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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Model Run Down and Trends [Re: Keith234]
      #28978 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:22 AM

Keith, I agree. 75% of the models now show Jeanne turning hard to the east, not west toward FL, once it gets somewhere between 26N and 28N... only UKMET is showing an about face and a track toward SE FL.

Be interestting to see if the NHC adjusts it projections eastward at 11:00...

And how about Ivan.. Making some really good progress for a stalled front! They'll be some cyclone case studies coming out of the 2004 season, for sure...


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: She's a fighter [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #28979 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:23 AM

I agree with you totally.As I posted a couple of days ago, think back to the days of the earliest 20th century when a Category 5 was moving in off the coast of Texas and the storm kept getting stronger and stronger until thousands lost thier lives. No advanced warning..no nothing. These people probably just thought it was a thunderstorm moving in...I don't really know. The NHC always puts margins of errors on their forecasts out there but we do live in a time when evryone expects answers right away and those answers had better be right or else. I would fault Accuweather for one thing though and that is to get on national tv and come across to everyone as if their forecasts are written in stone. It's arrogant and irresponsible. For all the defenders of those guys out there I would just say this...I know what I saw and heard when I saw them on Fox and MSNBC and I am entitled to my opinion about them. I may not know much but their website has been deleted from my favorites from here on out. You can have them.

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anonymouse
Unregistered




Re: She's a fighter [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #28980 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:24 AM

GuppieG--one of the best, well thought out, pertinent and significant posts I have read in a long time. Eloquent in it's simplicity, right to the heart of the matter.

Kudos---agree with you 100%. It's an exciting time, meteorologically speaking.

sc


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Skeetobite's forecast wins! [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #28981 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:30 AM

Quote:

My husband and I had a big laugh this morning when we looked at NHC's forecast for Jeanne: with it's big "circle of uncertainty" it looked like the tongue-in-cheek forecast that Skeetobite made yesterday!

Skeetobite's forecast can be found on page 8 of this current thread.
And for comparison...HRC's 5-day forecast map


His forecast maps are great, aren't they? He obviously has a sense of humor too. He did a great depiction of the NHC's uncertainty in their official forecast.

Actually, Skeetobite's 'forecast' maps *are*, to the best of his ability, a depiction of the official NHC forecasts transferred to a much more detailed map showing landmarks and roads and other features that help us 'unwashed masses' locate ourselves relative to the forecast track and because of the way he shows the wind fields, it gives one the ability to asses the possible effects of the storm winds for our specific location IF the NHC forecast proves accurate.

I think his maps are a valuable depiction of the fact that storms are not lines of points but a wide *area* of effect, a swath. Too many people think if a storm 'misses' them by a few miles, they are OK....The folks around (and especially to the East) of Mobile will attest to the fact 'it was not just a point of landfall'. Of course, the cente line *is* important as the effects to the right of the path are often much worse than those to the left, sspecially where storme surge is a factor.

Anyway, lest we forget, Skeetobite is not a weather forecaster, but has great talant translating the OFFICIAL forecast from the NHC into pretty and I might add, darned accurate, depictions of that forecast in an easy to understand format.

I think it would be nice if the NHC could hire him, or his firm, to supply them with his maps so they could put them up on their official board. It would also be great if the networks and newspapers would syndicate his depictions when they show the path and discuss the forecast with their viewers and readers.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Model Run Down and Trends [Re: Keith234]
      #28982 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:30 AM

I guess the old saying that you're not safe until it gets north of you might not apply in this particular situation.

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Skeetobite's forecast wins! [Re: Ricreig]
      #28983 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:33 AM

When I showed my wife one of his maps during Ivan she thought it was awesome. Now when we look she says "Where is the map with the yellow line down the middle?"

