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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Ho hum [Re: Frank P]
      #28732 - Fri Sep 17 2004 11:52 AM

Is it just me or is each succeeding storm becoming more and more frustrating to predict? Jeanne seems to be holding her own, but barely, but she has also decided to sit and spin, further inundating the poor bastids in Hispaniola...

I'm not making ANY calls on this storm. Frank can have my crow this time...

I've had it...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Ivan Storm Surge? [Re: Frank P]
      #28733 - Fri Sep 17 2004 11:54 AM

Quote:

I agree with you but would like to add this point...... but NONE of the sections were totally distroyed or missing like in Florida, maybe this bridge was built better than the Florida one, it certainly was newer at the time.. ... yeah, it took a long time to repair but I think they just realigned the bridge segments, they did not have to rebuild it, like they will have to do in Florida... wind does not do that type of damage... that's storm surge... and it was pretty bad with Ivan...


I whole-heartedly agree, it *was* surge damage. From the photos of the Ivan damage, the lower sections were the ones damaged, the higher overpass portions were apparantly undamaged....the Biloxi bridge had the most damage to the highest parts of the bridge, 40+ feet above the water level, and the lowest sections, like the old bridge were probably under water during the most violent of the weather. Either way, I definitely feel that both bridges suffered from CAT-V storm surge levels, regardless of wind speed....I agree that wind could not have caused this type of damage. I was stationed as an instructor at KAFB in BIloxi during Camille, and I see many similarities to the damage and track and power of Ivan to Camille other possibly than wind speed at landfall, the tornados, surge, damage signatures all give me nightmares again. I truly empathise with all who had to live through this 'Camille revisited' experience with Ivan.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Another day, Another storm [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28734 - Fri Sep 17 2004 11:59 AM

Clockwise forces on the southwest and northeast sides are beginning to strip away the outflows. She is being pulled apart lengthwise, and will need to regroup if she makes it back to the water. I see both intensity and track forecasts being adjusted as a result.

Sure would like to get more input from our resident experts on this observation...


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Ho hum [Re: LI Phil]
      #28735 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:00 PM

Last three storms have been forecast with great agony by NHC. Here's the latest track map translated to plain english.

No confidence beyond current position (my opinion).



Full size available at www.skeetobite.com


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Ho hum [Re: LI Phil]
      #28736 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:07 PM

maybe we'll get lucky with this one LIPhil... maybe she's just fade away... boy, wouldn't that be welcomed, even for a hard core tracker like me, she just dies a slow death down there and I'll be a happy camper, along with a million others... I just can't imagine poor Florida getting hit with another hurricane... their luck just has to change... maybe its beginning now.... maybe not...

that being said, what's left to hit in Florida.... north florida and the south sections of Florida have yet to take an eastern quad hit from a cane... maybe they're next in line.... I sure hope not...


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Repost from other thread [Re: Terra]
      #28737 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:14 PM

Terra -- not sure if someone else has answered your question, but the short answer is no, they don't all follow the same pathway.

For instance, here at FSU until this year, there was two options: the applied option or the graduate prep option. The applied option meant you could get out of 2nd level Atmospheric Physics & Dynamics courses while taking a bunch of technical electives; the graduate prep option was straight-up meteorology designed for academic/research progress. Most weathercasters took the applied option. Some other schools have similar programs, while others have schools/programs devoted exclusively to broadcast meteorology.

Some people on the Weather Channel and a few across the nation (usually weekend meteorologists in small markets) have no weather background whatsoever and are just personalities. Alexandra Steele has no background in meteorology, for instance, and I know of a couple of people in NC that have been doing weather on TV for years but never had any training.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ho hum [Re: Frank P]
      #28738 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:15 PM

Looks like Jeanne's LLC is going to the NW off the island...except she forgot her thunderstorms...hmm...i am thinking a Debby type end to this storm.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ho hum [Re: Frank P]
      #28739 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:15 PM

Hell, I'd even take a hit up here if it spares Florida...don't want that, but anything's better than them getting hit again.

Me, Spock & Keith are about to feel Ivan's remnants...could be 2-5" depending with some nasty downpours, but nothing in any way, shape or form resembling what those poor folks in Pensacola and surrounding areas faced.

If the NHC's track for Ivan is correct, we're talking flooding of biblical proportions for the appalachians...

Jeanne, Jeanne, go away...and DON'T come again another day.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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AugustaDawg
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Re: What the ... [Re: BeachBum]
      #28740 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:16 PM

Beach Bum, thanks for the reply. I'm going to be driving down I-75 from Georgia so I think we're going to give it a shot.

