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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Jeanne: another Debby? [Re: Rabbit]
      #28669 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:01 AM

Jeanne over Hispaniola
Debby over Hispaniola

Jeanne is now being sheared and the satellite appearance is rather poor due to that and interaction with land, similar to Debby in 2000; Jeanne's LLC is also exposed and the system's overall satellite appearance is very similar to Debby; both systems were forecast to regain hurricane intensity; and both systems were forecast to move north as they continued westward

leave the visible image open and click this to compare the two and see on WV where the center is



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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: MrSpock]
      #28670 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:04 AM

Thanks for the insight. Right now I believe the PNA is postive so that could be a reason for the bad GFS. Talk about snow can't wait for it and some nor'easters to get us trapped in our houses (just kidding). This year I'm going to start tracking winter storms, so I'll be looking at the models really haven't had that much experince tracking these storms but you obviously have. See ya by da Jersey Shores, as I would say it.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Rabbit]
      #28671 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:07 AM

Where did I say south Florida in that previous post?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne: another Debby? [Re: Rabbit]
      #28672 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:07 AM

Debby and Jeanne is a poor comparison. Debby was affected by strong low level easterlies that were driving her WSW. This is NOT the case with Jeanne. That said there is a less than even chance that she will not survive the island and the westerly shear that IS present. I was surprised that the NHC kept her winds as high as they did, as convection is poor at the moment. Again, if she survives and moves WNW she will be trouble. The next 24 hours will tell the tale. Cheers!!

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28673 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:09 AM

Yesterday's Accuweather forecast showed SFL

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Rabbit]
      #28674 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:16 AM

I guess I should have made it more clear, I partially agree with JB on his overall track but not his landfall location. I think that is to early to tell but I said eveyone in the Florida Peninusla needs to be aware because they might see the NHC forecast and not think it's hitting them; not everyone avidly tracks these storms. We'll know better in another two days or so when it's away from hispanola, I think it will survive. Mr. Spock watch out for the rain today, looks like were in for some rain bring the umbrella.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28675 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:39 AM

I'd be thrilled to take some of that rain from the areas that have had problems.....I think I heard there were 2 flooding deaths in N.C. It would have been that much worse had it not been moving.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28676 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:51 AM

I agree with you that there will be an impact somewhere in the SE with the threat greatest between Jupiter inlet - Florida and South Carolina. That will depend on the timing when the high causes Jeanne to start her westard track.

Perhaps JB and/or Accuweather wasn't that far off afterall.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Sep 17 2004 09:56 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28677 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:53 AM

One thing should also be noted, Accuweathers forecast path is not nessecarily what JB is saying. They even have their own little disagreements internally. If you listen to what JB is thinking, he thinks it could go through the Florida Straights into the Gulf. Accuweathers track is traversing central Florida. Only a little south of what NHC does now. Accuweather is putting out a seven day track for some reason though.

--------------------
Jim


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
West Gulf? [Re: MrSpock]
      #28678 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:54 AM

Everything I'm seeing has Jeanne somewhere taking a more westerly track. If she ends up in the gulf, are we actually talking about her possibly making it all the way to Texas? I guess this question is a liitle far fetched but the models are not going out that far so I have to ask.

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luki
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Keith234]
      #28679 - Fri Sep 17 2004 09:57 AM

coming to the board for some insight here,i have given up on my local met as of this morning.now i know a 5 day is by no means accurate,but this one has me nervous especially in light of what the local met is saying,on the 6 am news he shows the track,puts his hand in the middel of the cone which looked to be arond Daytona and says anything north of this will not happen,which ok fine he put JAX out of a direct hit but also puts us once again on the "bad" side of the storm.how at 5 days out can he be so sure of whats not going to happen? what are yalls thoughts on how far north this thing could possibly go,i do realize its hard to say but any insight would be great.FL does not need another hit and my concerns for JAX taking a hit grow with each new storm,its almost as these past storms have been "practice" for us up here.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: West Gulf? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28680 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:00 AM

I don't think Texas is a viable option due to the trof that will be traversing the country. The only exception would be if Jeanne disintegrated into an open wave and that's how the low-level flow was going.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: luki]
      #28681 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:02 AM

I dont see it going to TX shawn, infact the chances are slim that TX gets anything this year. By weds-Thurs a very strong trough in the Rockes and Plains moves SE and will pick up Jeanne, wherever she is in the gulf. Farthest west she can go is central La. That is 7 days out.

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: scottsvb]
      #28682 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:04 AM

Thanks, that is what I wanted to hear!

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ABWATCHER
Unregistered




Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: luki]
      #28683 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:06 AM

I heard that Ivan was looping back and would keep Jeanne from going too far north, opening the possibility for a landfall around St. Augustine, kind of like Dora in 1964.

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luki
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: ABWATCHER]
      #28684 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:09 AM

from the stories ive heard Dora did a number on the this area,anyone know what cat she was

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Jeanne looking pretty ragged right now [Re: MrSpock]
      #28685 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:09 AM

My fIrst look at Jeanne, not to impressive on the GOES vis sat loop, not sure if I can even find the center on the last frame.... appeared to be an LLC just moving off the island to the north prior to the last frame but it kinda just dissapeared on the last loop,,, hmmmm... and this was in the specific location of the last NHC advisory position for the center... if so, all the convection is on the east side of the storm... the big island is playing havoc on the storm right now and if its going to survive it better get back to the water quick....

also think this system has a very good chance of another Florida landfall... the bermuda ridge will again be the factor for this scenario, the ridge has been the player of the year for sure, and I think will it do it again to Florida... stay tuned... I don't think Ivan will cause enough weakness in the ridge to cause Jeanne to go up the east coast...if she survives she will likely impact Florida....

I'm two for two on my Frances and Ivan long term forecasts of 10 days out and really nailed em good... .. . I'm long overdue for a healthy buffet of crow at any time, can't let LIPhil eat all the crow, I'm sure he's ready to eat some steak about now... at least crow is probably low fat and probably good for ya... I hope for Florida's sake that this time I'm the crow eater... not willing to forecast a GOM event yet... best guess on that is 50/50....way to early..

need to start doing a little model research to fine tune things...

on a side note: got some excellent recommendations and input on my request for information on generators, thanks to all for your assistance...

Frank P..


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: luki]
      #28686 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:11 AM

Dora was a Cat III--115 mph

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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Repost from other thread [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #28687 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:16 AM

Storm Coop(in my mind you are called Big Dawg cause of your avatar), I'm glad you are ok. I am waiting with interest for your story!
Helen


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Rabbit]
      #28688 - Fri Sep 17 2004 10:17 AM

CABLE NEWS RACE
WED., SEPT 15, 2004

WEATHER CH 3,500,000 [VIEWERS]
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,200,000
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 2,800,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 2,300,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,200,000
CNN LARRY KING 1,400,000
CNN AARON BROWN 1,100,000
MSNBC HARDBALL 685,000
CNN PAULA ZAHN 643,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 570,000
MSNBC SCARBOROUGH 518,000
CNN COOPER 359,000


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