SE direction. Jeanne will continue her WNW direction for about 2 days and then start to move westward, I partially agree with the NHC but I think they have made Jeanne moving to fas. Those are the basic dynamics, and anyone in the Florida Peninsula should be aware of her.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28661 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:27 AM

Keith, the NHC and most models so far, have Jeanne moving NW or NNW for a time, not WNW then W.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT41.KNHC

That turn is due to Ivan maintaing a midlevel circulation over the S.E states, which is also forecast by the models. I stated 2 or more days ago that the models were indicating Ivan would be picked up by a trough in the east, and that has accounted for
Quote:

The remmants of Ivan moved very far north, not as anticapated.


So yes, the models did pick up on this, and the GFS was the first one that did so. The first clue was that it picked up some speed on its approach to the coast.
Anyone forecasting this needs to be careful about saying "Florida will be hit in 5 days". The scenario could unfold in a complex way that causes more than just 1 shift in movement. The wildcard in this is a strong trough moving across the west on Jeanne's approach, and the effect it has on the high pressure aloft off the coast. IF it pushes the high offshore, you could see the storm move NW or NNW, then W, or even WSW, then turn back towards the N.
I am not willing to be a maverick for the sake of ego and say where this is going to hit (a shot at Accuweather). In general, I think the threat area is from Florida to Hatteras.

Edited by MrSpock (Fri Sep 17 2004 08:33 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: MrSpock]
      #28662 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:36 AM

As a note of interest. Even if Jeanne comes out of Hispaniola as a huge depression or a minimum tropical storm and doesn't reorganize very fast, she will still be a huge rain event for an already soggy state of Florida.
My thoughts are that Jeanne will rebuild to hurricane status as she enters the warm waters of the Southern Bahama's.

Is Ivan moving further North than was anticipated. I wonder if Ivan will still hang around the Carolina's as forecast?


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: MrSpock]
      #28663 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:38 AM

Sorry about the direction, the WNW NW all look the same to me when I'm tired I sometimes read backwards. I saw the GFS yesterday and it was mediocore, I'm not to fond of it as I have followed it and it has left me with the totally opposite forecast, that's why I picked the NOGAPS. The GFDL has the storm riding up the coast of Florida and making landfall in Gerogia, to SC just to note and most other models have that happening too. The storm is so small and can be affected by many things rather fast, I almost gave up on tracking the storm yesterday, to many movements involved. I think we should let this one for the experts.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: MrSpock]
      #28664 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:40 AM

What a difference a few hours makes. I go to bed feeling relatively ok about Jeanne's forecast track, and wake up to see it might be making landfall just north of me. Truth be told, growing up in Florida I never get complacent about these things no matter how far away they're forecast to be...lol.

Anyway, just a few quick observations as I haven't had too much time to check models, etc. Right now Jeanne looks to be pretty stationary over Hispaniola. She seems to have almost hit a wall and stopped all forward movement. Whether she can get unstuck isn't exactly a sure thing in my mind. Also, most of the models have had a hard time factoring strength and time/placement of the ridges and troughs into their extended forecasts. I realize that anything past 3 days has diminished accuracy, and one can see the problems the models had with Ivan with regard to the ridges and trough to its north. That's why the forecast track kept shifting further and further west. Obviously every storm is different, but I have noticed the difficulties with which the models have predicted the troughs and ridges and that seems to be a constant(remember Mr. Stewart even gave us some insight on that).

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Repost from other thread [Re: Clark]
      #28665 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:47 AM

Thanks Clark... it makes sense now. For some strange reason, I thought the highs and lows would extend up through the troposphere. I know better than this, as the outflow from a low would have to affect the layers above, as if the air went to the center of a low, without having an outflow, then the low would die. I guess the same is true with a high... if the winds continued to blow outward without replacement, the high would go away. So, the different altitudes cannot be all uniform. Sometimes, my mouth (or, in this case, my hands) think without consulting with my brain!

One more question for you.... a lot of these people that have meteorologist after their name, but spend their time doing field reporting.... are they real meteorologists? My thought is perhaps some Universities have 'broadcast meteorology' programs, where you take mostly communications courses and a couple met classes and voila, you are a BA level meterorologist. I am not trying to insult anyone here, just many of the people I have seen on TV have disappointed me with their technical abilities, as they mostly just repeated someone else's forecasts. Then look at 'chief meteorologists' or NWS forecasters that do actual forecasting. I'm guessing have a more science-based met degree (B.S., M.S., or Ph.D.) and therefore, know what's going on. The short version of my question is do all meteorologists (those in-the-field or at-the-desk for TWC versus those that actually forecast) follow the same educational pathway?

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28666 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:47 AM

If Jeanne gets ripped apart, it will be steered by the lower level flow, but it seems like this year land doesn't matter as much. I think it was Gaston this year that actually started to reorganize while over Va.
Systems like this are the most difficult to forecast because their intensity is dependent on a track that isn't well-established yet, with weak steering currents, and sparse data. That's why I have been taking Accuweather to task. In the end, they may be right, but I just don't understand the need to be a hero. The line between hero in goat is a fine one. The way in my opinion, the Hatteras solution comes into play, is if we have an evolution similar to Isabel last year.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
The link above shows the 500 mb pattern on Isabel's approach, and as per my post last night, yes, it is in a different location, but in both cases, there was troughing in the Plains moving eastward, and a high aloft offshore, and a strong surface high over N.E. In Jeanne's case, the hi offshore is actually at least partially onshore, but any shift eastward of this feature would allow Jeanne to threaten higher up on the coast. Not saying this will happen, but this is a scenario that has to be watched. Ironically, the longer Jeanne sits out there, I think the better the chances of that happening are, as eventually, that trof will reach the coast.
Hey, I'll take this one if it spares Fla.
Also, this is far from a perfect analog, so maybe I should just wait and see how it plays out. I am just thinking out loud.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28667 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:53 AM

Some years some models do better than other years. I almost stopped looking at the NOGAPS because for a while, it didn't do well, and the GFS had the upper hand. This year, the GFS has had a tougher time, but I still have to give it props for picking up Ivan's interaction with the trof in the east.
I can give you another real-life example about picking models.....
In 1996 (I think that was the snowy one) I said that "If it begins with an "E", it's good enough for me". The ECMWF and ETA did very well with the winter storms that year. So well, in fact, that the ETA was the only model predicting sig. snow for my area, I went with it based on an H2O image that told me the other models were out to lunch, and it verified very well. Got 7" on that one when 1" was the original prediction.
Some models handle PNA patterns better, or La Nina situations better.
El Nino is a whole different story because there is an extra jet that has to be accounted for in the forecasts, and increases difficulty.

That is a long-winded way of saying, don't get locked into one model. Some years, they do better than others.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28668 - Fri Sep 17 2004 08:56 AM

The NOGAPS takes the storm into Georgia, not South Florida

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