Unless something changes in the next 24 hours, we're going forward.


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storm chaser
Unregistered




Re: Ho hum [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #28741 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:17 PM

Skeet,
Do you think that is really going to happen?


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Mets [Re: Clark]
      #28742 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:21 PM

>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology

Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.

Sorry.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Mets [Re: LI Phil]
      #28743 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:24 PM

You guys sure know your TV personalities well. How do you get info so fast LI phil?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Mets [Re: LI Phil]
      #28744 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:25 PM

Quote:

>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology

Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.

Sorry.




I think you meant Bush's military record... Oops sorry forgot he doesnt have one..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Mets [Re: LI Phil]
      #28745 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:26 PM

or Bush's National Guard Record...ok now we are even LOL sorry had to do it....you left that one open LI PHIL...ok i will stop now.

Edited by Justin in Miami (Fri Sep 17 2004 12:28 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Ho hum [Re: LI Phil]
      #28746 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:27 PM

It isn't just you!

Here are about three scenarios for Jeanne. I'm not going to say which one I believe the most, just present them for all of you, mainly because I haven't the foggiest idea what is going to happen beyond 2 days or so (a slow motion WNW-NW, assuming the storm does not get torn apart by Hispaniola).

1) Ivan moves as projected by the last NHC paths, diving southward in the Carolinas. Ivan has the potential to move off shore into the Gulf Stream, as predicted by a couple of the models (GFS, Eta) this morning, while Jeanne is drawn northward by the boundary associated with Ivan. The two systems come close enough to each other to result in a partial fujiwhara effect, resulting in Ivan being drawn S & SW along the eastern coast of SC & Ga and Jeanne being slingshot north & NE, then NW towards the Outer Banks & Delmarva.

2) Ivan moves NE with the predominant flow, being picked up by the trough entering the eastern US and sparing the Appalachians a major flooding event. The boundry dropped behind the storm is enough to...
a) Steer the storm northward, possibly grazing the Outer Banks.
b) Result in a slightly more northward component to motion, but not recurving the storm. This would likely result in...
i) A continued NW motion to landfall.
ii) A westward turn at the end of the period as the ridge from the north builds south and around the storm.
c) Have no impact on the storm and leave it in a region of weak steering currents, sending it WNW to the edge of the subtropical ridge.

3) Jeanne gets ripped apart over Hispaniola and continues W/WNW with the predominant low-level flow as an open wave/inverted trough.

4) Ivan has no impact on Jeanne, leaving the storm to its own devices in the short-term and up to a later trough to pick up the storm in the long-term. This is pretty much the same scenario as in iii) above.

I'll leave it up to you all to determine which one you feel is most likely, as all bets are off here right now. I will say that I don't see i) as very likely -- but is certainly possible. Given the way this season has gone, who knows. In any event, everyone from the Keys to Hatteras & the Delmarva needs to watch this one.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Mets [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #28747 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology

Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.

Sorry.




I think you meant Bush's military record... Oops sorry forgot he doesnt have one..




I think there should be another forum for this kind of stuff. Everyone forgets Bush's last four years of military service as Commander in Chief. Turns out with that experience, he has more active duty than his opponent.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Ho hum [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28748 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:29 PM

Justin the island disrupted her mid level rotation as well, she is not stack very well at the moment... midlevel circulation lagging behind quite a bit as she moves off the island to the nw... now once over water lets see what, if anything, happens next... sure looks bad at the moment.... can she pull it together??? any other season I'd say she's done, but this year... who knows..

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Ho hum [Re: storm chaser]
      #28749 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:29 PM

Quote:

Skeet,
Do you think that is really going to happen?




I'm a graphics/web/db guy. However... after crunching coordinates from the past 100 or so advisories and then watching what really happened... no.

I'm working on an animation that demonstrates the life cycle of the NHC forecasts from 5 days out until landfall. Should be pretty interesting when done.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Mets [Re: LI Phil]
      #28750 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:30 PM

Hmmm...they've certainly updated her bio since last I checked it a few months ago. Before, that first paragraph wasn't there. Alas, I'll eat crow.

From what I understand though, Fairfield's program is only environmental science, while W. Conn. St. is a broadcast meteorology program. But alas, I stand corrected.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ho hum [Re: LI Phil]
      #28751 - Fri Sep 17 2004 12:31 PM

I don't think the rain will materlize today, prob tommorow as it is my homecoming parade. The weather ruins everything for me. On a weather note, someone said that Accuweather's track was too fast, I don't think that at all, once the model figure out what type of ridge were dealing with, then it will speed that thing up.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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