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Model Run Down and Trends [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28984 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:38 AM

Thanks, they will prob shift their forecast to the east instead of the west, there's like a cut off line for Jeanne moving west or east. Got to go my powers about to go, very bad thunderstorm.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: She's a fighter [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28986 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:05 AM

I don't think I can explain Joe B., but I hope him, and one of our local tv mets learned something in this storm, and that is not to represent anything as fact as far as a 5 day forecast.
I must preface by saying I have ties to the NWS as I am a Skywarn Spotter, and I report climate obs (Type A station) also, and have had various contacts with NWS mets for quite a while, and it has given me a great deal of respect for what they do, and how tough their job is. In fact, on an issue, my bias is to side with them. I have disagreed with their forecasts before, and probably will in the future, sometimes that will be right, sometimes not. Fortunately, it is usually not over something as serious as a cat 3+ storm, in which case i always defer to the experts.
Disclaimer out of the way, the WPHL (I think that's their ID) said a few days ago that we would not see any effects whatsoever from Ivan, as a cold front was going to push south (of NJ) and keep it down there. Pittsburgh got 5 inches of rain, Philly suburbs several inches of rain, and numerous tornadoes in S.C. Pa, and N.C Md.
I stated on here that I felt that was an irresponsible report, and I disagreed with it, and gave my reasons, which did verify. His mistake was making a bold forecast with authority when HE DIDN"T NEED TO.
As far as JB, he also DIDN"T NEED TO say cat II or better in S. Fla. for Jeanne in the time frame he did. One of his co-workers was so emphatic on Greta one night, I posted in disgust. I hope they continue to trend away from Fla, and while nothing is resolved definitively, their scenario isn't working out right now.
They have probably gotten more right than I ever have, but it doesn't excuse certain things.
I hope that those mentioned in the above examples learn something from this-1 instance, an all-clear from bad weather was given incorrectly, and the other, a "warning" was given that didn't verify.
The first example is a little more forgivable because the next night he can recant, especially that far out, but example no. 2....
Again, I am doing some venting, if it is not seen as pertinent to the board, feel free to delete......but I do feel a little better.


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: She's a fighter [Re: MrSpock]
      #28987 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:15 AM

Their drained too...

"000
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF Ivan. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF Ivan AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS." Ivan?


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: She's a fighter [Re: MrSpock]
      #28988 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:22 AM

This board is good for that type of venting. You said some things worth thinking about.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: She's a fighter [Re: MrSpock]
      #28989 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:22 AM

I'll vent a little more on this subject myself. It seems to me, from what I've seen, that after their first "written in stone" forecast" doesn't verify then there is never an admittance that we were wrong here and here is an updated forecast of what we now believe will happen. It's like it's all just forgotten and they just move on with their new "written in stone" forecast. You see, in my opinion, if you are going to go out on a limb and predict something is going to happen with "absolute authority" then when you are wrong you ought to be able to humble yourself just a little and admit It. Besides, what is so wrong witth putting out an NHC projected path but then saying " Here, in our opinion, is what we believe it will do". Once again, I know what I saw and heard..."This storm WILL hit the US!"...right, Mr. Spock? The fact is...nodody knows.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: She's a fighter [Re: richisurfs]
      #28991 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:31 AM

that she is. new thread, folks.. direct your comments and ideas over that way.
HF 1428z18september


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: She's a fighter [Re: Kimster]
      #28992 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:31 AM

Quote:

"000
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF Ivan. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF Ivan AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS." Ivan?





Yeah, Ivan is the "King" to this "Pawn"(Jeanne) next move

Quote:


IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR Ivan'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS.





and if you think this is going ot go away anytime soon:

Quote:

WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL ENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.





Edited by Takingforever (Sat Sep 18 2004 10:34 AM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: She's a fighter [Re: richisurfs]
      #28993 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:34 AM

absolutely....it's almost as if that if it were never mentioned, it never happened, just like when if you hear a lie often enough, it tends to be believed as truth.
Anyone who has ever written one has been wrong.
That usually has a humbling effect.


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